RELIABILITY CRITERIA FOR NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The reliability of national accounts is determined by the adequacy of a great variety of data sources and estimating methods. This inquiry focuses on major conceptual and methodological problems, and while it does not solve the reliability problem, it provides a framework for reliability analysis and suggests criteria for the evaluation of results; it also assists the producers of national accounts in determining the major trade-offs between different areas of possible data improvement.     

A study of estimator densities and performance under misspecification

The exact density functions of the OLS and 2SLS estimators when exogenous variables are wrongly excluded from the equation being estimated, where two endogenous variables appear in the equation of interest, are presented and tabulated. Misspecification does not appear to alter the relative concentrations of OLS and 2SLS — OLS is always more concentrated — but does change the relative biases with the result that under misspecification OLS may indeed be the superior estimation technique. In addition, misspecification can substantially increase the concentration of both estimators, as well as reducing their biases, therebyyielding an apparent improvement in estimator performance.     

The decline and fall of US foreign aid

Foreign aid, once hailed as “the most unsordid act in history”, is in deep trouble. Despite the exhortations of the Pearson Report¹, the call for sweeping reform by various governmental commissions and the annual plea to Congress of the Agency for International Development (AID), economic assistance is rapidly declining, and the future looks even bleaker.     

University-industry links: Government as blacksmith

With continuing high inflation, declining productivity, negative trade balances and other indicators pointing to diminishing technology leads in the United States, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of technology innovation in increasing productivity and international trade competitiveness and in combatting inflation. One element in creating an environment more receptive to technology innovation is establishing appropriate linkages between universities, industry and government. Traditional linking mechanisms between universities and industry may not be adequate or flexible enough to meet the challenges of the next several decades. Based upon findings at several Congressional hearings, there is a need to encourage new mechanisms linking universities and industry. Several legislative initiatives have been proposed in the 96th Congress which would encourage such university-industry linkages.