Nachfragesysteme für österreich

Summary This paper gives an empirical reexamination of the Linear-Expenditure-hypothesis for Austria. It starts with a brief theoretical discussion of the principal properties and restrictions of the Linear-Expenditure-System (LES). To obtain empirical estimates of the parameters of the LES two different estimation procedures are applied, i.e. the original method used byStone and a simplified version of the Systems-Least-Squares-approach (following theMarquardt-algorithm). There are no essential differences between these estimates. They all seem plausible and satisfy the theoretical restrictions.Usually the stability (i.e. time-invariance) of the parameters is accepted without proof. Using the Moving-Window-Regression-technique, however, most of the estimates vary significantly in time. To obtain a direct proof of the time-dependence of the parameters the LES is reestimated now including trend-factors. Especially results considering time-dependent marginal-budget-shares are considerably better than the static-model results.The conclusion of this paper is that the static version of the LES does not explain the consumer behaviour in Austria and that much more effort should be spent on the estimation of dynamic demand systems.     

Finance–Growth Nexus and the P‐bias: Evidence from OECD Countries

Recent studies provide new empirical evidence confirming that financial development is linked to economic growth in OECD countries. Using new dynamic panel regression techniques, these appraisals indicate that within the group of high‐income countries stock market size as a measure of financial advancement contributes significantly to overall economic activity. Applying the same advanced techniques, this paper questions this conclusion by showing that the findings of these studies seem to be not only not robust with respect to adding new observations but also likely to be plagued by a severe price bias which belittles the information content of the used financial indicator (stock market capitalization). We provide evidence that anticipative price effects (i.e. expectations of future growth, reflected in current stock prices) may be driving the statistical relationship between stock market activities and economic growth in high‐income countries to a much larger extent than recent analyses of the finance– growth link in OECD countries suggest .     

Trade impediments,domestic goods,and the transfer problem

Zusammenfassung: Handelshindernisse, heimische Güter und das Transferproblem. — Handelshemmnisse sind eine entscheidende Voraussetzung für die Existenz heimischer Güter, deren Faktorkombination tendenziell der des Exportsektors zu entsprechen pflegt. Dies deswegen, weil der heimische Sektor die Faktoren absorbiert, die — wenn Handelshemmnisse entstehen — aus dem Sektor der handelbaren Güter freigesetzt werden. Eine Verbesserung der Handelsbilanz verursacht dann eine Senkung der Einkommen jener Faktoren, die sowohl im Exportsektor als auch im heimischen Sektor relativ intensiv genutzt werden, und das führt zu einer Verschlechterung der Terms of trade. Die Existenz heimischer Güter erh?ht andererseits tendenziell die Preiselastizit?t der Angebotskurve. Die ?unmittelbare? Wirkung von Behinderungen auf die Transferbedingungen besteht darin, den kritischen Wert der Importneigung für unver?nderte Terms of trade zu erh?hen. Das gilt sowohl für Transportkosten wie auch für Z?lle.

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Résumé: Les obstacles en commerce extérieur, les produits locaux et le problème de transfert. — Les produits locaux existent à cause des obstacles en commerce extérieur et ont la tendance d’avoir une ?mix de facteur? comme le secteur exportable. Cela se passe parce qu’ils doivent absorber les facteurs mis en ch?mage par les secteurs des biens commerciables si les obstacles deviennent effectifs. Une augmentation de la balance commerciale puis cause une chute des revenus de rente sur les facteurs qui sont intensifs en secteurs exportants aussi bien que locaux, et cela conduit à une réduction des termes d’échange. D’autre part les produits locaux ont la tendance d’augmenter l’élasticité de prix de la courbe d’offre. L’effet ?direct? des obstacles sur les conditions de transfert est d’augmenter la valeur critique des propensions d’importation pour les termes d’échange pas changés. Cela est juste pour les frais de transport aussi bien que pour les tarifs.

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Resumen: Impedimentos para el comercio, bienes domésticos y el problema de la transferencia. — Los bienes domésticos existen debido a las barreras comerciales y tienden a contener una combinación de factores similar a la del sector exportable. Esto es así, porque ellos deben absorber los factores liberados por los sectores de bienes comerciables cuando se erigen las barreras. Un incremento de la balanza comercial induce una caída en la renta de los factores utilizados intensivamente tanto en los sectores exportadores como domésticos y esto lleva a una reducción de los términos del intercambio. Los bienes domésticos por el otro lado, tienden a aumentar la elasticidad-precio de la curva de oferta. El efecto ?directe? de las barreras sobre las condiciones de transferencia es el de aumentar el valor critico de las propensidades para importar frente a términos comerciales inalterados. Esto es válido para costos de transporte como también para tarifas.

     

The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia

Currently, there exists relatively little research investigating the long-term association between stock and direct real estate markets. Using appropriate transaction-based property indices, this study focuses on the relationship between stock and direct real estate markets in nine Asian countries from the period 1980 to 2012 through both linear and nonlinear cointegration techniques. We find empirical evidence of linear cointegration of stock and property markets in Taiwan, fractional cointegration in Singapore and Hong Kong and no evidence of cointegration in China, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea. It is concluded that segmentation of property markets from stock markets does not appear to be linked to the differences in the maturity of national financial markets and that the differing degrees of integration across Asia may instead be reflective of a range of factors impacting upon the underlying economic structures in each country.     

Rural development and financial markets in Romania

In the transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, such as in Romania, the domestic financial market plays two important roles. First, the financial market itself must be fundamentally restructured. Second, its efficient functioning is a crucial precondition for economic transformation. In transition economies, however, financial market institutions tend to concentrate their services on urban or larger rural enterprises. So far, small rural enterprises, even those with profitable investment plans, often do not have access to the financial market. This paper briefly characterizes the key issues of agricultural production units and their institutional environment and analyzes the depth and the efficiency of rural finance and its effect on Romania's rural economic transformation. It concludes with policy and institutional recommendations to strengthen rural finance.