中国经济发展面临的结构性挑战及对策

我想更多地介绍一下中国面临的结构性挑战以及如何应对这些挑战,2005年我给大家分析过一些类似的挑战,但还有很多问题都没有解答,一年之后许多解决方案已经变得更加新奇了.     

The Impact of Exchange Rate Risk on Intercountry Trade and Production

Analysing various arrangements of intercountry trade, this paper investigates the impact of exchange rate risk on production and expected trade. It addresses the question how a mean-preserving spread of the exchange rate distribution effects strategic aspects of different trading arrangements. It is shown that in an uncertain environment the efficiency loss induced by double marginalization can in general not be overcome by negotiation.     

Standardised capital stock estimates in Latin America: a 1950-94 update

Capital stock estimates are used extensively in many areas ofeconomic research, in spite of both theoretical and practicaldifficulties with respect to their use, estimation and meaning.The lack of comparable capital stock estimates in Latin Americahas hindered analysis of economic development in the regionand comparisons with other developed and developing countries.Standardised gross and net fixed capital stock estimates forthe 1950-94 period are presented for seven Latin American countries:Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Venezuela.The methodology employed is the 'perpetual inventory method'which estimates capital stocks as a weighted sum of past investmentflows. Several methodological issues are discussed, especiallydepreciation and service life estimation. Capital stocks havebeen disaggregated in machinery and equipment, non-residentialand residential structures with services lives of 15, 40 and50 years respectively.     

A BOUNDED INDEX TEST TO MAKE ROBUST HETEROGENEOUS WELFARE COMPARISONS

Fleurbaey et al. (2003) develop a bounded dominance test to make robust welfare comparisons, which is intermediate between Ebert's (1999) cardinal dominance criterion—generalized Lorenz dominance applied to household incomes, divided and weighted by an equivalence scale—and Bourguignon's (1989) ordinal dominance criterion. In this paper, we develop a more complete, but less robust bounded index test, which is intermediate between Ebert's (1997) cardinal index test—an index applied to household incomes, divided and weighted by the equivalence scale—and a (new) sequential index test—an index applied to household incomes of the most needy only, the most and second most needy only, and so on. We illustrate the power of our test to detect welfare changes in Russia using data of the RLMS-surveys.     

Privatization, Labor and Social Safety Nets

Privatization promotes economic efficiency and growth, thereby reinforcing macroeconomic adjustment. In the short run, however, it can lead to job losses and wage cuts for workers. This paper discusses these adverse impacts of privatization in terms of various methods of privatization and surveys the existing empirical evidence. It finds that public sales and auctions can have stronger negative effects on workers but maximize the government's revenue. Policymakers' options for mitigating the social impact of privatization are surveyed.     

Determinants of Airport Choice in a Multi-Airport Region

The Civil Aeronautics Board was dismantled on the premise that competition and the threat of entry would restrain airline prices. If consumers do not search for low fares, then the threat of entry will have little impact. The entry of a low fare carrier will reallocate fliers within but not between airports. Telephone survey data were used to estimate probit models for the use of Baltimore–Washington International, Newark International, JFK International, and Philadelphia International Airports to evaluate the effect of low fares on consumer behavior. In airport usage, age and gender do not matter. Although survey participants reported that airfare is an important consideration, actual searching for a low fare was unimportant. The availability of non-stop flights, wait at check-in, income, and distance from home were important.     

The determinants of absenteeism: evidence from Australian blue–collar employees

For much of the last decade research studies on absenteeism have con-centrated on samples of white-collar employees in service-sector organizations. Unionized factory workers have largely been ignored. As a consequence, certain work-setting variables and policy matters which would appear to be germane to an understanding of absenteeism in a manufacturing environment have tended to be neglected.

The purpose of this study is to develop and test a causal model of absenteeism using a sample of unionized, production workers in the automotive industry. The LISREL results indicated there were a number of different factors that had a significant effect on the incidence of absenteeism. These causal factors included job motivation, the routinization of work and supervisory support, as well as absence culture and the employees' external responsibilities. In addition, policy issues relating to previous disciplinary warnings and the accumulation of sick pay were identified as significant determinants of absence behaviour.     

Does market participation promote generalized trust? Experimental evidence from Southern Africa

Does market participation promote generalized morality and trust, as postulated by some recent theories? We use experimental data from Zimbabwe and Mozambique to probe into one specific component of this question, and find evidence to the contrary. The short-term effect of market integration appears to be to lower generalized trust. However, this finding is not robust across all countries.     

Transparent Costing: Has the emperor got clothes?

Transparent Costing (TC) is a framework for determining the full indirect costs and thereby the full costs (FC) of Australian Competitive Grant (ACG) research projects; with the objective of ensuring the full funding of these projects by the government, so that they could be sustained in the long-run, and preventing their cross-subsidisation from other revenue sources. If a university wishes to be fully funded for its AGC research projects, it is mandatory to undertake a TC exercise and allocate the indirect costs of research activities. It was found in this study that whilst the objectives of FC appear worthwhile, FC may not prevent the practice of cross subsidisation. Also whilst it was found that Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) is preferable to ABC in the TC modelling of ‘research only’ departments and institutes; both approaches do not provide accurate information in ‘teaching and research’ departments. In these departments more accurate estimations could be obtained from studying the workload allocation methods and conducting direct interviews of the staff undertaking research on ACG and other externally funded grants.