Overtime reductions: Negligible employment effects

Summary Overtime hours were worked in Germany during the period 1990–1997 primarily by well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers. In addition, it is evident that overtime is increasingly being compensated by flexible leisure schedules. The scope for potential employment effects from a reduction of paid overtime is thus constantly decreasing and is much lower than the figures cited by unions in the current discussion. If the regulations to make working time more flexible being discussed in the “Alliance for Jobs’ were to be implemented, this would reinforce the observed trend towards compensation for overtime through leisure, further diminishing the potential employment effects. If the bargaining parties or the legislators would implement a reduction of overtime nonetheless, well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers in western Germany will suffer income losses.     

Eigentumsentflechtung,deep-ISO,der dritte Weg — wohin führt die Reise der Europäischen Energiemärkte?

This paper discusses vertical unbundling of networks from the commercial businesses in the European energy markets. The current status quo in the political field in Brussels is to implement a choice between three options: ownership unbundling, the “deep-ISO”, the “third way”. The “third way” is the strengthening of the current unbundling regulations, but will change hardly anything in the industry structure. The “deep-ISO” requires the separation of system operations into an independent entity, whereas transmission ownership does not change hands and thus possibly remains in one hand with the power plants. If the ISO decides and orders network investment, we speak of a “deep-ISO”. The more controversial proposal is ownership unbundling. A social-cost-benefit-analysis of the German transmission system operators (Brunekreeft, 2008) suggests that the likely overall effect for social welfare is slightly positive, but effects are small.     

Marginal Employment: No Jobs Miracle

Original Papers

Marginal Employment: No Jobs MiracleTowards a permanent decline of secondary employment?     

Benchmarking regression algorithms for loss given default modeling

The introduction of the Basel II Accord has had a huge impact on financial institutions, allowing them to build credit risk models for three key risk parameters: PD (probability of default), LGD (loss given default) and EAD (exposure at default). Until recently, credit risk research has focused largely on the estimation and validation of the PD parameter, and much less on LGD modeling. In this first large-scale LGD benchmarking study, various regression techniques for modeling and predicting LGD are investigated. These include one-stage models, such as those built by ordinary least squares regression, beta regression, robust regression, ridge regression, regression splines, neural networks, support vector machines and regression trees, as well as two-stage models which combine multiple techniques. A total of 24 techniques are compared using six real-life loss datasets from major international banks. It is found that much of the variance in LGD remains unexplained, as the average prediction performance of the models in terms of R² ranges from 4% to 43%. Nonetheless, there is a clear trend that non-linear techniques, and in particular support vector machines and neural networks, perform significantly better than more traditional linear techniques. Also, two-stage models built by a combination of linear and non-linear techniques are shown to have a similarly good predictive power, with the added advantage of having a comprehensible linear model component.     

THE DUTCH ECONOMY 1921–39: REVISED MACROECONOMIC DATA FOR THE INTERWAR PERIOD

A set of revised macroeconomic time series for the Netherlands 1921–39 is presented. The series cover the "Consolidated Accounts for the Nation" of the SNA in current prices as well as the national product account and some additional series in prices for the previous year. The new interwar series differ considerably from the data that has been published before. They are also more comprehensive, more detailed, and conceptually consistent with the modern national accounts.