Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Quantity Surcharges on Groceries

A quantity surcharge exists when the unit cost of a given brand is higher for a large package than for a small one. This paper examines some product and household characteristics that influence observed quantity surcharging practices. Results indicate that the propensity to buy a large package of a product is positively influenced by the extent of a household's usage of that product, procurement cost, and carrying capacity and is negatively influenced by the propensity to price search. A retailer's decision to levy a quantity surcharge is, in turn, influenced by demand for the product, the propensity to buy large packages, and to some extent the product's carrying cost.