An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa

This paper applies a factor‐augmented Markov‐switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle and its turning points. In the principal components step, 123 variables are used to establish the aggregate cyclicality in all sectors of the economy with the number of factors chosen using a modified Bai and Ng method. By exploiting the rich nature of the dataset, we provide a model with well‐defined statistical properties that compares favourably with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) dating points. Combining the results of the parametric approach followed in the Markov‐switching model and the non‐parametric approach followed by the SARB should allow for a robust turning point analysis. A Markov‐switching model of real gross domestic product is also estimated because this variable is commonly used in the literature and provides a benchmark for the factor models.     

The brand anchoring effect: A judgment bias resulting from brand awareness and temporary accessibility

Following the Selective Activation, Reconstruction, and Anchoring (SARA) and consumer‐based brand equity models, high awareness brands are expected to serve as anchors for forming impressions of co‐branded entities. Comparing the brand personality profiles of fictitious brand alliances with high and low awareness brands, the brand anchoring effect is found in Studies 1 and 2. Moreover, Study 3 shows that the effect generalizes to specific brand characteristics and results from making brand‐related information more available. Future research on brand awareness and on the brand anchoring effect is discussed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

“Wilderness” – A designation for Central European landscapes?

The concept of “wilderness” has been intensively discussed as an approach for nature protection in Central Europe among managers of protected areas, decision makers, natural and social scientists. This paper discusses the various attempts for physical definitions for Central Europe. It examines, if “wilderness” a suitable expression for communicating different types of places designated “wilderness”, especially in the context of rising awareness and acceptance in all parts of society of the demands of the national strategies for protecting biodiversity. Literature surveys were carried out in order to find expert quotes on the physical definitions, spatial characteristics, and attributes of “wilderness”. For the analytical perception of the general public, a survey using opinion polls among visitors in the Müritz National Park in north-eastern Germany was carried out. A quantitative approach was chosen, and interviewees were selected on an objective, systematic basis. The paper demonstrates, that the wilderness discussion among experts in Central Europe lacks a common physical and spatial definition. It can be shown that there are strong ethical and religious, educational and cultural motifs in the demand for wilderness. For a broad range of laypersons interviewed in Müritz National Park, “wilderness” seems to be a suitable, positive label for wetlands, shorelines, large forests and remote mountain areas. Important key factors, aside from natural features, are few human traces, little infrastructure and few persons using an area, so that visitors experience a feeling of solitude.     

Should the forensic accounting profession be regulated?

Adopting Huber’s (2012) argument that forensic accounting has become a profession, this paper examines whether the forensic accounting profession and the forensic accounting certification industry should be regulated. Several recent studies have uncovered significant problems within the forensic accounting profession and the forensic accounting certification industry. The failure of forensic accounting corporations to disclose either their legal status or the qualifications of their officers and directors, their failure to publish financial statements, and their failure to adopt or enforce a Code of Ethics or Standards of Practice, were among the most significant problems uncovered. The failures of the corporations were exacerbated by forensic accountants’ failure to investigate diligently the corporations that issued their certifications prior to obtaining their certifications. This resulted in a significant number of forensic accountants holding certifications from corporations that were inconsistent with their beliefs that a forensic accounting corporation should be not-for-profit, and their officers and directors should be qualified.Those studies suggested three alternatives for addressing the problems: voluntary action by the corporations, establishing an independent agency for accrediting the corporations and certifications, and regulatory intervention. However, the feasibility of the recommended alternatives was not sufficiently evaluated to be able to arrive at a conclusion for recommending which alternative should be implemented.This paper evaluates the feasibility of alternative solutions. It concludes that the most realistic alternative is for government regulation of forensic accounting in the form of legislation at the state level.     

Wages in the East German Transition Process: Facts and Explanations

We analyze wage developments in the East German transition process both at the macro- and at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we draw special attention to the important distinction between product and consumption wages, describe the development of various wage measures, labor productivity and unit labor costs in East Germany in relation to West Germany, and relate these developments to the system of collective wage bargaining. At the microeconomic level, we describe changes in the distribution of hourly wages between 1990 and 1997 and analyze the economic factors determining these changes by way of empirical wage functions estimated on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel for East Germany. The paper also draws some conclusions on the likely future course of the East–West German wage convergence process.     

Directing Retribution: On the Political Control of Lower Court Judges

The sentencing decisions of trial judges are constrained bystatutory limits imposed by legislatures. At the same time,judges in many states face periodic review, often by the electorate.We develop a model in which the effects of these features ofa judge's political landscape on judicial behavior interact.The model yields several intriguing results: First, if legislatorscare about the proportionality of punishment, judicial discretionincreases with their punitiveness. Second, voters are limitedby two factors in their ability to make inferences about judicialpreferences based on observed sentences: the extent to whichjudges are willing to pander to retain office and the rangeof judicial discretion mandated by the legislature. Finally,legislators can sometimes manipulate judicial discretion toaid sufficiently like-minded voters in their efforts to replaceideologically dissimilar judges.