Information Sharing in Contests

We study the incentives to share private information ahead of contests, such as markets with promotional competition, procurement contests, or research and development (R&D). We consider the cases where firms have (i) independent values and (ii) common values of winning the contest. In both cases, when decisions to share information are made independently, sharing information is strictly dominated. With independent values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information can arise in equilibrium. Expected effort is lower with than without information sharing. With common values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information never arises in equilibrium. Expected effort is higher with than without information sharing.     

Correcting for the Missing Rich: An Application to Wealth Survey Data

It is a well‐known criticism that if the distribution of wealth is highly concentrated, survey data are hardly reliable when it comes to analyzing the richest parts of society. This paper addresses this criticism by providing a general rationale of the underlying methodological problem as well as by proposing a specific methodological approach tailored to correcting the arising bias. We illustrate the latter approach by using Austrian data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Specifically, we identify suitable parameter combinations by using a series of maximum‐likelihood estimates and appropriate goodness‐of‐fit tests to avoid arbitrariness with respect to the fitting of the Pareto distribution. Our results suggest that the alleged non‐observation bias is considerable, accounting for about one quarter of total net wealth in the case of Austria. The method developed in this paper can easily be applied to other countries where survey data on wealth are available.     

NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff

Meaningful estimates of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi‐variate equations system of inflation and unemplyoment. We use a data‐driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly.     

Parental background and other-regarding preferences in children

Other-regarding preferences are important for establishing and maintaining cooperative outcomes. In this paper, we study how the formation of other-regarding preferences during childhood is related to parental background. Our subjects, aged 4–12 years, are classified into other-regarding types based on simple binary-choice dictator games. The main finding is that the children of parents with low education are less altruistic, more selfish, and more likely to be weakly spiteful. This link is robust to controlling for a rich set of children’s characteristics and class fixed effects. It also stands out against the overall development of preferences, as we find children to become more altruistic, less selfish, and less likely to be weakly spiteful with increasing age. The results, supported by a complementary analysis of World Values Survey data, suggest an important role of socialization in the formation of other-regarding preferences.     

Testing Alternative Models Of New Product Diffusion

This paper reports upon the testing of the comparative performance of eight epidemic based diffusion models on data describing the diffusion of camcorders and CD players in the UK and cars in West Germany. Standard epidemic models of new product diffusion are modified to allow for the influence of economic factors and compared to a recent model proposed by Karshenas and Stoneman. The performance of the Karshenas and Stoneman model is good, but so is that of an alternative model in the Marketing literature proposed by Easingwood, Mahajan and Muller.     

Start-ups, long- and short-term survivors, and their contribution to employment growth

This study documents that the survival of start-ups is central in explaining the relationship between entry and regional employment growth. Distinguishing between start-ups according to the period of their survival shows that the positive effect of new business formation on employment growth is mainly driven by those new businesses that are strong enough to remain in the market for a certain period of time. This result is especially pronounced for the relationship between the surviving start-ups and employment growth in incumbent businesses indicating that there are significantly positive indirect effects of new business formation on regional development. We draw conclusions for policy and make suggestions for further research.     

Marcos M. López de Prado: Machine learning for asset managers

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

A Test of Strategic Trade Policy in the Semiconductor Industry: The Impact of Japanese Policy on U.S. Firms

This paper analyzes a multinational corporation that may use tax evasion and profit shifting as a means to minimize tax liabilities. Our main finding is that profit shifting may occur even when tax rates are the same across countries. This will be the case whenever there is a tax differential in effective tax rates resulting from differences in tax enforcement. In this context, profit shifting occurs to enable tax evasion in a country where tax enforcement is less harsh. Moreover, for a given differential in tax rates, differences in tax enforcement may either accentuate or dampen profit shifting. Importantly, the predictions regarding the direction of profit shifting that would result in our set-up may contrast sharply with those of the preceding literature.     

Estimating aggregate autoregressive processes when only macro data are available

The aggregation of individual random AR(1) models generally leads to an AR(∞$\infty$) process. We provide two consistent estimators of aggregate dynamics based on either a parametric regression or a minimum distance approach for use when only macro data are available. Notably, both estimators allow us to recover some moments of the cross-sectional distribution of the autoregressive parameter. Both estimators perform very well in our Monte-Carlo experiment, even with finite samples.     

Deploying strategic resources: comparing members of farmer cooperatives to non-members in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Primary producers in global value chains, like any other firm, aim for entrepreneurial success through deploying strategic resources, collective action, strategic intent, and a supportive institutional environment. In the current article, we analyze the extent to which members of farmer cooperatives in Ethiopia succeed in deploying strategic resources. We find that non-members utilize resources more efficiently and that the potential for collective action is not realized. The potential for collective action remains unrealized due to the institutional environment. We suggest pathways for further research.