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31.
Disentangling Alliance Management Processes: Decision Making, Politicality, and Alliance Performance
Jorge Walter Christoph Lechner Franz W. Kellermanns 《Journal of Management Studies》2008,45(3):530-560
abstract Using a sample of 106 organizations engaged in strategic alliances, we develop and test a framework of alliance-related organizational decision-making processes and their impact on alliance performance. With regard to direct effects, our results show a negative impact of decision-making recursiveness and no significant relationship for openness and procedural rationality. Acknowledging the importance of the organization's micropolitical context in which these decision processes are embedded, we also test the moderating influence of politicality. Our findings provide support for our hypotheses that in a context of low politicality, the decision-making characteristics of openness and procedural rationality have a positive influence, whereas recursiveness negatively affects alliance performance. In a context of high politicality, however, openness and procedural rationality exert a negative influence, and the negative impact of recursiveness is aggravated. We suggest that alliance-related decision making cannot be adequately understood without explicitly considering the micropolitical context in organizations. 相似文献
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Johannes Hauptmann Anja Hoppenkamps Aleksey Min Franz Ramsauer Rudi Zagst 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2014,28(2):139-164
We propose an early warning system to timely forecast turbulence in the US stock market. In a first step, a Markov-switching model with two regimes (a calm market and a turbulent market) is developed. Based on the time series of the monthly returns of the S&P 500 price index, the corresponding filtered probabilities are successively estimated. In a second step, the turbulent phase of the model is further specified to distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. For comparison only, a Markov-switching model with three states (a calm market, a turbulent bullish market, and a turbulent bearish market) is examined as well. In a third step, logistic regression models are employed to forecast the filtered probabilities provided by the Markov-switching models. A major advantage of the presented modeling framework is the timely identification of the factors driving the different phases of the capital market. In a fourth step, the early warning system is applied to an asset management case study. The results show that explicit consideration of the models’ signals yields better portfolio performance and lower portfolio risk compared to standard buy-and-hold and constant proportion portfolio insurance strategies. 相似文献
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Wladimir Raymond Pierre Mohnen Franz Palm Sybrand Schim van der Loeff 《De Economist》2006,154(1):85-105
Summary The paper studies the degree of homogeneity of innovative behavior in order to determine empirically an industry classification
of Dutch manufacturing that can be used for policy purposes. Defining homogeneity in terms of an economic model distinguishes
our classification from existing taxonomies such as those of the OECD, Pavitt and the various classifications based on a principal
components analysis. We use a two-limit tobit model with sample selection, which explains the decisions by business enterprises
to innovate and the impact these decisions have on the share of innovative sales. The model is estimated for eleven industries
based on the Dutch Standard Industrial Classification (SBI 1993). A likelihood ratio (LR) test is then performed to test for
equality of the parameters across industries. We find that Dutch manufacturing consists of three groups of industries in terms
of innovative behavior, a high-tech group, a low-tech group and the industry of wood. The same pattern shows up in the three
Dutch Community Innovation Surveys.
The empirical part of this study has been carried out at the Centre for Research of Economic Microdata at Statistics Netherlands.
The authors wish to thank Statistics Netherlands, and in particular Bert Diederen, for helping us in accessing and using the
Micronoom data set. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors. The authors also wish to thank Fran?ois
Laisney, Patrick Waelbroek and participants at presentations in Maastricht, Strasbourg, Leuven and Lille for their helpful
comments. The first author acknowledges financial support from METEOR. 相似文献
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Theo J.B.M. Postma Author Vitae Franz Liebl Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2005,72(2):161-173
Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology. 相似文献
37.
Franz Gehrels 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2005,33(2):151-157
Fluctuations in domestic product and balance of payments are treated as Markov processes in discrete time instead of as deterministic paths. Emphasis is on the case when movements are in probability away from steady-state paths until they reach some barrier. The initiating disturbances are random events, and the task of policymakers is to respond with countervailing measures. These occur with time lags and produce stochastic processes of their own. The outcome is a probabilistic path which never quite matches the desired steady-state path. The first, one-dimensional case is that of the domestic product and the government budget. Next, the paper deals with the two-dimensional case of domestic product and balance of trade, with budget and exchange rate as instruments. Finally, it treats domestic product, trade balance, and capital account—using the budget, the exchange rate, and the monetary measures—as corrective devices. 相似文献
38.
The paper considers n-dimensional VAR models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common cyclical features. Two specific reduced rank vector error correction models are discussed. In one, named the “strong form” and denoted by SF, the collection of all coefficient matrices of a VECM has rank less than n, in the other, named the “weak form” and denoted by WF, the collection of all coefficient matrices except the matrix of coefficient of error correction terms has rank less than n. The paper explores the theoretical connections between these two forms, suggests asymptotic tests for each form and examines the small sample properties of these tests by Monte Carlo simulations. 相似文献
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