The consequences to managers for financial misrepresentation

We track the fortunes of all 2,206 individuals identified as responsible parties for all 788 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) enforcement actions for financial misrepresentation from January 1, 1978 through September 30, 2006. Fully 93% lose their jobs by the end of the regulatory enforcement period. Most are explicitly fired. The likelihood of ouster increases with the cost of the misconduct to shareholders and the quality of the firm's governance. Culpable managers also bear substantial financial losses through restrictions on their future employment, their shareholdings in the firm, and SEC fines. A sizeable minority (28%) face criminal charges and penalties, including jail sentences that average 4.3 years. These results indicate that the individual perpetrators of financial misconduct face significant disciplinary action.     

The representation of American options prices under stochastic volatility and jump-diffusion dynamics

This paper considers the problem of pricing American options when the dynamics of the underlying are driven by both stochastic volatility following a square-root process as used by Heston [Rev. Financial Stud., 1993, 6, 327–343], and by a Poisson jump process as introduced by Merton [J. Financial Econ., 1976, 3, 125–144]. Probability arguments are invoked to find a representation of the solution in terms of expectations over the joint distribution of the underlying process. A combination of Fourier transform in the log stock price and Laplace transform in the volatility is then applied to find the transition probability density function of the underlying process. It turns out that the price is given by an integral dependent upon the early exercise surface, for which a corresponding integral equation is obtained. The solution generalizes in an intuitive way the structure of the solution to the corresponding European option pricing problem obtained by Scott [Math. Finance, 1997, 7(4), 413–426], but here in the case of a call option and constant interest rates.     

Size versus scope: on the trade-off facing economic unions

This paper analyzes the relationship between the size of an economic union and the degree of policy centralization. We consider a political economy setting in which elected representatives bargain over the degree of centralization within the union. In our model, strategic delegation affects the identity of the representatives, and hence the equilibrium policy outcome. We show that the relationship between the extensive and the intensive margin of centralization may be non-monotonic: Up to a certain threshold a larger size implies deeper integration, whereas beyond that threshold centralization declines with further increases in size. We also show that freezing the level of centralization and associate memberships can mitigate this trade-off.     

Public sector pay: Comparability,no‐strike agreements,and ‘pendular’ arbitration

Leaving aside the disputes, like the miners’ and the teachers’, that have flared into the open, there is evidence of growing resentment within the public sector at the Government's pay policy (see page 9). This paper, an edited version of a speech to the CIPFA annual conference in June this year, suggests a way forward for both public and private pay.     

Community care in England,Scotland and Wales

How far does the writ of Whitehall and Westminster really run? An analysis of community care shows that a policy common to successive Governments has been interpreted in radically different ways in England, Scotland and Wales. Can this lack of uniformity be turned to advantage?     

Accounting comparability and relative performance evaluation in CEO compensation

We investigate whether accounting comparability is associated with the likelihood that CEO compensation is tied to relative accounting performance (e.g., return on assets). We predict that higher accounting comparability increases the risk-sharing benefit of accounting-based RPE because peer firm performance better controls for common risk in RPE firm performance. Thus, firms that have higher accounting comparability with potential performance peers will be more likely to include accounting-based RPE as a component of the total CEO compensation contract. We find support for this prediction using (1) an explicit test design that relies on the ex ante terms of CEO compensation contracts obtained from proxy disclosures, and (2) an implicit design that relies on the actual realizations of CEO compensation. To provide further evidence, we examine the association between accounting comparability and the selection of performance peers when the CEO compensation contract includes an accounting-based RPE component. We find that higher comparability between the RPE firm and a potential peer firm increases (decreases) the potential peer firm’s likelihood of being selected into (dropped from) the peer group. Cross-sectional analyses show that this association is less pronounced, or not present, when the relative performance measure is price-based (as opposed to accounting-based), indicating that these results do not merely reflect a more general role of comparability in all RPE contracts.     

Public re-release of going-concern opinions and market reaction

This paper examines the market reaction to the public announcement of going-concern (GC) opinions through the news media. In the early 2000s, NASDAQ and AMEX required firms listed on their exchanges to publicly announce previously disclosed information, such as the issuance of a GC opinion, through a press release or the news media. We examine the stock market reaction to the re-release of GC opinions. We find significant abnormal stock return volatility and trading volume at the re-release of this information. Further, based on an analysis of intraday transactions, we find higher abnormal trading activity in small trades around the re-release of the GC opinion, but largely no changes in large trades during the same period. In this respect, the investors that initiate the small trades act as if they are surprised by the information contained in the press release of GC opinions. Such an action, in turn, can be viewed as evidence of a delayed response to the information in GC opinions by a section of investors.     

Diminishing Returns and the Limit of Athletic Performance

The purpose of this paper is to estimate athletic performance profiles over time, to establish that diminishing returns is a characteristic of performance functions, to measure the rate of the marginal decline, and to measure the upper (lower) bound or limit of performance. The empirical results yield estimates of the limiting value of athletic performance and the frontier maximum (minimum) record. Since lower bounds in the running events have been shown to be sensitive to choice of the nonlinear model, logistic and an exponential model for the men's running and distance events are estimated as a cross-check on my differential equation model. The issue of the gender gap (whether women will ever catch men) in athletic performance is also explored.