UNCERTAINTY AND DENSITY FORECASTS OF ARMA MODELS: COMPARISON OF ASYMPTOTIC,BAYESIAN, AND BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURES

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of uncertainty on density forecasts of stationary linear univariate ARMA models. We consider three specific sources of uncertainty: parameter estimation, error distribution, and lag order. Depending on the estimation sample size and the forecast horizon, each of these sources may have different effects. We consider asymptotic, Bayesian, and bootstrap procedures proposed to deal with uncertainty and compare their finite sample properties. The results are illustrated constructing fan charts for UK inflation.     

How User‐Created‐Content (UCC) Service Quality Influences User Satisfaction and Behaviour

The Internet is undergoing a gradual shift from Web 1.0‐based user interaction to Web 2.0, which has a greater emphasis on user‐created content (UCC) and user collaboration (Hsu & Hsu, 2008). Since existing models of e‐service quality are likely deficient under Web 2.0, we build on them and test a new framework using 319 users who frequented UCC websites. Among other findings, three service elements together explained 44% of the variance in user satisfaction and 33% of the variance in website usage. These elements were: the provider‐user relationship (customization and participation), the relationship among users (e.g., user empowerment), and user compensation. Copyright © 2012 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign affiliates' knowledge sourcing from parent firms

This study investigates the factors that influence the extent to which foreign research and development affiliates source knowledge from their parent firms, by developing theoretical hypotheses that predict patterns of foreign affiliates' knowledge sourcing according to their technological capabilities at multiple levels (firm, industry, and country). We use cross‐border mergers and acquisitions and patent citation data from Fortune Global 500 firms to test our theoretical arguments. The findings suggest that a parent firm's foreign affiliate ownership, industry‐level R&D intensity, and home–host country differences in technological capabilities increase foreign affiliates' knowledge sourcing from their parent firms.     

The financial sustainability of Portuguese Private Institutions of Social Solidarity: are the critical regions preserved from the fade?

Quality & Quantity - The objective of this work was to financially analyze the balance sheets and financial reports from a sample of Portuguese non-profit organizations. These organizations...     

The missing link between innovation and performance in Brazilian firms: a panel data approach

This study aims to verify if there is a positive relationship between innovation and productivity and/or profit in Brazil using a recursive model in line with the Crépon, Duguet and Mairesse (CDM) model. Using a rich combination of three databases, this paper considers a sample of more than 10,000 Brazilian industrial firms and the period 2001–2008. Besides using R&D expenditure as a measure of innovation input, this study also tests the technical-scientific personnel stock as a more appropriate measure of innovative effort in emerging countries. This variable considers the tacit knowledge intrinsic to the worker and corrects a possible measurement error bias in the R&D expenditure variable. The empirical strategy uses a reduced form of the CDM model in a panel data structure to provide consistent estimates as it controls for selectivity, simultaneity and endogeneity due to unobserved firm effects. There are still few studies that apply the CDM model for panel data, especially regarding developing countries. The main results suggest that technical-scientific workers positively affect the firms’ probability to innovate while R&D expenditure has no effect. The results also highlight the absence of the effect of innovation on productivity and profit, suggesting a missing link between innovative efforts and Brazilian firms’ performance.     

Modeling tourists' visiting intentions toward ecofriendly destinations: Implications for sustainable tourism operators

The previous literature has overlooked the examination of tourists' visiting intentions for ecofriendly destinations. Hence, anchored in Schwartz (1992) personal values and the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the present study aims to develop a research model for application in Chinese settings. Survey findings from 467 tourists reveal significant positive relationships between tourists' values of resultant self‐transcendence and conservation and TPB factors (i.e., attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control), with the exception of the relationship between conservation and perceived behavioral control. Moreover, TPB factors and perceived green image were found to have positive effects on tourists' intentions to visit ecofriendly destinations. In addition, environmental consciousness positively moderates the relationships between the two Schwartz values and attitude. Theoretical implications are provided, and the study's findings have strategic practical implications for business managers. We acknowledge the study's limitations and offer research directions for future ecofriendly tourism scholars.     

Survey Into the Seafood Consumption Preferences and Patterns in the Portuguese Population: Education,Age, and Health Variability

A survey into the seafood consumption preferences and patterns in the Portuguese population was carried out. Consumers were asked to state their preferences toward different kinds of fish products, to indicate their consumption frequencies of a total of 23 products, to mention the average meal portion, and to inform about the usual culinary treatments applied to the raw products. It was observed that the sensory characteristics of each product and cultural habits seem to influence serving size. For horse mackerel and canned sardines, an inverse correlation between education level and consumption frequency was found. Moreover, the consumption frequency of soaked cod, the main salted and dried fish in the Portuguese market, decreased with higher education. Older consumers were much fonder of wild fish and much more unwilling to consume farmed fish than the younger ones. It was also found that obese people deviate from other weight groups in that their preferences and consumption quantities are displaced to foods other than seafood.     

The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 weakened the Taiwanese economy. The tourism industry suffered the most, experiencing the highest stock price decline (approximately 29 percent) within a month of the SARS outbreak. This research examined the effect of the SARS epidemic on Taiwanese hotel stock price movements using an event-study approach. Seven publicly traded hotel companies experienced steep declines in earnings and stock price during the SARS outbreak period. On and after the day of the SARS outbreak, Taiwanese hotel stocks showed significantly negative cumulative mean abnormal returns, indicating a significant impact of the SARS outbreak on hotel stock performance. Empirical findings could be used to prepare businesses for the similar epidemics, such as a deadly bird-flu epidemic.     

Antecedents and consequences of relationship quality in hotel industry

This study investigated the antecedents and consequences of relationship quality. This study will help hotel managers to develop and implement effective relationship marketing strategies. Effective usage of relationship marketing strategies will be able to improve hotel performance such as share of purchases, relationship continuity, and word of mouth. To analyze data collected from 12 five-star hotels in Seoul, the linear structural relationship (LISREL) model was used to identify structural characteristics of relationship management between service providers and guests. The empirical results of this study were threefold. First, greater service providers’ relational and customer orientation resulted in higher relationship quality. Second, better service providers’ attributes resulted in higher relationship quality. Third, higher relationship quality resulted in higher share of purchases and better relationship continuity and share of purchases.     

Exploring the Role of Travel and Tourism in Sharing Economy Activities: A Case Study of South Korea

This study explores the role of travel and tourism in sharing economy activities by using a case study of Seoul, South Korea. The findings reveal 1) significant associations between respondents’ demographic and socio-economic characteristics and their participation level in diverse sharing economy activities; 2) significant differences in future intention to participate in diverse sharing economy activities among groups; and 3) interest in travel and tourism was most strongly related to future intention to participate in diverse sharing economy activities. Policy making implications of the sharing economy focused on the role of travel and tourism are discussed in the conclusion.