Report on the Montreal Conference

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“Honey,Have You Seen Our Hamster?” Consumer Evaluations of Autonomous Domestic Products

Several autonomous products have been launched in the marketplace in the past few years. These autonomous products do not need any human intervention but operate on their own. An example of such an autonomous product is the self-initiating, independent vacuum cleaner that determines when a floor or room needs to be vacuumed, and does the job by itself, returning to the charging station when it needs to recharge its battery. It is unclear, however, to what extent consumers appreciate this autonomy. Autonomous products take over tasks from the user, which leaves the user the opportunity to take part in other activities. However, consumers may also consider these products complex and the use and purchase of such products risky. In addition, people often show a desire for control and may be reluctant to hand over some control to autonomous products. The advantages of autonomous products may thus be partly compensated by several disadvantages.
The present study aims to explain overall consumer appreciation for autonomous products by integrating the above-mentioned factors in a conceptual model. This conceptual framework was tested in an experiment (N=77). The results reveal that consumers perceive highly autonomous products as more risky and complex than less autonomous products. Perceived risk negatively influenced overall consumer appreciation whereas complexity did not affect consumers' appreciation. Relative advantage, however, compensates the negative effect of perceived risk on overall consumer appreciation. Also, contrary to our expectations, we found that people with a high desire for control perceive less risk. We conclude with managerial implications for developers and marketers of autonomous domestic products.     

US—Soviet grain embargoes: Regulating the MNCs

The US government has often attempted to regulate commercial interaction between US grain MNCs (multinational corporations) and the Soviet Union. The US government tried to prohibit the sale of grain to the Soviet Union prior to 1971, to swap US grain for Soviet oil in 1975, and to embargo all grain sales to the Soviets in 1980. Distinctive characteristics of grain MNCs and grain as a commodity, however, have made such efforts at national regulation by the US government a difficult administrative task. These characteristics include the secrecy surrounding grain trading, the fungibility of grain, the use of ‘optional origins’ contracts, and the possession of a considerable number of foreign subsidiaries by the grain MNCs.     

Perturbations of Matrices: A theorem on the perron vector and its applications to input-output models

This is a much revised version of my paper The Effects of Errors in Matrices on the Perron Vector: An Application to Input-Output Models, which was presented at the 1987 European Meeting of the Econometric Society, held in Copenhagen. I would like to thank Gerard Sierksma and Albert E. Steenge for valuable discussions and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets

This paper examines institutional price pressure in equity markets by studying mutual fund transactions caused by capital flows from 1980 to 2004. Funds experiencing large outflows tend to decrease existing positions, which creates price pressure in the securities held in common by distressed funds. Similarly, the tendency among funds experiencing large inflows to expand existing positions creates positive price pressure in overlapping holdings. Investors who trade against constrained mutual funds earn significant returns for providing liquidity. In addition, future flow-driven transactions are predictable, creating an incentive to front-run the anticipated forced trades by funds experiencing extreme capital flows.     

Selecting copulas for risk management

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper, we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend standard goodness-of-fit tests to copulas. Contrary to existing, indirect tests, these tests can be applied to any copula of any dimension and are based on a direct comparison of a given copula with observed data. For a portfolio consisting of stocks, bonds and real estate, these tests provide clear evidence in favor of the Student’s t copula, and reject both the correlation-based Gaussian copula and the extreme value-based Gumbel copula. In comparison with the Student’s t copula, we find that the Gaussian copula underestimates the probability of joint extreme downward movements, while the Gumbel copula overestimates this risk. Similarly we establish that the Gaussian copula is too optimistic on diversification benefits, while the Gumbel copula is too pessimistic. Moreover, these differences are significant.     

Tax Reform and the Demand for Debt

This article examines the impact on household borrowing from a tax reform that implied a change from progressive to constant marginal tax rates on interest deductions. We use three alternative empirical methods to address the problem of endogenous explanatory variables, which arises when the marginal tax rate itself is a function of the amount of debt: The first approach uses instrumental variables to examine the significance of the marginal tax rate directly and produces mixed results. In the second approach we use tobit regressions based on repeated cross-sectional data to examine the correspondence between debt and income and find that the households' amount of debt were strongly and positively related to income before the tax reform and significantly more income-dependent under progressive tax rates than under the constant tax rate. Finally, using panel data covering the last year prior to the reform and the first year after, we find that the change in a household's marginal tax rate had a significant impact on the change in its amount of debt.     

Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD

Demand, Comparative Advantage and Economic Geography in International Trade: Evidence from the OECD. — This paper examines the influence of demand on the pattern of net trade for 17 OECD countries. It is found that demand differences are important as a cause of international trade. In fact, for the majority of countries, demand factors explain more of the net trade pattern than do factor proportions. The evidence offers some support for the modern geography and trade theories: high domestic demand in an industry leads to a net export for the majority of cases. The evidence is, however, not clear-cut. Moreover, a demand bias in favour of domestic varieties leads to a net export. Here, the evidence is clear-cut.     

Measuring New Product Success: The Difference that Time Perspective Makes

Management is often criticized for overemphasizing short-term profits at the expense of long-term growth. On the other hand, although numerous studies have explored the factors underlying new product success and failure, such studies rarely distinguish between short- and long-term success. In fact, little research has been conducted to explore the relationship between a company's time perspective and its choice of criteria for measuring new product success. For that matter, little consensus exists as to just what we mean by the term success. Expanding on work done by a PDMA task force on measurement of new product success and failure, Erik Jan Hultink and Henry S.J. Robben identify 16 core measures of new product success. In a survey of large Dutch companies, they explore managers' perceptions of new product success, hypothesizing that the importance attached to each of the 16 core measures depends on the company's time perspective. For example, they propose that criteria such as development cost and speed-to-market are more important in the short term, and return-on-investiment (ROI) is more important in the long term. The study also examines the type of market served, the innovation strategy, and the perceived innovativeness of the company's products. It is hypothesized that these factors will influence the importance the company attaches to the core measures of new product success. For example, it is expected that speed-to-market is probably more important for technological innovators than for fast imitators or cost minimizers. The findings support the hypothesis that the firm's time perspective influences the perceived importance of the core measures of success. For the short term, the respondents emphasize product-level measures such as speed-to-market and whether the product was launched on time. In the long term, the focus is on customer acceptance and financial performance, including attaining goals for profitability, margins, and ROI. Four factors are perceived as being equally important for short-term and long-term success: customer satisfaction, customer acceptance, meeting quality guidelines, and product performance level. Customer satisfaction was found to be the most important measure, regardless of a company's time perspective. Contrary to expectations, the perceived importance of the 16 core measures does not differ on the basis of the type of market, the innovation strategy, or the product's perceived innovativeness. In addition, the firm's functional orientation—technology push or market pull—does not affect the importance attached to the core measures of new product success.