Budget deficits,money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence

The paper investigates the long-run relationships between budget deficits, inflation and monetary growth in Turkey considering two alternative trivariate systems corresponding to the narrowest and the broadest monetary aggregates. While the joint endogeneity of money and inflation rejects the validity of the monetarist view, lack of a direct relationship between inflation and budget deficits makes the pure fiscal theory explanations illegitimate for the Turkish case. Consistent with the policy regime of financing domestic debt through the commercial banking system, budget deficits lead to a growth not of currency seigniorage but of broad money in Turkey. This mode of deficit financing, leading to the creation of near money and restricting the scope for an effective monetary policy, may not be sustainable, as the government securities/broad money ratio cannot grow without limit.     

The relational benefits of personalized communications in an online environment

This research investigates how personalized communications enhance customer‐company relationships, which ultimately produce favourable marketing outcomes. Two factors were manipulated in an online experiment: the perceived effort made by customers to obtain a personalized newsletter (high vs. low) and the level of relevance of the message (high vs. low). The results indicate that perceived effort positively affects calculative commitment (even more so for highly involved customers), while the level of relevance of the message increases affective commitment. In addition, the interaction between perceived effort and message relevance has significant effects on calculative and affective commitment. Finally, affective commitment partially mediates the relationships between relevance and both loyalty and word‐of‐mouth intentions. Managerial implications regarding the best usage of personalized communications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eco-control: The influence of management control systems on environmental and economic performance

Eco-control is the application of financial and strategic control methods to environmental management. In this study, we investigate to what extent eco-control influences environmental and economic performance. Using survey-data from a sample of Canadian manufacturing firms, the results suggest that eco-control has no direct effect on economic performance. A mediating effect of environmental performance on the link between eco-control and economic performance is observed in different contexts. More specifically, eco-control indirectly influences economic performance in the context of (i) higher environmental exposure, (ii) higher public visibility, (iii) higher environmental concern, and (iv) larger size. This study contributes to the management accounting literature by providing insight into the roles and contributions of management accounting in the context of sustainable development.     

An Out-of-Sample Analysis of Investment Guarantees for Equity-Linked Products

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the risk underlying investment guarantees using 78 different econometric models: GARCH, regime-switching, mixtures, and combinations of these approaches. This extensive set of models is compared with returns observed during the financial crisis in an out-of-sample analysis, bringing a new perspective to the study of equity-linked insurance. We find that despite the very good fit of recent models, too few of them are capable of consistently generating low returns over long periods, which were in fact observed empirically during the financial crisis. Moreover, tail risk measures vary significantly across models, and this emphasizes the importance of model risk. Most insurance companies are now focusing on dynamically hedging their investment guarantees, and so we also investigate the robustness of the Black-Scholes delta hedging strategy. We find that hedging errors can be very large among the top fitting models, implying that model risk must be taken into consideration when hedging investment guarantees.     

Selecting container port via a fuzzy ANP-based approach: A case study in the Marmara Region,Turkey

In this case study, a real world problem of a production firm in the Marmara Region, Turkey was considered. In the current situation, the firm works with different third-party logistics firms and uses different ports each time. However, they have some quality problems and decided to work with a logistics firm by using the most convenient port alternative. A number of conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria exist for evaluating alternative ports. Qualitative criteria are often accompanied by ambiguities and vagueness. To cope with this problem, the fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is used in this study. First, we defined the region specific criteria consisting of the twenty sub-criteria under the six main criteria clusters that influence the selection of container port. Then seven alternative container ports located in the Marmara Sea were determined. The results showed that the most convenient district for the container port is Istanbul District, which is one of the biggest economical centers in Eastern Europe.     

A good deal online: The Impacts of acquisition and transaction value on E-satisfaction and E-loyalty

Relying on Thaler's exchange theory, this research examines the unique effects of perceived transaction and acquisition values on consumer e-satisfaction and e-loyalty in an e-commerce setting, along with the moderating role of product/ service category. Overall, consumers' perceptions of transaction value lead to their e-dissatisfaction. Hence, obtaining a good deal does not have the same meaning and influence depending on the type of buying trip (exploratory or goal-directed). These results confirm Thaler's exchange theory's usefulness to analyzing the impact of perceived value on e-satisfaction and e-loyalty. Additionally, in a managerial perspective, this research underlines the importance of adapting promotional strategies to online contexts, since online purchase experience improves when there is an alignment between the customer's goals and the e-tailer’s online offering.     

Non-Gaussian diversification: When size matters

Classical portfolio theory informs investors that they should have a large number of assets in their portfolios in order to diversify risk. We show that the non-Gaussian features of stock return distribution may not allow for this risk protection in times of crisis. Moreover, we demonstrate empirically that, if investors are risk-averse and consider higher order moments, they have numerous incentives not to diversify their portfolios fully. This is caused by the evolution of both large losses and asymmetry of returns when the numbers of assets in a portfolio change.     

‘Free actors’ and organizations: critical remarks about the new career literature,based on French insights

What is the reality of contemporary careers? Have individuals become masters of their professional destiny? While the ‘new career literature’ puts forward the figure of an individual free to invent his/her career (the ‘free actor model’), this article shows that the changes purported to affect careers are less radical than they seem. Despite a weakening of environments, discriminating career mechanisms are still imposed on cadres, at least in France. Because individuals do not always have the means or the will to escape those mechanisms, ‘external clues’ continue to mark careers more than the new career literature supposes. To account for the realities observed in France, this paper proposes a specific view on careers, which highlights why career rules still exist in the country.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.