Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan

This paper investigates precautionary saving under liquidity constraints in Pakistan using household panel data. In particular, while it estimates Kimball's [Kimball, M.S. Precautionary saving in the small and in the large. Econometrica 1990; 58; 53–73.] prudence parameter based on a framework that is similar to Dynan [Dynan, K.E. How prudent are consumers? Journal of Political Economy 1993; 101; 1104–1113.], this study deviates from the framework by explicitly considering liquidity constraints, as in Zeldes [Zeldes, S.P. Consumption and liquidity constraints: an empirical investigation. Journal of Political Economy 1989; 97; 305–346.]. By doing so, this paper attempts to differentiate the standard precautionary saving caused by uncertainty from that caused by liquidity constraints. Furthermore, endogenous liquidity constraints are used in order to resolve issues of selection biases. We find substantial evidence of the presence of precautionary saving in Pakistan. More specifically, the estimated prudence is significantly higher for liquidity-constrained households as compared with unconstrained ones. The finding suggests that the precautionary saving motives appear stronger when households see that their access to credit markets is limited.     

Stock return, risk, and legal environment around the world

This paper investigates how the legal environment in a country influences performance and risk of stock across countries at different developmental stages and of various rules of jurisdiction. Using data of 4916 stocks from 37 countries, our empirical findings confirm that equities in countries with English common law origin have higher risk premiums than those in civil law countries, particularly for countries of the French/Spanish code. The indicators representing high efficiency in law system, low corruption, strong legal protection of investors' rights, and reliable political environment are associated with low risk and high performance. The various elements of legal procedural formalism, however, have differing effects on volatility and return.     

On monopolistic competition and optimal product diversity: workers' rents also matter

Abstract .  In the Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, entry of firms is socially too small. Other authors have shown that excess entry is also a possibility with other preferences for diversity. We show that workers' rents also contribute to explain excess entry through a general equilibrium mechanism. Larger wages indeed raises the aggregate earnings and firms sales and profits, which entices too many firms to enter. We discuss the possibility of over-provision of varieties by comparing the equilibrium to unconstrained and constrained social optima and to other regulatory frameworks where wages are not controlled.     

Substitution Possibility between Unpriced Pulp and Wastepaper in the U.S. Paper and Paperboard Industry

A greater use of recycled wastepaper would preserve virgin forests as well as reducing the amount of wastepaper going to landfills. These environmental goals depend critically on the elasticity of substitution between pulp and wastepaper in producing paper and paperboard. Since most of the pulp consumed by U.S. paper mills and paperboard mills is transferred internally from vertically integrated pulp mills, the price data on pulp is not available. This paper constructs an econometric model which enables us to estimate the substitution possibility between unpriced pulp and wastepaper in the U.S. paper and paperboard industry. Empirical results show that the elasticity of substitution between unpriced pulp and wastepaper is positive, but not statistically significant.     

Membership has its privileges: the effect of social capital and neighbourhood characteristics on the earnings of microfinance borrowers

In this paper we examine the determinants of self-employment success for microcredit borrowers. Theories of social capital and neighbourhood effects are integrated in an attempt to account for earnings differentials among a unique sample of microfinance borrowers. We posit that social capital – social relations that facilitate individual action – is essential for microentrepreneurial success. Based on a survey and data collected by the authors, it is demonstrated that social capital is a positive determinant of self-employment earnings. The role that neighbourhoods play in fostering social capital and improving microentrepreneurial performance are also highlighted. JEL classification: J23, O17, Z13     

Asset Markets and Endogenous Liquidity

In financial markets characterized by imperfect depth, speculative trading will have transitory effects on the market price as market makers must be compensated for the risk of holding the asset. The number of people providing liquidity to a market will generally be endogenously determined by the quantity of liquidity demanded. This paper looks for evidence of endogenous liquidity provision in several international stock and bond markets. Evidence shows strong support for these speculative dynamics in the stock markets. The evidence for these dynamics is less striking with fixed‐income prices, consistent with the less speculative nature of these markets.     

Decision Utility and Anticipated Discrete Emotions: An Investment Decision Model

Integrating theories and findings from various disciplines, we develop a decision utility model to explain how anticipated discrete emotions mediate investment decisions. We illustrate the model with the anticipated discrete emotions of a hypothetical Ponzi scheme investor and suggest practical measures to manage financial risks, emotionally.     

Cost-effectiveness of telaprevir in combination with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in treatment-experienced chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 patients

Background:

Telaprevir (TVR,T) and boceprevir (BOC,B) are direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) used for the treatment of chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness of TVR combined with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) alfa-2a plus ribavirin (RBV) compared with Peg-IFN alfa-2a and RBV (PR) alone or BOC plus Peg-IFN alfa-2b and RBV in treatment-experienced patients.

Methods:

A Markov cohort model of chronic genotype 1 HCV disease progression reflected the pathway of experienced patients retreated with DAA therapy. The population was stratified by previous response to treatment (i.e., previous relapsers, partial responders, and null responders). Sustained virologic response (SVR) rates were derived from a mixed-treatment comparison that included results from separate Phase III trials of TVR and BOC. Incremental cost per life year (LY) gained and quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained were computed at lifetime, adopting the NHS perspective. Costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Sub-group analyses were carried out by interleukin (IL)-28B genotype.

Results:

Higher costs and improved outcomes were associated with T/PR relative to PR alone for all experienced patients (ICER of £6079). T/PR was cost-effective for each sub-group population with high SVR advantage in relapsers (ICER of £2658 vs £7593 and £20,875 for partial and null responders). T/PR remained cost-effective regardless of IL-28B sub-type. Compared to B/PR, T/PR prolonged QALYs by 0.57 and reduced lifetime costs by £13,960 for relapsers. For partial responders T/PR was less costly but less efficacious than B/PR, equating to an ICER of £128,117 per QALY gained.

Limitations:

No head-to-head trial provides direct evidence of better efficacy of T/PR vs B/PR.

Conclusion:

T/PR is cost-effective compared with PR alone in experienced patients regardless of treatment history and IL-28B genotype. Compared to B/PR, T/PR is always cost-saving but only more effective in relapsers.     

Recycling and extending product-life: an evolutionary modelling

This paper presents a model-based analysis of firms’ economic incentives to extend product life and market recyclable products. We address this problem by developing an evolutionary simulation model to describe the behavior of business firms as interacting with consumers and recyclers. Market structure, business firms’ R&D strategies and consumers’ preferences are found to have an important influence here. The simulation results show that improvement in recycling is necessary but not sufficient to solve the issue of increase in waste. Recycling will need to be backed up with an extension in product-life to face such an unwanted increase. Adopting such a strategy could be positive for firms and for the environment because it could lead to high economic performance, both in terms of profits and market share, and to high environmental performance, both in terms of product recyclability and product lifetime. Our results suggest introducing regulation policies aimed at encouraging firms to invest in developing green products, i.e. those which are easily recyclable and which have a long lifetime, and getting consumers to buy them. It would also seem crucial to lend support to innovation outlay for such firms and to favor their seeking to improve product performance.

An evolutionary model of recycling and product lifetime extension

This paper presents a model-based analysis of the development and diffusion of so-called ‘green’ products, i.e. those which are easily recyclable and which have a long lifetime. We address this problem by developing an evolutionary simulation model to identify the impact of the environmental R&D strategies of business firms on the economy and the environment. The simulation results show that R&D investment both in product recyclability and in product lifetime extension can be positive for the firm. Adopting such a strategy means that the firm can then market green products, which provides it with a competitive advantage on firms investing mainly in product recyclability whatever consumers' preferences. From an environmental point of view, the diffusion of green products will reduce both waste flows in the economy and pressure on virgin resources. However, diversifying R&D investment to develop both product recyclability and lifetime can mean slowing down the flow of recycled materials and may lead to even greater quantities of unrecycled waste. Our results suggest introducing regulation policies aiming at encouraging firms to invest both in product recyclability and lifetime in order to benefit from their complementarities. Furthermore, simulations show that it should be better to direct environmental policies on firms' environmental innovation strategies than on demand attributes because significant changes in these strategies would provide much more radical environmental changes.