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141.
Erik Cohen 《Annals of Tourism Research》1983,10(4):580-582
142.
Erik Koenen 《Publizistik》2007,52(3):451
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The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences.Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence. 相似文献
147.
Erik Millstone 《Food Policy》1985,10(3):237-252
This paper reviews the use, regulation and testing of food additives in the UK. Comparisons are drawn with other industrialized countries. In particular, the reasons (both explicit and implicit) for the use of additives are examined and the institutional mechanisms for their control are described. Since regulatory policy is dependent on toxological expertise, the contribution and adequacy of toxological science is considered. Present regulations are viewed to have been too heavily influenced by the food industry at the expense of the protection of the consumer, and several possible avenues for reform of both toxological science and regulatory policy are explored. 相似文献
148.
This paper deals with second-best one-route congestion pricing in case of an untolled alternative. Using a two-link network simulation model, the effects of various demand and cost parameters on the relative efficiency of one-route tolling are analyzed. It is investigated whether the existence of costs of congestion charging may be a reason for one-route tolling to be more “overall efficient” than two-route tolling. Finally, the efficiency of revenue-maximizing one-route and two-route tolling is discussed. 相似文献
149.
Generalized extreme value (GEV) random utility choice models have been suggested as a development of the multinomial logit models that allows the random components of various alternatives to be statistically dependent. This paper establishes the existence of and provides necessary and sufficient uniqueness conditions for the solutions to a set of equations that may be interpreted as an equilibrium of an economy, the demand side of which is described by a multiple-segment GEV random choice model. The same equations may alternatively be interpreted in a maximum likelihood estimation context. The method employed is based on optimization theory and may provide a useful computational approach. The uniqueness results suggest a way to introduce segregation/integration effects into logit type choice models. Generalization to non-GEV models are touched upon. 相似文献
150.
Jakob de Haan Erik Leertouwer Erik Meijer Tom Wansbeek 《Scottish journal of political economy》2003,50(3):326-340
We argue that central bank independence (CBI) is a latent variable of which the various existing quantifications are imperfect indicators. We show how factor analysis techniques can be employed to assess the quality of the various indicators, and how an optimal weighting of the indicators can be obtained that gives the best approximation of CBI. We also show how these results can be utilized in models in which CBI is an explanatory variable. In contrast to the well‐known study of Campillo and Miron (1997) , we find that our CBI indicator is significantly related to inflation, also when various control variables are included. 相似文献