Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.     

Comparing theories to explain e-commerce adoption

E-commerce is a strategy for rapid growth, especially by small and medium sized businesses (SMEs). However, the adoption rate of e-commerce by SMEs in Latin America is still undersized. The authors compare the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the theory of reasoned action (TRA) using structural equation modeling to determine which is better at predicting e-commerce adoption intentions among 210 SME managers/owners in Chile. Contrary to previous research with American respondents, the study does not find significant differences between the two theories. Thus, academics should select the more parsimonious model (TRA) to study e-commerce adoption issues in developing countries.     

Democracy, foreign direct investment and natural resources

Empirical studies that examine the impact of democracy on foreign direct investment (FDI) assume that the relationship between democracy and FDI is the same for resource exporting and non-resource exporting countries. This paper examines whether natural resources in host countries alter this relationship. We estimate a linear dynamic panel-data model using data from 112 developing countries over the period 1982-2007. We find that democracy promotes FDI if and only if the value of the share of minerals and oil in total exports is less than some critical value. We identify 90 countries where an expansion of democracy may enhance FDI and 22 countries where an increase in democratization may reduce FDI. We also find that the effect of democracy on FDI depends on the size and not the type of natural resources.     

Perceived Organizational Motives and Consumer Responses to Proactive and Reactive CSR

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has emerged as an effective way for firms to create favorable attitudes among consumers. Although prior research has addressed the direct influence of proactive and reactive CSR on consumer responses, this research hypothesized that consumers’ perceived organizational motives (i.e., attributions) will mediate this relationship. It was also hypothesized that the source of information and location of CSR initiative will affect the motives consumers assign to a firms’ engagement in the initiative. Two experiments were conducted to test these hypotheses. The results of Study 1 indicate that the nature of a CSR initiative influences consumer attribution effects and that these attributions act as mediators in helping to explain consumers’ responses to CSR. Study 2 suggests that the source of the CSR message moderates the effect of CSR on consumer attributions. The mediating influence of the attributions as well as the importance of information source suggests that proper communication of CSR can be a viable way to inculcate positive corporate associations and purchase intentions.     

Children aged 9-14 living in disadvantaged areas in England: Opportunities and barriers for cycling

The aim of this paper is to take a holistic perspective to explore levels of cycling and opportunities and barriers to increase children’s safer cycling in disadvantaged areas in England. The study was one part of a larger study which explored the factors underlying the high level of road traffic casualties especially among children in the most disadvantaged areas of England and to explore how this impacts on mobility and quality of life. The methods involved a cross sectional survey comprising school based questionnaire surveys with children aged 9-14 and focus groups with parents who had children within this age range. The surveys were conducted in 2007 and the focus groups during 2008. 4286 children completed the survey and eight focus groups were held. Bike ownership (77%) was high, use in previous week moderate (39%) but only 2% cycled to school. Ownership was significantly lower in minority ethnic groups. Despite young children’s strong preference to travel by cycle (30%) than walk or go by car, most parents felt it was too hazardous. It is unlikely that these findings would be any different from the rest of England, however the combination of environmental and social factors may elevate the risks for young cyclists in these areas. This paper concludes that a number of barriers exist to increasing levels of cycling among children living in disadvantaged areas particularly amongst ethnic groups. These barriers could be addressed by environmental modifications to reduce speeds and by reducing the levels of antisocial driving and riding in residential areas and around destinations where children travel, by providing cycle training to improve children’s skills and parent’s confidence, and by providing secure storage facilities for bikes. Until these barriers are addressed it is unlikely that cycling will increase despite the strong preferences children have to travel by bike. Such preferences to cycle provide an opportunity for local authorities to act on.     

公共娱乐场所从业人员生殖健康服务的调查分析--以长沙市为例

本研究探讨计划生育服务网络为公共娱乐场所提供生殖健康服务的干预模式。分析了基线调查数据。娱乐场所从业人员是一个高流动性的年轻群体,生殖保健知识欠缺,对性病艾滋病预防的认识仍有误区;他们的性观念开放,部分从业人员涉及商业性行为,已经成为传播性病艾滋病的高风险桥梁人群。基线调查为进一步开展生殖健康服务找到了干预重点和适宜的工作方式。     

The effects of product knowledge on the evaluation of warranteed brands

This study explores the effects of consumer knowledge on respondents' evaluations of both known and unknown brands that include either a 2-year or a 20-year warranty. Both experts and nonexperts evaluated warranty as more important than brand name in their product quality decision. Warranty length was positively correlated with product quality perceptions for both known and unknown brands. With the unknown brand, nonexperts perceived significant improvement in product quality when the warranty length was increased from 2 to 20 years. For the known brand, nonexperts perceived little difference in quality for the two warranty lengths. Experts indicated no significant differences in perceived quality, given the four brand/warranty-length conditions. The results indicate that warranty length is most heavily weighted as a cue to product quality when consumers are not highly knowledgeable, and the brand name is not well known. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Applications of amine gelling agents in fire technology

A novel gelatin system for use in oil spills at sea provides rapid immobilization of liquids upon demand.