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31.
Using the bootstrap method, we explore the characteristics of revisions in Japanese earnings forecast data. We find that forecast revisions exhibit a downward trend over time as the actual earnings announcement date approaches, and are serially correlated with three significant lags. Using these characteristics we develop a model to estimate abnormal forecast revisions, and illustrate the model's use with a sample of Japanese companies announcing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In contrast to results obtained by studies using American data, our findings indicate significant positive upward revisions when Japanese firms announce an SEO.  相似文献   
32.
Constitutional assemblies are a common feature of many democratic transitions. However, the goal of coordinating constitutional choice would seem nearly impossible when assemblies are comprised of highly fragmented and volatile political parties. Building on Knight’s bargaining model, this article argues that the main challenge to coordination in unstable party systems is the procedural disequilibrium that results from incomplete information over breakdown payoffs. The likelihood of compromise in such circumstances is a function of the ideologies that frame constitutional choice and inform coalition-building. Thus, unstable party systems are not chaotic, although they may be deeply conflict-laden. These issues are illustrated empirically via the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, which demonstrates the possibilities for a stable constitutional order emerging from a fragmented and volatile party system.
Gary ReichEmail:
  相似文献   
33.
This article discusses Bayesian inference in change‐point models. The main existing approaches treat all change‐points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change‐points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change‐points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as “noninformative,” and treats the number of change‐points as unknown. Artificial and real data exercises show how these different priors can have a substantial impact on estimation and prediction.  相似文献   
34.
This research responds to the attendant need for empirical evidence pertaining to how marketing affects firm performance. Using the Fama-French method, common in finance, and a leading marketplace measure of a brand’s financial equity value, the authors provide empirical evidence for the branding-shareholder value creation link. The results extend previous research by showing that strong brands not only deliver greater returns to stockholders than does a relevant benchmark but do so with less risk This finding holds even when market share and firm size are considered. Barclays Global Investors Thomas J. Madden is a professor of marketing and director of the Professional MBA/Executive International MBA programs at the Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina. His research focuses on the measurement of brand meaning, marketing metrics, and value-based marketing strategies. His research has appeared in theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, and theJournal of Consumer Behavior. Frank Fehle (frank.fehle@barclaysglobal.com) is the head of Europe Equity Research at Barclays Global Investors in London, United Kingdom. Previously, he was an assistant professor of finance at the University of South Carolina. His research focuses on empirical asset pricing, market microstructure, risk management, and derivatives. His work has appeared in theJournal of Financial Economics, theJournal of Futures Markets, theJournal of Economics and Business, theReview of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, among other journals and conference proceedings. Susan Fournier is an associate professor of marketing at Boston University. Her research focuses on branding and brand relationship marketing. Current projects explore person-brands, resonance as a moderator of the brand meaning → brand strength connection, the types of relationships consumers form with brands, and dynamic processes of relationship development and evolution. She served for 9 years on the Harvard Business School faculty and 2 years as a visitor at Dartmouth College. She consults with a range of companies to inform her teaching, case development, and research.  相似文献   
35.
Buyers' perspectives of buyer-seller relationship development   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Long-term buyer-seller relationships have been a focus of research for several years. The present study draws on interaction/network theory to test a model examining the interaction mechanisms and relationship characteristics of buyer-seller relationships during four progressive phases of relationship development. Data from 174 members of the Institute for Supply Management offer empirical support for the associations proposed in the model, as well as some surprising results. One of the most useful findings of the research is that the patterns of these associations vary as buyer-seller relationships progress through the four phases of relationship development. Specifically: in the awareness phase, joint problem solving increases buyer uncertainty; in the exploration phase, communication quality and joint problem solving increase relationship-specific investments; and in the expansion phase, joint problem solving increases relationship-specific investments and severe conflict resolution increases buyer uncertainty. Seller reputation moderates many of these relationships. The major conclusion of the research is that buyers and sellers should recognize that while information exchange and conflict resolution are important aspects of buyer-seller relationships, their use may not always lead to the desired relationship characteristics. Managerial implications of these findings and further research ideas are presented.  相似文献   
36.
Growing dissatisfaction with the prevailing dispersed urban form and its generalized reliance on the automobile has resulted in the formulation of planning models seeking to substitute dispersed development with recentralization. A survey of 301 planning documents with a metropolitan focus, originating from the 58 US and Canadian urban regions with a population exceeding one million, reveals widespread support for urban recentralization. But interviews with 55 planners, involved in the preparation of these plans and/or the implementation of their proposals, highlight actual and foreseen barriers to the implementation of recentralization strategies. The article interprets the popularity of recentralization in planning documents as the outcome of planners' attempts to reconcile their commitment to sustainable development with societal factors affecting planning possibilities. Still, we anticipate serious problems in achieving large‐scale recentralization due to urban development path dependencies emanating from the prevailing urban form and dynamics, institutional structures, and from the limited urban transformative potential afforded by neoliberalism.  相似文献   
37.
Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Ecological Inference: The R×C Case   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
In this paper we propose Bayesian and frequentist approaches to ecological inference, based on R × C contingency tables, including a covariate. The proposed Bayesian model extends the binomial-beta hierarchical model developed by K ing , R osen and T anner (1999) from the 2×2 case to the R × C case. As in the 2×2 case, the inferential procedure employs Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. As such, the resulting MCMC analysis is rich but computationally intensive. The frequentist approach, based on first moments rather than on the entire likelihood, provides quick inference via nonlinear least-squares, while retaining good frequentist properties. The two approaches are illustrated with simulated data, as well as with real data on voting patterns in Weimar Germany. In the final section of the paper we provide an overview of a range of alternative inferential approaches which trade-off computational intensity for statistical efficiency.  相似文献   
38.
This mixed‐method study of 48 P–12 school administrators across three southeastern states was done to begin investigation of the impact of nontraditional leadership factors. As evidenced by the results, there is a strong correlation between the factors of emotional intelligence and resilience and leadership success.  相似文献   
39.
One of the most widely discussed and highly agreed upon curricular issues for business and economic programs is the need to integrate international topics into the curriculum. Evidence indicates that little progress has been made in achieving this objective. To ignite the process of internationalizing the curriculum, a departmental study abroad program, based on the experience of Niagara University and Schiller International University, is proposed. Unlike most study abroad models, this approach systematically links the curricula of the host and domestic institutions. Faculty, who on most campuses are largely bystanders in the study abroad process, now assume a central role. This approach makes study abroad a major campus focus and a source of faculty development in international topics.  相似文献   
40.
With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.  相似文献   
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