An analysis of some short-term health effects of air pollution in the Washington,D.C. metropolitan area

This study assesses some of the short-term health effects of air pollution in Washington, D.C. Specifically, regression models are formulated to explain health-care visits to a group practice medical care plan. Primary interest is focused on the effects of mobile-source air pollutants, particularly photo-chemical oxidants. Meteorological conditions, as well as other variables thought to influence the consumption of medical services, are included in the models as explanatory variables. The study found only a small effect of air pollution levels on the health-care visits to the group practice.     

Asset returns and inflation

We estimate the extent to which various assets were hedges against the expected and unexpected components of the inflation rate during the 1953–1971 period. We find that U.S. government bonds and bills were a complete hedge against expected inflation, and private residential real estate was a complete hedge against both expected and unexpected inflation. Labor income showed little short-term relationship with either expected or unexpected inflation. The most anomalous result is that common stock returns were negatively related to the expected component of the inflation rate, and probably also to the unexpected component.     

中国房地产业重见曙光

2007年4季度以来，由于政府的严厉措施、尤其是货币供应的收紧，大多数城市的住房成交量有所下降。市场对于2008年过度紧缩的忧虑导致了近几个月房地产股的大跌。然而，近期的迹象表明，住房部门受到的约束正在放松。这种情况下，上海市场开始回暖，出现了量价齐升的局面。     

The information in the term structure

This paper presents a regression approach to measuring the information in forward interest rates about time varying premiums and future spot interest rates. Like earlier work, the regressions identify variation in the expected premiums on longer-maturity Treasury bills. The more novel evidence concerns the forecasts of future spot rates in forward rates. The regressions provide evidence that the one-month forward rate has power to predict the spot rate one month ahead. During periods preceding 1974, forward rates have reliable forecast power for one-month spot rates up to five months in the future.     

A Recommended formula for scoring probabilistic multiple-choice tests

This paper addresses the issue of how best to score test responses obtained when using Probabilistically Answered Examinations (PAE). After discussing the PAE methodology, the paper identifies and explores the attributes of a simple, intuitively appealing scoring rule. The results of this analysis suggest that, in many classroom situations, this simple scoring rule produces indices of test effectiveness that are at least as good as those produced by more complicated and costly scoring rules. These tentative findings are drawn upon in support of the use of this simple scoring rule with PAE.     

Implementing: Alternatives,costs, and benefits

This essay provides a conceptual framework for thinking about the problem of implementing (i.e. getting things done) as part of the larger process of managing. We shall isolate some alternative approaches to that implementing problem and briefly examine the underlying beliefs, the accompanying technologies, and the attendant costs/benefits of those alternatives. We shall then make a few suggestions about appropriate alternatives for the decade ahead.     

IS THE REAL INTEREST RATE REALLY UNSTABLE?

If nominal interest rates have a unit root, but inflation and inflation forecast errors do not, ex-ante real interest rates are argued to have a unit root and are therefore nonstationary. I show that empirical tests for nonstationarity of real interest rates using such a deductive method can be misleading when the stationary inflation forecast errors are large relative to the variation of nominal interest rates.