DEVELOPING SOCIAL IDENTITY AND SOCIAL CAPITAL FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Competition involves not firm against firm but rather supply chain against supply chain, but few studies explain theoretically the subsistence of a supply chain as a social entity or the operating mechanisms through which firms socialize to obtain better business performance. On the bases of social identity theory and social capital theory, the authors suggest that the salience of supply chain identity accumulates social capital in a supply chain, which then facilitates supply chain management and improves business performance.     

On the calibration of continuous subjective probability distributions

A simple procedure is presented for calibrating probability assessors who repetitively give continuous distributions rather than point probability estimates. The calibration function so derived can be used to display certain systematic bias features as well as for correcting future assessments. The need to perform calibration can often arise in single multistage inferential tasks as well as the repetitive estimation contexts and it is often necessary in both cases in order to avoid the covert dependencies which can arise between essentially independent variables because of systematic assessment bias on the part of the expert.     

INTERORGANIZATIONAL TIME‐BASED POSTPONEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

This paper presents the results of empirical research on the use of time‐based postponement in a supply chain context using data collected from two manufacturers, a distributor, and a retailer. The analysis shows that implementing postponement at the firm level can result in the supply chain carrying more inventory. In order to achieve its full potential, postponement needs to be implemented across organizations in the supply chain.     

Development and Use of Biopesticides: Implications of Government Policy and Consumers’ Preferences

Biopesticides developed and used in the future will emerge against the backdrop of the environmental effects associated with the use of conventional pesticides and government policies designed to control these effects. In the final analysis, farmers’ choices on pesticides will be influenced by the prevailing costs and benefits of conventional pesticides and their alternatives including biopesticides. The outlook for pesticide use is complicated, though some directions can be perceived. There are a number of factors that will serve potentially to impact pesticide use which in turn will affect the development of biopesticides. These include pesticide regulation, the FAIR Act, the crops planted, the management of ecologically based systems, and consumer demand for “green” products.     

The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: A Continuous Assessment of the Technology Revolution

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances—the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution.     

Using the Survey of Consumer Finances: Some Methodological Considerations and Issues

We identify and present original analyses of four methodological issues related to using Survey of Consumer Finances data sets and illustrate these issues with recent articles published in this journal. The issues are recognizing that the respondent is not necessarily the household head, reporting race and ethnicity in conformity with Survey of Consumer Finances and federal standards, using the repeated‐imputation inference method to combine the five implicates in each survey year’s data set, and discussing the use of weighted or unweighted data in multivariate analysis. We found a considerable variation in how authors dealt with these issues, which could hinder replication or comparison of research results. Authors and reviewers should consider methodological issues related to the Survey of Consumer Finances more carefully.     

Valuing ARM Rate Caps: Implications of 1970–84 Interest Rate Behavior

This paper computes how coupon rates on hypothetical default-free 1- 3- and 5-year adjustable rate mortgages with various caps and teaser rates issued during the 1970–76 period would have had to be set in order for the ARMs to have earned the market rate of return over a 7 1/2-year holding period. The 1970–84 period includes both a relatively stable interest rate experience (1970–77) and a "worse case" sharply rising rate environment (1977–84). Thus the calculations include the entire gamut of margins that lenders might need to charge for various caps in order to earn the market rate of return. What margins lenders should be charging at any point in time depends on the relative likelihood of future interest rate paths, e.g., the 1970–77 pattern versus the 1977–84 pattern. More formally, the appropriate charge depends on the slope of the yield curve and the perceived volatility of interest rates.