ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

Why has Europe Become Environmentally Cleaner? Decomposing the Roles of Fiscal,Trade and Environmental Policies

This paper examines the role of fiscal policy, trade and energy taxes on environmental quality in Europe using disaggregated data at the monitoring station level for the 12 richest European countries spanning the period from 1995 to 2008. Our estimations show that fiscal policies and energy taxes are important determinants of pollution through various mechanisms. We find that increasing the share of fiscal spending in GDP and shifting the emphasis towards spending in public goods and against non-social subsidies significantly lower the concentrations of sulfur dioxide and ozone but not nitrogen dioxide. At the same time, energy taxes reduce nitrogen dioxide concentrations but have no effect on ozone and sulfur dioxide. Finally trade openness has a direct effect on sulfur dioxide but no effect on nitrogen dioxide or ozone. Our estimates account for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity.     

Do People Accurately Anticipate Sanctions?

We provide lab data from four different games that allow us to study whether people have accurate expectations regarding monetary sanctions (punishment/reward) and nonmonetary sanctions (disapproval/approval). Although the strength of the sanction is always predicted with some error (particularly in the case of monetary sanctions), we observe that (i) most subjects anticipate correctly the sign of the average sanction, (ii) expectations covary with sanctions, (iii) the average expectation is very often not significantly different than the average actual sanction, and (iv) the errors exhibit no systematic bias, except in those situations where rewards are frequent. In this line, we find some evidence that punishment is better anticipated than rewards.     

Coping with regional inequality in Sweden: structural change,migrations, and policy, 1860–2000

In many countries, regional income inequality has followed an inverted U‐shaped curve, growing during industrialization and market integration and declining thereafter. By contrast, Sweden's regional inequality dropped from 1860 to 1980 and did not exhibit this U‐shaped pattern. Accordingly, today's regional income inequality in Sweden is lower than in other European countries. We note that the prime mover behind the long‐run reduction in regional income differentials was structural change, whereas neoclassical and technological forces played a relatively less important role. However, this process of regional income convergence can be divided into three major periods. During the first period (1860–1940), the unrestricted action of market forces, particularly the expansion of markets and high rates of internal and international migration, led to the compression of regional income differentials. During the next period (1940–80), regional convergence was even more intense. In this period, institutional arrangements favoured the reduction of productivity differentials across industries and successive governments aided the reallocation of the workforce from declining to thriving regions and economic sectors. During the last period (1980–2000), when regional incomes diverged, internal migration and structural change slowed. Furthermore, the development of knowledge‐intensive service industries favoured economic growth in the main metropolitan areas.     

Localisation of Industry in Chile, 1895–1967: Mining Cycles and State Policy

Mining cycles have had an enormous impact in the evolution of the localisation of economic activity, in particular of industry, in Chile. The nitrate cycle was characterised by a labour‐intensive extraction process and activity which was geographically very concentrated. The copper cycle was geographically more dispersed and its activity more capital‐intensive. We stress the role played by the State in the latter de‐concentration due to the impact of regional development policies and assess the importance of factor endowments and agglomeration economies, in the localisation of the manufacture.     

Exploring The Gender Effect On Europeans’ Retirement Savings

This paper investigates whether European women have the same probability of saving for retirement as European men and if driving factors for this saving behavior differ by gender. The evidence is based on a sample of 6,036 individuals from eight European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). The results show that European women are less likely to save for retirement than men, although the determinants of this decision are similar for both genders. Moreover, the results suggest that country-level institutional factors play a more important role on the individual's retirement attitudes than gender differences.     

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY RESTRICTIONS ON WATER WITHDRAWALS FROM SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND SOURCES

The appropriation of water for economic activities is limited by regional surface and underground endowments, and symptoms of environmentally unsustainable withdrawals are already visible in many regions of the world. In this paper we investigate the economic implications of water policy imposing source- and region-specific restrictions on water withdrawals taking the Mexican economy as a case study. We use an inter-regional input–output model of Mexico's hydro-economic regions to allocate production subject to the availability of water and other factors of production. Water sustainability requires a reduction of 7.5?km³/yr of groundwater withdrawals, which is compensated by an increase of 3.4?km³/yr of surface water, an expansion onto an additional 1.4 million hectares of rainfed land, and modifications in subnational patterns of food trade. This framework for evaluating scenarios describing sustainability-oriented water policies is readily applicable to other regions.     

Restrictions on Foreign Investments and the Relocation of Firms

We analyse why the Chinese government sets restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI). We focus our analysis on the percentage of shares in relocated firms that the government allows to be foreign‐owned. The government's decision on this percentage depends on the entry cost, the number of firms that relocate and the weight of the consumer surplus in the objective function of the government. We show that by its choice of this percentage, the Chinese government may restrict or encourage FDI to its country. We also find that if the government may subsidise the fixed entry cost, it provides a subsidy only when the producer surplus has a greater weight than the consumer surplus in weighted welfare. In that case, the subsidy encourages relocation by both firms and permits the government to allow a lower percentage of shares to be foreign‐owned in relocated firms.