Sovereign debt: Reputation, seizure and reputation

The interaction between a creditor and a sovereign debtor is described as a ‘one-shot’ game with discrete actions—total or no debt-repudiation and seizure of asset holding abroad. Possible Nash equilibria where each player chooses an action as to maximize his expected payoff given his beliefs about the other player’s action and the implications of those actions on the players’ trustworthy reputation are identified. However, if reputation losses rise convexly with the players’ relative hostility, partial repudiation and seizure can be the preferred strategies. The preferred repudiation and seizure rates are analyzed under asymmetric and symmetric information about the state of the world. (JEL classification F34)     

Partial ownership and cross-border mergers

Partial ownership can be used as a screening device by a foreign firm which wants to merge with a local firm whose productivity is private information. As partial ownership is confined to sharing future merger profits, it cannot achieve complete separation in all cases but improves expected merger gains also in an equilibrium which is not fully separating. Without partial ownership, the foreign firm potentially discriminates against high productivities. In a pooling equilibrium with partial ownership, however, it will potentially discriminate against intermediate productivities.     

Benefit Transfer in Europe: How Reliable Are Transfers between Countries?

The benefits for specific health impacts related to air and water quality were measured in simultaneous contingent valuation surveys conducted in five different European countries. Consistent inter-country differences in willingness to pay to avoid ill health episodes could not be explained by measurable differences in individual characteristics. International transfer of unit values resulted in an average transfer error of 38%. Accounting for measurable differences among countries in health status, income and other demographic measures, either through ad hoc adjustments to the transferred values or through value function transfer, did not improve transfer performance.     

A model of political parties

This paper presents a new model of political parties. I assume that the role of parties is to increase the commitment ability of politicians vis-à-vis the voters. Whereas a politician running alone can only offer his ideal policy, the set of policies that a party can commit to is the Pareto set of its members. I show that the commitment mechanisms provided by the institution of parties has no effect when the policy space is unidimensional; the policies parties can induce in equilibrium arise also when politicians are running independently. However, when the policy space is multidimensional, politicians use the vehicle of parties to offer equilibrium policies that they cannot offer in their absence.     

Agent-based modelling of novelty creating behavior and sectoral growth effects—Linking the creative and the destructive side of innovation

For grasping the relationship between novelty creating activities of agents and growth of economic aggregates, a multi-level approach is suggested. The first level specifies the triggering conditions for novelty creating activities for the agents, i.e. firms. Here the behavioral elements and the modes of actions for the firms are portrayed using an agent-based approach (Section?2). On the second level, the consequences of successful innovations and imitations in a given sector of economic activities are dealt with (Section?3). This depends on the frequency of successful novelties and on the way they diffuse in that sector. We use an agent-related functional approach, applying difference equations for depicting the stylized facts of the diffusion dynamics. Only if these different levels of economic dynamics are distinguished as well as related to each other, is it possible to derive aggregate effects of novelties for the whole economy. This will be done by way of computer simulations (Section?4). Conclusions are drawn in Section?5.     

Is economic rebalancing toward consumption “greener”? Evidence from visibility in China, 1984–2006

The Chinese government has adopted a rebalancing strategy since 2011, shifting from an investment- to consumption-oriented growth model. An aim of this reform is for a “greener” development mode, but relevant empirical evidence is slim. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology to shed light on the environmental externalities of economic rebalancing. First, we use air visibility across China to reflect air quality during 1984–2006. Second, with the daily visibility data, we propose a weekend-effect regression model to difference out city-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Third, we approximate local consumption intensity with the portion of the residential electricity usage in the total electricity usage. To our surprise, the estimates suggest that the pollution intensity of consumption activities has not only been significant, but also exceeded that of production since the mid-1990s. Hence, rebalancing toward consumption is not necessarily more environmentally friendly according to the recent development experience of China.     

JOINING EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

We examine the real option implicit in countries' decisions on whether to join a monetary union when future benefits of this move are uncertain. Our theoretical model is calibrated for the current Euro‐12 area and EU‐15 outs, proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates, debt‐to‐GDP and potential‐to‐actual‐GDP ratios. The Euro‐12 area is generally ready or close to wanting to expand, whereas the EU‐15 outs are unready to make that move at present and have widely varying probabilities of wanting to do so in the future, depending on the measure used.     

The most popular tax in Europe? Lessons from the Irish plastic bags levy

There have been occasional ad hoc efforts to influence consumer behaviour by the imposition of product taxes that reflect external costs imposed by such products that are not initially included in their price. In the spirit of this idea, in 2002 Ireland introduced a 15 Euro cent tax on plastic shopping bags, previously provided free of charge to customers at points of sale. The effect of the tax on the use of plastic bags in retail outlets has been dramatic—a reduction in use in the order of 90%, and an associated gain in the form of reduced littering and negative landscape effects. Costs of administration have been very low, amounting to about 3% of revenues, because it was possible to integrate reporting and collection into existing Value Added Tax reporting systems. Response from the main stakeholders: the public and the retail industry, has been overwhelmingly positive. Central to this acceptance has been a policy of extensive consultation with these stakeholders. The fact that a product tax can influence consumer behaviour significantly will be of interest to many policymakers in this area. This paper analyses the plastic bag levy success story and provides insights and general guidelines for other jurisdictions planning similar proposals.

The long-run impact of new medical ideas on cancer survival and mortality

ABSTRACT

We test the hypothesis that the arrival of new medical ideas played a major role in the long-run increase in US cancer survival and decline in cancer mortality, by investigating whether the types of cancer (breast, colon, lung, etc.) subject to greater penetration of new ideas, measured using the MEDLINE/PubMED database, had larger subsequent survival gains and mortality reductions, controlling for changing incidence. The 5-year survival rate is strongly positively related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12–24 years earlier; evidence from case studies that it takes a long time for research evidence to reach clinical practice. Between 1994 and 2008, the 5-year observed survival rate for all cancer sites combined increased from 52.1% to 61.2%. The estimates suggest that about 70% of this increase may have been due to the increase in the novelty of medical ideas 12–24 years earlier. The number of years of potential life lost from cancer before ages 80 and 70 and the number of cancer deaths are inversely related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12–24 years earlier, conditional on the number of patients diagnosed 1–10 years before and their mean age at time of diagnosis.     

LIVING RATIONALLY UNDER THE VOLCANO? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HEAVY DRINKING AND SMOKING*

This study investigates whether models of forward‐looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nested models that differ by their degree of forward‐looking behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that forward looking models fit the data better than myopic models. These models also dominate other behavioral models based on out‐of‐sample predictions using data of men aged 70 and over. Myopic models predict rates of smoking for old individuals, which are significantly larger than those found in the data on elderly men.