Modeling the time varying volatility of housing returns: Further evidence from the U.S. metropolitan condominium markets

This study extends the literature on modeling the volatility of housing returns to the case of condominium returns for five major U.S. metropolitan areas (Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco). Through the estimation of ARMA models for the respective condominium returns, we find volatility clustering of the residuals. The results from an ARMA‐TGARCH‐M model reveal the absence of asymmetry in the conditional variance. Dummy variables associated with the housing market collapse unique to each metropolitan area were statistically insignificant in the conditional variance equation, but negative and statistically significant in the mean equation. Condominium markets in Los Angeles and San Francisco exhibit the greatest persistence to volatility shocks.     

Forensic accounting services in English local government and the counter-fraud agenda

ABSTRACT

Fraud is a growing challenge for English local government, yet the resources and support local authorities (LAs) have available to prevent, detect and investigate it are limited. Forensic accounting services (FAS) provided by external specialist private sector firms, particularly those undertaking mandatory external audit, might be one solution. Research reported in this paper suggests, however, that existing English LA users are not all convinced. Nevertheless, better awareness and understanding of what FAS have to offer, perhaps through case studies of successful implementation, would be a valuable contribution to helping local government enhance its counter-fraud capabilities and make informed decisions about how best to meet the increasingly complex fraud challenge.     

How much do plant guarantees reduce perceived risk?

Abstract

Consumers do perceive risk in purchase decisions and seek to reduce both uncertainty and probability of loss. Risk also varies across persons and purchasing situations. Retailers promote product guarantees as risk reducers, but the quantitative evidence is lacking. They offer guarantees to help resolve outcomes from post-purchase problems mainly, product performance. We used an online survey to investigate the role of risk mitigation by money-back guarantees (MBGs) on a live product: plants. We obtained online responses from 504?US residents?≥?age 18 years who had made at least one live plant purchase in the six months prior to the study. As MBG length increased, perceived risk (PR) decreased. PR was higher for men than for women and declined as income increased. Subjects with a higher level of product involvement, expertise, delight, repurchase intentions, and regret had a higher level of PR. We conducted separate Chow tests for annual and perennial plants by price and MBG length and found several break points. As price increased from $5 to $10, a 30-d MBG reduced PR for annual plants while the reduction in PR was incrementally decreased for all guarantee lengths when annuals were priced over $20. With perennial plants, the MBG had an increasingly larger effect on reducing PR for each $10 increase in price. Overall, for each day increase in MBG length, we observed a 0.0337 decrease in PR, which meant that a 90-d MBG on a plant would reduce PR by 3%. This quantitative evidence of reduction in PR should encourage the use and communication of MBGs which have the potential to improve purchases, customer retention, and profitability.     

Tunneling and propping: A justification for pyramidal ownership

This paper links existence of the pyramidal ownership structure to tunneling and propping. Tunneling refers to a transfer of resources from a lower-level firm to a higher-level firm in the pyramidal chain, whereas propping concerns a transfer in the opposite direction intended to bail out the receiving firm from bankruptcy. We show that tunneling alone cannot justify the pyramidal structure unless outside investors are myopic, since rational outside investors anticipate tunneling and adjust their willingness-to-pay for the firm’s shares accordingly. With propping, however, they may be willing to be expropriated in exchange for implicit insurance against bankruptcy.     

Relationship Incentives and the Optimistic/Pessimistic Pattern in Analysts' Forecasts

We examine whether analysts' incentives to maintain good relationships with management contribute to the optimistic/pessimistic within‐period time trend in analysts' forecasts. In our experiments, 81 experienced sell‐side analysts from two brokerage firms predict earnings based on historical information and management guidance. Analysts' forecasts exhibit an optimistic/pessimistic pattern across the two timing conditions (early and late in the quarter), and the effect is significantly stronger when the analysts have a good relationship with management than when their only incentive is to be accurate. Debriefing results indicate that analysts are aware of this pattern of forecasts, and believe that this benefits their future relationships with management and with brokerage clients. The analysts most frequently cite favored conference call participation and information access when describing benefits from maintaining good relationships with management. Our results suggest the following: The optimistic/pessimistic pattern in forecasts is in part a conscious response to relationship incentives, information access is perceived to be a major benefit of management relationships, and recent regulatory changes may have lessened but have not eliminated this conflict of interest source.     

Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion

This paper explains U.S. macroeconomic outcomes with an empirical New Keynesian model in which monetary policy minimizes the central bank’s loss function. The presence of expectations in the model forms a well‐known distinction between two modes of optimization, termed commitment and discretion. The model is estimated separately under each policy using maximum likelihood over the Volcker–Greenspan–Bernanke period. Comparisons of fit reveal that the data favor the specification with discretionary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights point to an excessive concern for interest rate smoothing in the commitment model but a more balanced concern relative to inflation and output stability in the discretionary model.     

Market Orientation and the New Product Paradox

The extant literature shows that the strength of the market orientation–performance relationship decays as the terminal measure of performance shifts from new product success to profitability to market share. As Day (1999) concluded, a broader nomological inquiry is needed to more fully understand the nature and limits of market orientation's effects. This suggests that a broader nomological inquiry is needed to fully understand the nature and limits of market orientation's effects.
Utilizing a national sample of marketing executives, the present study's purpose is to build a fuller understanding of the effects of market orientation on firm performance. Its structural equations model includes measures of new product success, profitability, and market share.
The research reinforces a strong positive relationship between market orientation and new product success. The expanded nomological network under study, however, implies barriers to market orientation's effectiveness. First, market-orientation-inspired increases in the priority firms place on "breakthrough" learning without commensurate increases in the priority placed on "breakthrough" innovation capabilities can boomerang and negatively impact new product success. Second, market-orientation-inspired new product development programs that are unable to increase market share can negatively impact profitability. These gatekeepers to the success of market orientation underscore the need for firms to coordinate a strong market orientation with resources and capabilities that increase the effectiveness of the marketing function. Without such coordination, the positive effect of market orientation on new product success may be limited to incremental innovations, and the overall effect of successful new products on profitability may be limited.     

Sales force technology usage—reasons, barriers, and support: An exploratory investigation

Increasingly, salespeople are being asked to adopt and use a variety of technologies to increase their selling productivity and efficiency, including sales force automation and customer relationship management technologies. However, little research has investigated what happens once sales force automation (SFA) technology is adopted. This paper explores the reasons why salespeople use SFA technologies, the perceived barriers to SFA usage and how management can increase the usage of SFA technology. First, a qualitative study was performed to gain insight about salespeople's automation technology usage and the reasons why some salespeople fully use or do not utilize technology. After the initial study, 130 salespeople were surveyed. More productivity/efficiency was the main reason why salespeople use technology, the lack of management and technical support proved to be the main barrier to usage, and training proved most effective in increasing usage of SFA technology. Sales managers are provided with implications of the findings.     

The influence of the financial press on stockholder wealth: the case of corporate governance

This study examines the impact that the publication of ratings of boards of directors by the business press has on stockholder wealth. We report findings from an event study of price reactions to the publication of Business Week's 1996 and 1997 ratings of boards of directors of U.S. corporations. As hypothesized, favorable ratings resulted in significant positive abnormal returns after controlling for market effects and confounding events, with only novel information explaining statistical variance. Contrary to expectations, unfavorable ratings also resulted in positive abnormal returns. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of CEO relative standing in acquisition behavior and CEO pay

In this study, we develop and test a theory of CEO relative pay standing. Specifically, we propose that CEOs with negative relative pay standing status (underpaid relative to comparison CEOs) will engage in acquisition activity, as a self‐interested means of attempting to realign their pay with that of their peers. We further propose that, when CEOs with negative relative pay standing acquire, they will tend to finance those acquisitions more heavily with stock than cash, to mitigate the risk associated with those deals. Finally, we argue that acquisition activity will partially mediate the influence of CEO negative relative pay standing on subsequent CEO compensation increases; however, that pay growth will come primarily in the form of long‐term incentive pay. Our results support our predictions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.