The selection of migrants and returnees in Romania

This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees on observable characteristics. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill‐specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants are driven by different returns to skills in countries of destination. Our identification strategy for the effects of work experience abroad permits a cautious causal interpretation of the premium to return migration. This premium increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non‐migrants. Based on the compatibility of the results with rationality in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational‐agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long‐run effects on average skills and wages.     

Tariff‐tax Reforms in Large Economies

This paper studies tariff‐tax reforms in a two‐region global New Keynesian model composed of a developing and an advanced region. In our baseline calibration, a revenue‐neutral reform that lowers tariffs in developing countries can reduce domestic welfare. The reason is that the increase in developing countries welfare due to higher output is dominated by the welfare losses stemming from the deterioration of the terms of trade. On the other hand, the reform increases output and welfare in the advanced countries and in the world as a whole. The effects that we highlight have not been studied in previous contributions to the literature, which looks at tariff‐tax reforms using a small open economy framework. Nominal rigidities have important implications for adjustment dynamics in our model. In the case of a ‘point‐for‐point’ reform, for example, price stickiness implies that the international dynamics of output is reversed compared to a revenue‐neutral reform.     

Engendering Economic Recovery: Modeling Alternatives to Austerity in Europe

This article explores a gendered expansionary macroeconomic scenario for Europe as an alternative to current austerity policies over the medium term. Using a non-equilibrium structuralist macroeconomic model, it demonstrates that the dual aim of economic growth and increases in men’s and women’s employment can be achieved by adopting gender-sensitive expansionary macroeconomic policies. Based on historical data series, three scenarios for Europe for the 2015–25 period are compared: continued austerity, a gender-neutral expansionary scenario, and a gendered expansionary scenario. Projections for the gendered expansionary scenario suggest that 7.4 million more jobs could be created for women in the Eurozone and United Kingdom by reversing austerity policies and gendering and increasing government expenditure and private investment. Further, higher growth rates under this scenario lead to significant reductions of debt-to-GDP ratios and lower budget deficits. The study recommends Europe should roll back austerity policies and embark on a new gender-aware economic trajectory.     

Determinants of the growth aspiration: a quantitative study of Venezuelan entrepreneurs

The article examines the determinants of the growth aspiration of Venezuelan entrepreneurs. We use the GEM database and build an econometric model based on a set of exogenous variables grouped into three large categories: contextual or environmental factors, individual factors and business variables. Given the Venezuelan specific characteristics, we place a particular focus on understanding the differences between entrepreneurs belonging or not to the BoP. The primary findings of this work are the identification of the variables that explain growth aspiration, namely, belonging to the BoP, gender, education, motivation and years of study and some additional variables where individual factors interact with the contextual factor BoP. The second finding is that there are significant differences for the entrepreneurs belonging and not belonging to the BoP, with a threshold where the entrepreneurs of the BoP become averse to continuing to aspire to growth. Practical and policy implications are elaborated with the results.     

Detecting the relationship between competitive intensity and firm product line length: Evidence from the worldwide mobile phone industry

The way firms lengthen or shorten their product line with respect to rivals is regarded as one of the possible strategies firms can pursue to respond to competition. This article builds and tests hypotheses to study the effect of different levels of competitive intensity on product line length. The empirical analysis of data on 3,527 handset models introduced by 66 mobile phone vendors from 1994 to 2010 shows a consistent inverse U‐shaped relationship between competitive intensity and the firm's product line length. In this way, we pinpoint an interesting link between the product line extension literature and the competitive dynamics and competitive intensity perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Openness and optimal monetary policy

We show that the composition of international trade has important implications for the optimal volatility of the exchange rate, above and beyond the size of trade flows. Using an analytically tractable small open economy model, we characterize the impact of the trade composition on the policy trade-off and on the role played by the exchange rate in correcting for price misalignments. Contrary to models where openness can be summarized by the degree of home bias, we find that openness can be a poor proxy of the welfare impact of alternative monetary policies. Using input–output data for 25 countries we document substantial differences in the import and non-tradable content of final demand components, and in the role played by imported inputs in domestic production. The estimates are used in a richer small-open-economy DSGE model to quantify the loss from an exchange rate peg relative to the Ramsey policy conditional on the composition of imports. We find that the main determinant of the losses is the share of non-traded goods in final demand.     

The subprime asset-backed securities market and the equity prices of large complex financial institutions

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the subprime asset-backed collateralized debt obligations (CDO) market and Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). We attempt to account for the dynamics between the ABX index returns and the banks’ equity returns through conditioning our analysis on the historical correlation between the variables. Three key results emerge from the analysis. First, we find a positive correlation between movements of the ABX index and the equity returns for all the LCFIs. Second, the volatility of ABX index returns tend to be transmitted to the volatilities of the equity returns of the financial institutions. Third, ABX prices changes lead equity returns changes of the European-based LCFIs. For the US LCFIs a two-way linkage emerges.     

Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration

There is a long-standing debate among academics about the effect of immigration on native internal migration decisions. If immigrants displace natives this may indicate a direct cost of immigration in the form of decreased employment opportunity for native workers. Moreover, displacement would also imply that cross-region analyses of wage effects systematically underestimate the consequences of immigration. The widespread use of such area studies for the US and other countries makes it especially important to know whether a native internal response to immigration truly occurs. This paper introduces a microsimulation methodology to test for inherent bias in regression models that have been used in the literature. We show that some specifications have built biases into their models, thereby casting doubt on the validity of their results. We then provide a brief empirical analysis with a panel of observed US state-by-skill data. Together, our evidence argues against the existence of native displacement. This implies that cross-region analyses of immigration’s effect on wages are still informative.