An N‐factor Gaussian model of oil futures prices

This article studies the ability of an N‐factor Gaussian model to explain the stochastic behavior of oil futures prices when estimated with the use of all available price information, as opposed to traditional approaches of aggregating data for a set of maturities. A Kalman filter estimation procedure that allows for a time‐dependent number of daily observations is used to calibrate the model. When applied to all daily oil futures price transactions from 1992 to 2001, the model performs very well, requiring at least three factors to explain the term structure of futures prices, but four factors to fit the volatility term structure. The model also performs very well for daily copper futures transactions from 1992 to 2001 and for out‐of‐sample daily oil futures transactions from 2002 to 2004. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:243–268, 2006     

Conditional forecasts on SVAR models using the Kalman filter

This note shows how conditional forecasts from identified VAR models can be computed using Kalman filtering techniques. These techniques are nowadays routine for applied macroeconomists, and hence the computation of conditional forecasts using these methods are simple to implement.     

The erosion of personal norms and cognitive dissonance

In this article, we study how personal norms and behaviour interact and evolve when agents try to reduce cognitive dissonance, and how this dynamic relates to Nash equilibrium. We find that in long run, agents play, and norms prescribe, Nash equilibrium in material payoffs (in the absence of norms). Our model captures two main facts: (i) norms erode along the play of the game; (ii) the erosion of norms depends on the set of possible economic choices, so that the policy maker can potentially influence them.     

Do Extrinsic Incentives Undermine Social Norms? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Energy Conservation

Policymakers use both extrinsic and intrinsic incentives to induce consumers to change behavior. This paper investigates whether the use of extrinsic financial incentives is complementary to intrinsic incentives, or whether financial incentives undermine the effect of intrinsic incentives. We conduct a randomized controlled trial that uses information interventions to residential electricity customers to test this question. We find that adding economic incentives to normative messages not only does not strengthen the effect of the latter but may reduce it. These results are consistent with recent theoretical work that suggests a tension between intrinsic motivation and extrinsic incentives.     

How to Spot a Careerist Early On: Psychopathy and Exchange Ideology as Predictors of Careerism

Careerism refers to an individual’s propensity to achieve their personal and career goals through nonperformance-based activities (Feldman, The Indus Org Psychol 39–44, 1985). We investigated the role of several dispositional predictors of careerism, including Five-factor model (FFM) personality traits, primary psychopathy, and exchange ideology. Based on data from 131 respondents, as expected, we observed that emotional stability was negatively correlated with careerism. Primary psychopathy and exchange ideology explained additional variance in careerism after accounting for FFM traits. Relative importance analyses indicated that psychopathy (relative weight percentage of explained variance = 42.1 %) and exchange ideology (relative weight percentage = 44.1 %) were equally important in predicting careerism. We highlight the need for future research efforts investigating the combined effects of contextual factors—particularly, human resource practices—and individual differences to understand careerism in the workplace.     

Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either known or unknown dates. It relies upon testing for parameter breaks in a regression of one of the factors estimated by Principal Components analysis on the remaining estimated factors, where the number of factors is chosen according to Bai and Ng’s (2002) information criteria. The test fares well in terms of power relative to other recently proposed tests on this issue, and can be easily implemented to avoid forecasting failures in standard factor-augmented (FAR, FAVAR) models where the number of factors is a priori imposed on the basis of theoretical considerations.     

The Impact of Membership in the Ethics Officer Association

In this study, we propose considering membership in the Ethics Officer Association (EOA) as a proxy for the firm's commitment to ethical decision making, and we analyze the influence of firm- and CEO-specific characteristics on this commitment. While we observe a positive relationship between membership and firm size, we also document a negative relationship between EOA membership and the executive's time in position and, to a more modest extent, accounting returns. Pursuing this further, we present evidence that firms with past legal issues may seek EOA membership as a signal of their intention to be compliant in the future.     

Job exit of men: new job destination versus unemployment destination

Job exit of men over the age of forty is described and analysed using monthly observations derived from the 1988-89 UK Retirement Survey. A competing risks model is described and estimated. The results show that tenure and age determine transitions from a job to a new one, whereas those transitions from a job to unemployment are also determined by business cycle variables.     

Objectives,Techniques and valuation of state-owned companies in privatization processes

This article aims to analyse the objectives and the techniques of privatization and the valuation methods applied in the state-owned company privatization processes in order to determine the coherence between the formal privatization objectives stated by governments and the techniques and the valuation methods chosen to carry out the sale of state-owned companies. From the results of an international survey carried out by the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions (INTOSAI), we study the privatization practices in three groups of countries: the most developed OECD countries, Eastern European countries and developing countries. While the reasons that have motivated state-owned company privatizations all over the world are quite similar, the techniques of privatization used by these three groups are different with regard to the purpose of the privatization, the ways of carrying it out and the methods of fixing the sale price.