Group decision-making: Head-count versus intensity of preference

This paper puts forth a framework for reshaping the group decision-making process. The proposed framework extends from the usual one-issue-at-a-time decision-making to one that involves several related issues simultaneously. Weaknesses of the traditional majority voting mechanism are first identified, and then a different voting method that takes each individual voter's sentiment into account is discussed. Specifically, a decision-maker is asked to express his/her intensity of preference for the issues encountered. Three hierarchical structures—benefits, costs, and risks—are developed to evaluate the alternatives. Due to the nature of pairwise comparisons and synthesis, the proposed method is amenable to consensus building and has higher reliability and consistency. It can be used for candidate selection, e.g. governmental election, when a large population is involved. It is also effective for resource allocation and prioritization when a small group or business is concerned. We believe the proposed approach has potential for resolving deficiencies of the conventional voting mechanism, and can be applied to many real-world problems. Its implementation on the Internet is also discussed.     

Implications of variant efficiency measures for policy evaluations in UK higher education

Policy goals in UK higher education encourage the publicly funded universities to become more-specialised and larger in size without compromising output quality. Efficiency gains are expected to flow from this increased specialisation in accordance with universities’ comparative research and teaching strengths. Mergers to reap further gains from economies of scale are also being actively encouraged. Given this scenario, the paper investigates whether best-practice efficiency measurement based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) provides empirical support for the current policy goals. It also assesses whether such support is dependent on the specific type of efficiency measure used in the DEA modelling. This assessment finds that a selection of (nine) commonly used, variant efficiency measures generally support the current policy goals. The paper also uses the principal-agent framework to explore the issues involved in using computed DEA-based efficiency scores for policy evaluations and possible funding guidance in UK higher education. This highlights empirically how policy-makers and universities can have very different preferences about which efficiency measure is to be used for policy evaluations and possible funding guidance.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

Policy options for afforestation in Flanders

This paper analyses current and alternative afforestation policy instruments in Flanders. First we select forest sites that maximize net social benefits given a constraint on the total area of new forests and then we select policy instruments that yield this optimal combination of sites. For each policy option, we calculate the associated costs for landowners and government as well as net social benefits for society. Our empirical illustration shows that the welfare gain is considerable if the afforestation subsidy is conditioned on an objective criterion rather than a case-by-case approach. Our results also show that it is worthwhile to consider alternative policy instruments, such as auctions, not previously used in Belgian legislation.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

A substitution orbit model of competitive innovations

Successful innovation and diffusion of technology can be attributed to the identification of the orbit of emerging new technologies that complement or substitute for existing technologies. This dynamism resembles the co-evolution process in an ecosystem. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, the complex interplay between competition and cooperation, typically observed in predator-prey systems, create a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system, this sophisticated balance can provide suggestive ideas for identifying an optimal orbit of competitive innovations with complement or substitution dynamism.Prompted by such a sophisticated balance in an ecosystem, this paper analyzes the optimal orbit of competitive innovations and, on the basis of an application of Lotka-Volterra equations, it reviews substitution orbits of Japan's monochrome to color TV system, fixed telephones to cellular telephones, cellular telephones to mobile Internet access service, and analog to digital TV broadcasting. On the basis of substitution orbits analyses, it attempts to extract suggestions supportive to identifying an optimal policy option in a complex orbit leading to expected orbit.Key findings include policy options that are effective in controlling parameters for Lotka-Volterra equations leading to expected orbit.     

Embedded industrial production systems: Lessons from waste management in zinc production

To meet the sustainability challenge private companies must implement corporate strategies and adopt novel technologies. The technical and social embeddedness of industrial production systems, however, complicates these systems' transition towards sustainability. In the paper, mechanisms and conditions are reported for the development and implementation of waste management options in embedded industrial production systems. The focus is on the Dutch zinc production industry, which had to deal with a major waste problem; the generation of jarosite. The industry's options were to increase the jarosite waste storage capacity, to develop a jarosite treatment process or to switch to a zinc-ore of low-iron content whereby no jarosite waste would be generated anymore. Required conditions appeared to be a combination of technological capability and technical embedding and favourable economics. Case study research, however, revealed that adequate stakeholder management is crucial to address social pressure exerted and to obtain external acceptance for any transition strategy. Whilst appropriate, internal technological capabilities are important, effective interactions with and enrolment of various firm-external actors are crucial. In the case of zinc, access to the heterogeneous external actor network was critical for the development of the jarosite treatment solution direction. In conclusion, both the technical, organizational and social embedding of new technologies are crucial for successful implementation.     

Managing academic innovation in Taiwan: Towards a ‘scientific-economic’ framework

Since the passage of the Science and Technology Basic Law in 1999, Taiwanese universities have taken a more “scientific-economic” approach to protect and commercialize their research. This research mainly examines innovation activities such as patenting, licensing, and incubated startups in the context of Taiwanese higher education institutions (HEIs). The “scientific-economic” framework used to analyze the strategic aspects influencing these academic innovations includes (1) intellectual property managerial capabilities, (2) the strength of external industrial partnerships, (3) the university entrepreneurial orientation, and (4) government research policy. Four hypotheses were developed. Data were collected via a questionnaire with all 122 HEIs in Taiwan surveyed.The research reveals that the aspects of intellectual property managerial capability, HEI-industry partnerships, and academic entrepreneurial orientation are useful to distinguish the university's innovation performance on patent grants, licensing incomes, and firm incubation. Also, government support on research plays a moderating role in academic innovation. Managerial and policy implications for managing innovation effectively in universities were drawn.     

Assessing French nursing home efficiency: An indirect approach via budget-constrained DEA models

In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques are applied to the French nursing home industry in order to address two policy issues. The first involves nursing home size and returns to scale, while the second deals with the potential effects of a change in nursing home reimbursement from a flat rate to one based on the severity of case-mix. To accomplish this, our analysis expands on the existing nursing home literature to analyze technical and allocative efficiency along with budget-constrained models rather than the more common direct input-based distance function. Technical efficiency is evaluated via an indirect output distance function while allocative output efficiency is computed with a cost indirect revenue function. The findings suggest that system-wide efficiency and equity may result from coming reforms since payments would more accurately reflect resource use.     

Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.