Improving the Quality of CAP Strategic Planning through Enhancing the Role of Agricultural Economics

Extending strategic planning to the full range of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) interventions could improve the impacts of this controversial public policy. Science, particularly agricultural economics, can play a role in improving the quality of planning and implementation of a reformed CAP. The preparation of Member States' Strategic Plans (SP) is rather formalistic, while the plans are not very rigorously designed. A major weakness is related to the CAP's political-economic characteristics and lies in the selection and definition of interventions: financially strong but poorly targeted interventions tend to be pre-fixed, which prevents a stronger focus on the results and quality of planning. The intervention logic functions as a black box, as the links between policy priorities and interventions are merely implied, with no clear, evidence-based links. Therefore, European decision makers should re-examine the concept of CAP SP and especially improve a support system and capacity building for SP designers. Greater involvement of academic research and scientific methods and tools in the preparation, monitoring and evaluation of plans, could significantly improve the quality of planning. This would require increased investment in research and dialogue among representatives of academia, government and the nongovernmental sector.     

Planning or free market economy in LDCs?

On the face of it it looks as if there should be no great difference between less developed countries (LDCs) and the advanced national economies as far as planning is concerned. And yet in reality such differences do exist, even if they do not necessarily stem from the inequalities in the standard of living.     

Erwiderung auf den Aufsatz von Friedrich A. Hayek,Wien: „Gibt es einen Widersinn des Sparens?“

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The Home Improvement,Maintenance, and Repair Industry

Spending on existing housing is important not only for the building materials, building products, and construction markets but also for the macroeconomy. It accounts for about half of total spending on housing capital. The new construction, home improvement, maintenance, and repair markets use overlapping distribution channels, labor, and capital inputs. The various segments of the housing industry touch many other industries and exhibit different patterns over the course of the business cycle. Understanding the unique characteristics of these segments helps business economists and macroeconomists in planning and interpreting changes in the economy as well as estimating better forecasting models.     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Expected Precision of Estimation and Probability of Ruling Out a Hypothesis Based on a Confidence Interval

Interval estimation is an important objective of most experimental and observational studies. Knowing at the design stage of the study how wide the confidence interval (CI) is expected to be and where its limits are expected to fall can be very informative. Asymptotic distribution of the confidence limits can also be used to answer complex questions of power analysis by computing power as probability that a CI will exclude a given parameter value. The CI‐based approach to power and methods of calculating the expected size and location of asymptotic CIs as a measure of expected precision of estimation are reviewed in the present paper. The theory is illustrated with commonly used estimators, including unadjusted risk differences, odds ratios and rate ratios, as well as more complex estimators based on multivariable linear, logistic and Cox regression models. It is noted that in applications with the non‐linear models, some care must be exercised when selecting the appropriate variance expression. In particular, the well‐known ‘short‐cut’ variance formula for the Cox model can be very inaccurate under unequal allocation of subjects to comparison groups. A more accurate expression is derived analytically and validated in simulations. Applications with ‘exact’ CIs are also considered.