Optimal asset taxes in financial markets with aggregate uncertainty

This paper studies Pareto-optimal risk-sharing arrangements in a private information economy with aggregate uncertainty and ex ante heterogeneous agents. I show how to implement Pareto optima as equilibria when agents can trade claims to consumption contingent on aggregate shocks in financial markets. The first result is that if aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks are independent, the implementation of optimal allocations does not require any interventions in financial markets. This result can be extended to dynamic settings in the sense that, in this case, only savings need to be distorted, but not trades in financial markets. Second, I characterize optimal trading distortions in financial markets when aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks are not independent. In this case, optimal asset taxes must be higher for those securities that pay out in aggregate states in which consumption is more volatile. For instance, this can provide an efficiency justification for the frequently observed differential tax treatment of different asset classes, such as debt and equity claims.     

Information Sharing in Contests

We study the incentives to share private information ahead of contests, such as markets with promotional competition, procurement contests, or research and development (R&D). We consider the cases where firms have (i) independent values and (ii) common values of winning the contest. In both cases, when decisions to share information are made independently, sharing information is strictly dominated. With independent values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information can arise in equilibrium. Expected effort is lower with than without information sharing. With common values, an industry‐wide agreement to share information never arises in equilibrium. Expected effort is higher with than without information sharing.     

Correcting for the Missing Rich: An Application to Wealth Survey Data

It is a well‐known criticism that if the distribution of wealth is highly concentrated, survey data are hardly reliable when it comes to analyzing the richest parts of society. This paper addresses this criticism by providing a general rationale of the underlying methodological problem as well as by proposing a specific methodological approach tailored to correcting the arising bias. We illustrate the latter approach by using Austrian data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Specifically, we identify suitable parameter combinations by using a series of maximum‐likelihood estimates and appropriate goodness‐of‐fit tests to avoid arbitrariness with respect to the fitting of the Pareto distribution. Our results suggest that the alleged non‐observation bias is considerable, accounting for about one quarter of total net wealth in the case of Austria. The method developed in this paper can easily be applied to other countries where survey data on wealth are available.     

A SURVEY ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF TAX REFORMS FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This study reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex‐post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex ante. Based on these criteria, we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex‐post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the short‐run and long‐run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty, but there is disagreement with respect to the magnitude. Our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade‐offs between short‐run stabilization and long‐run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed. (JEL E62, H20, O20)     

NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff

Meaningful estimates of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi‐variate equations system of inflation and unemplyoment. We use a data‐driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly.     

Testing Alternative Models Of New Product Diffusion

This paper reports upon the testing of the comparative performance of eight epidemic based diffusion models on data describing the diffusion of camcorders and CD players in the UK and cars in West Germany. Standard epidemic models of new product diffusion are modified to allow for the influence of economic factors and compared to a recent model proposed by Karshenas and Stoneman. The performance of the Karshenas and Stoneman model is good, but so is that of an alternative model in the Marketing literature proposed by Easingwood, Mahajan and Muller.     

Start-ups, long- and short-term survivors, and their contribution to employment growth

This study documents that the survival of start-ups is central in explaining the relationship between entry and regional employment growth. Distinguishing between start-ups according to the period of their survival shows that the positive effect of new business formation on employment growth is mainly driven by those new businesses that are strong enough to remain in the market for a certain period of time. This result is especially pronounced for the relationship between the surviving start-ups and employment growth in incumbent businesses indicating that there are significantly positive indirect effects of new business formation on regional development. We draw conclusions for policy and make suggestions for further research.     

To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area

In this article, convergence of unit labor cost (ULC) inflation within the Euro area is tested by means of panel unit root tests. To account for the small cross-sectional dimension, cross-sectional dependence of model innovations and time varying volatility, wild bootstrap critical values are employed for inference. Convergence is tested separately for pre- and post-Euro introduction subperiods. Moreover, we identify particular economies that are characterized by diverging ULC inflation after the introduction of the Euro. While the German economy is characterized by ULC inflation which is persistently below the sample average, Spain and Italy have suffered sustained losses of price competitiveness against their trading partners within the Euro area. ULC inflation in Finland, France, and Ireland can be classified as neutral with respect to relative competitive positions.     

Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions to assess innovation policy

In recent years a growing literature on socio-technical transitions towards sustainability has emerged. Scholars have explored ways through which configurations of technologies, infrastructures, social practices, institutions and markets can change to fulfil their functions in a more sustainable way. A multi-level perspective (MLP) has been developed to describe and analyse these complex, long-term processes. It has also been used to help design policy for example in the Netherlands. In this paper the MLP is used in a novel way: as a heuristic to ex ante assess policies to stimulate socio-technical transitions. Instead of using it for policy development, the MLP is used here for an assessment of policy. The analysis focuses on a particular policy initiative intended to stimulate the transition to a low carbon economy in the UK: the Carbon Trust. This paper makes two contributions to the socio-technical transitions literature: Conceptually, the paper demonstrates the usefulness of the socio-technical multi-level perspective to analyse policies and assess their likely impact ex ante against the background of theorising about the patterns of large scale, socio-technical change. Empirically, the paper finds that the activities of the Carbon Trust consist of a variety of well targeted ways to stimulate the development of socio-technical niches as well as to change regime practices directly. Nevertheless, the paper argues that this model also faces difficulties in promoting a transition towards a low carbon economy.