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51.
Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978–2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6–0.7 (1.8–2.2) percentage points. 相似文献
52.
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970–2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities to GDP is a significant crisis predictor. This is primarily due to the net position in debt instruments—the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem, if anything, an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor; iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; and iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises sensu stricto. 相似文献
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Antonello D'Agostino Luca Gambetti Domenico Giannone 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》2013,28(1):82-101
The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real‐time out‐of‐sample exercise using a time‐varying coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility to predict the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in the USA. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular, the forecasts of inflation are much more accurate than those obtained with any other competing model, including fixed coefficients VARs, time‐varying autoregressions and the naïve random walk model. The results hold true also after the mid 1980s, a period in which forecasting inflation was particularly hard. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
56.
Luca Paolo Merlino 《Labour economics》2012,19(4):557-567
I study the interaction between discrimination and investment using a directed search model where firms decide the capital intensity of their production technologies before being matched. Discrimination makes some workers cheap to hire. As a consequence, some firms might save on capital costs adopting labour intensive technologies. This framework allows one to reconcile search models with three well-known facts regarding the labour market outcomes of minority workers: low wages, high unemployment and occupational segregation. Furthermore, the model questions the role of equal pay legislation in reducing inequality since removing this restriction, i.e., allowing firms to post type-contingent wages, eliminates the negative effects of discrimination on investment and wages. 相似文献
57.
Recognizing the inflexibility inherent in standard capital budgeting analysis, recent research has provided new insights using a real options framework. This paper uses the explicit finite difference approach to value real options. However, instead of assuming a constant return and volatility term, we assume that these variables are sensitive to changes in the economic environment. Accordingly, we adapt our approach to incorporate a Markov switching feature. Further, we recognize that some of the modeling assumptions can be violated in a practical application. Therefore, we recommend using range based estimates of the real option value, as opposed to a point estimate. 相似文献
58.
We offer an analysis of the existence of a positive relationship between minimum wages and economic growth in a simple one-sector
overlapping generations economy à la Romer (J Polit Econ 94:1002–1037, 1986), in the case of both homogeneous and heterogeneous labour and without considering any growth-sustaining externalities which
the minimum wage can generate. Assuming also the existence of unemployment benefits financed with balanced-budget consumption
taxes not conditional upon age, we show that the minimum wage can promote economic growth and welfare despite the occurrence
of unemployment. There may also exist a growth- and welfare-maximising minimum wage. 相似文献
59.
Luca Andriani 《Review of social economy》2013,71(3):354-378
This article argues that behaving prosocially reduces regional finance differentials in terms of interest and insolvency rates. This is because prosociality implies more transparent information and cooperation among the parties engaged in a financial contract. The context of study is Italy, well known for its regional economic and financial disparities. The analysis is developed through a cross-regional two period panel model during the years 1998 and 2003. Empirical evidence shows that regions with a higher proportion of prosocial individuals report lower interest and insolvency rates. When legal enforcement is included in the specified model, evidence suggests that more efficient third-party enforcement can transmit a stronger sense of legal abidance and facilitate the internalisation of social norms of cooperation. 相似文献
60.
A monotonic spline parametrization is proposed as a reliable alternative to the traditional Bernstein-based approach for Direct Term Structure Estimation. Numerical experiments with Italian bond data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献