WORLD OUTLOOK

In the second quarter of 1980 recession spread from the United States to other OECD countries. We estimate that this process continued in the third quarter and forecast that it has a further six months to run. The latest US indicators suggest that some recovery may have taken place in the third quarter. We do not believe at this stage that any such recovery is currently sustainable. Our forecast of the world economy implies continuing US recession and some further drop in output in Europe and Japan.     

Risk,uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example

The differential impacts risk and uncertainty have on travel decision-making were explored by examining the constructs' influence on the antecedents of intentions to visit Australia using the theory of planned behavior. Respondents were obtained from online consumer panels in South Korea, China and Japan. The South Korean and Chinese samples were general population samples, while the sample from Japan was an international travelers' sample. The extended model fitted the data well, explaining between 21 and 44 percent of the variance in intentions. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control significantly impacted on intentions in all country samples, whereas attitudes toward visiting Australia were only significant in Japan. Subjective norms influenced attitudes and perceived behavioral control in all country samples. Finally, perceived risk influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and Japan, while perceived uncertainty influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and China and perceived behavioral control in China and Japan.     

Shop-floor attitudes to industrial relations change

Whilst the shop-floor workers interviewed showed a high degree of interest in, and knowledge of, the Industrial Relations Bill, there were deep divisions over the necessity of introducing the law into the industrial relations system and of the results of doing so.     

Going short‐term or long‐term? CEO stock options and temporal orientation in the presence of slack

Research summary: We draw on behavioral agency theory to explain how decision heuristics associated with CEO stock options interact with firm slack to shape the CEO's preference for short‐ or long‐term strategies (temporal orientation). Our findings suggest CEO current option wealth substitutes for the influence of slack resources in encouraging a long‐term orientation, while prospective option wealth enhances the positive effect of slack on temporal orientation. Our theory offers explanations for non‐findings in previous analysis of the relationship between CEO equity based pay and temporal orientation and provides the insights that CEO incentives created by stock options (1) enhance the effect of available slack upon temporal orientation and (2) can both incentivize and de‐incentivize destructive short‐termism, depending upon the values of current and prospective option wealth. Managerial summary: We explore how compensation design can play a role in affecting the CEO's preference for short‐ or long‐term strategic projects. When the CEOs have accumulated option wealth, they are more likely to invest in the long term. Yet when they have a large number of recently granted options with the potential to generate significant wealth in the event of successful risk taking, the CEO is more likely to prefer the short term in order to achieve personal wealth gains more quickly. The more liquid assets the firm holds, the weaker both of the aforementioned effects. An implication for boards is that they should anticipate CEO short‐termism if the CEO has been granted new options, underlining the potential negative consequences of option compensation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Government Consumption and Industrial Productivity: Scale and Compositional Effects

Within a production function framework in which government spending produces public goods which enter firms production functions, empirical tests using time series data spanning eleven countries and thirty industries find both the scale and the composition of government consumption spending to affect the level and the rate of growth of total factor productivity at the industry level.Jel Classification: H50, D24     

Integrating decomposition approaches for the analysis of temporal changes in economic structure: an application to Chicago's economy from 1980 to 2000

This paper presents an attempt to integrate two flow decomposition methods to analyse temporal changes in a region's economic structure. The two methods of structural analysis are push–pull decomposition analysis and structural Q-analysis. Push–pull analysis presents a quasi-optimization decomposition of a set of matrices with actual intersectoral economic flows into a weighted set of matrices, while structural Q-analysis provides a form in which the structure of these decomposed flows can be considered. The paper provides an expository application to Chicago's economic structure over the period of 1980 to 2000, to reveal a complementary perspective of hollowing-out the production process in the Chicago economy that was identified in previous studies.     

Behavioral agency and corporate entrepreneurship: CEO equity incentives & competitive behavior

Scholars have long studied drivers of entrepreneurial behavior among established firms. Yet little is known about how individual factors shape a firm’s choice to pursue entrepreneurship. We draw on behavioral agency theory to explore the role of equity incentives in driving corporate entrepreneurship. Our findings suggest CEOs avoid corporate entrepreneurial behaviors as their option wealth increases. However industry dynamics also prove to be an important contingency when predicting the effects of both restricted stock and stock options on the likelihood that the CEO engages in corporate entrepreneurship. Our findings provide a theoretical platform for predicting dimensions of entrepreneurial behavior and highlight effects of CEO equity ownership.

     

AN APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED TRANSPORT NETWORK – MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL TO THE CALIBRATION OF SYNERGY EFFECTS OF HIGHWAY INVESTMENTS

A transportation network-multiregional CGE model is applied to estimate the synergy effects of a set of highway projects on value added by region and industrial sector. This synergy effect is defined as a difference between the summation of the net GDP increase from the development of each highway sub-link without spatial linkage and the change in GDP resulting from the concurrent development of all links with spatial linkages. Among nine east–west highways in Korea, the East–West 9 highway increases the GDP by 0.3% over the 30-year time period horizon, with 0.016% of the GDP due to the synergy effect. The East–West 9 highway has the largest synergy effect of US$0.164 billion per year on the manufacturing sector of Kwangju Metropolitan Area, resulting in a gain in a regional GRP per capita of US$15.88 per year. Since most synergy effects are generated in less developed regions, highway development can contribute to the reduction in regional disparities.     

The political economy of public debt

Public debt (as opposed to current taxation) alters the inter-temporal pattern of tax rates??it reduces current rates and increases future rates. Accordingly, whether the share of the cost of a given public expenditure is reduced or increased by debt for a given individual depends on the time profile of that individual??s income (tax base) vis-à-vis others?? incomes. Therefore, given the age-profile of income in virtually all Western countries, individuals will tend to be better off under current taxes the younger they are. If (as most standard models of political economy assume) individuals vote according to their economic interests, and if they are tolerably well-informed, then the pattern of support for public debt will track age. And increases in the median age of the population will lead to larger public debt. In other words, public debt policy collapses to a kind of demographic politics. This explanation may, however, be sensitive to assumptions about motives for bequest. Specifically, if bequestors seek to leave positive bequests and are motivated exclusively by the lifetime consumption of their heirs (as well as themselves) then the aged may, under plausible assumptions about the age of their heirs, prefer current taxes over debt.