Is the Middle East an Optimum Currency Area? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits

This paper examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of adopting a common currency for 13 Middle Eastern countries. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, while the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the member country’s output is not sufficiently correlated with the area’s, as a whole. Using data from 1980–2005, the paper finds that the estimated cost and benefit measures exhibit substantial variability across the countries and are sometimes positively correlated. Moreover, focusing on the results for the last decade, it seems that many Middle Eastern countries (such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates) have achieved remarkable convergence both in business-cycle synchronization and inflation outcomes.

MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE RUN‐UP TO THE EMU

We characterize central bank behavior in the euro area during the run‐up to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) era by estimating Taylor rule‐type reaction functions at both the individual and aggregate level. We focus on whether national monetary policies during the run‐up to the EMU were responding to economic developments according to their own policy rules or to a broader, euro area‐wide, policy rule. To consider the last possibility we examine whether national monetary policies were responding to German interest rates. Finally, we compare the performance of the estimated with imposed policy rules.     

Dual foreign currency markets and the role of expectations: Evidence from the Pacific Basin countries

This paper analyzes the role of expectations about the government policy in the official foreign currency market in determining the black market premium. We use data for the recent float from six emerging markets of the Pacific Basin where active black markets for foreign currency exist, namely, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. To test the impact of anticipated and unanticipated shocks to the official exchange rate on the black market premium, we employ the two-step procedure of Hoffman et al. [Hoffman, D.L., Low, S.A., Schlagenhauf, D.E., 1984. Tests of rationality, neutrality and market efficiency: a Monte Carlo analysis of alternative test statistics. J. Monet. Econ. 14, 339–363] which provides corrected F-statistics and allows us to draw valid inference in the presence of generated regressors. The main finding of our analysis is that anticipated and unanticipated shocks to the official exchange rate have an impact on the black market premium in all six Pacific Basin countries. These results suggest that portfolio balance models provide the suitable theoretical framework for analyzing the behaviour of the black market premium in the markets for foreign currency in the Pacific Basin countries. Furthermore, this implies that economic agents in these countries are sensitive to expected returns in foreign exchange.     

Corporate Political Activities and the SEC's Oversight Role in the IPO Process

We study how a regulator (Securities and Exchanges Commission; SEC) responds to IPOs that have a higher political profile. We find that IPOs with issuers (intermediaries) that actively pursue political strategies receive more (less) SEC comment letters than IPOs without such actors. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that the IPO's political environment moderates the relationship between social pressure for more corporate transparency and SEC scrutiny. Additional tests indicate that the political activities of issuers (intermediaries) contribute to a less (more) efficient IPO process. Overall, our findings suggest that politically active intermediaries have stronger incentives to accurately portray the IPO financial reporting environment than politically active issuers because they have greater reputational and political capital at stake; quite simply, the former have more to lose. We draw out the implications for theory, in terms of agency and reputation.     

Public policies to enhance regional entrepreneurship: another programme failing to deliver?

Small Business Economics - This paper examines public policies aimed at enhancing entrepreneurship. Drawing upon both theory and prior empirical work, it formulates four tests of policy...     

The determinants of net interest margin during transition

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In this paper we examine the banking sector of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries during the transition period 1998–2016 in a...     

Neural network copula portfolio optimization for exchange traded funds

This paper attempts to investigate if adopting accurate forecasts from Neural Network (NN) models can lead to statistical and economically significant benefits in portfolio management decisions. In order to achieve that, three NNs, namely the Multi-Layer Perceptron, Recurrent Neural Network and the Psi Sigma Network (PSN), are applied to the task of forecasting the daily returns of three Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The statistical and trading performance of the NNs is benchmarked with the traditional Autoregressive Moving Average models. Next, a novel dynamic asymmetric copula model (NNC) is introduced in order to capture the dependence structure across ETF returns. Based on the above, weekly re-balanced portfolios are obtained and compared using the traditional mean–variance and the mean–CVaR portfolio optimization approach. In terms of the results, PSN outperforms all models in statistical and trading terms. Additionally, the asymmetric skewed t copula statistically outperforms symmetric copulas when it comes to modelling ETF returns dependence. The proposed NNC model leads to significant improvements in the portfolio optimization process, while forecasting covariance accounting for asymmetric dependence between the ETFs also improves the performance of obtained portfolios.     

Firm resources,cultural distance and simultaneous international expansion in the retail sector

Despite the fact that many firms simultaneously expand into multiple new markets, we know very little about why firms choose this type of international expansion instead of sequentially entering new markets. Drawing on the resource-based view (RBV) we argue that in order to engage in simultaneous international expansion firms have to be able to draw on intangible assets, be financially strong, and have international experience that will enable them to reduce and/or shoulder the strains on managerial resources, time compression diseconomies and costs of simultaneously entering multiple new overseas markets. We further expect the strength of these associations to be moderated by the cultural distance between a firm’s home country and newly entered countries. Our analysis of the international expansion of the sales operations of 102 retailers over the period 2003–2012, during which these retailers sequentially or simultaneously entered into a total 836 overseas markets, largely supports our hypotheses. Our study underlines the usefulness of the RBV for understanding simultaneous international expansion as an important phenomenon that has received only scant scholarly attention to date.     

Effective risk aversion in thin risk‐sharing markets

We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We argue that traders relatively more exposed to the market portfolio tend to behave in a more risk tolerant manner. Noncompetitive equilibrium prices and allocations result as an outcome of a game among traders. General sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of such equilibrium are provided, with extensive analysis of two‐trader transactions. Even though strategic behavior causes inefficient social allocations, traders with sufficiently high risk tolerance and/or high initial exposure to tradable securities obtain more utility gain in the noncompetitive equilibrium, when compared to the competitive one.