Relationship between the mode of land redistribution,tenure security and agricultural credit use in KwaZulu-Natal

Data collected from interviews with new landowners in KwaZulu-Natal in 1999 show that households on four government-assisted projects had less tenure security than households that acquired land via private transactions. Households in government-assisted projects also used less agricultural credit and had less liquidity and less wealth. The probability of households using agricultural credit increased with more secure tenure, more household wealth (number of durable goods), higher liquidity and higher levels of household education. It is recommended that more emphasis be placed on redistributing land through the private market and encouraging the creation of management committees or joint enterprises to utilise the land settled by large groups of beneficiaries. This would be a first step towards making tenure more secure, most notably in the government land reform projects. More secure tenure would improve the creditworthiness of emerging farmers, thereby creating incentives for investing in improvements and complementary inputs to raise agricultural performance.     

Run length and the predictability of stock price reversals

Survival analysis is used to estimate time‐varying probabilities of price reversals using daily data for the Australian All Ordinaries Price Index. Lagged price changes lead to persistence (shortening) in a price run if they are of the same (opposite) sign as the run. An increase in the number of runs observed in the previous 30 days also increases the probability of price reversal. The predictive accuracy of the models is assessed using a probability scoring rule. Consistent with market efficiency, the estimated models are less accurate than the random walk model in predicting the length of individual price runs out‐of‐sample.     

Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings*

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life‐cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. We find empirical support for this effect using a cross‐country panel of national savings rates.     

Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization

By the end of January 2001, all NYSE stocks had converted their price quotations from 1/8s and 1/16s to decimals. This study examines the effect of this change in price quotations on ex‐dividend day activity. We find that abnormal ex‐dividend day returns increase in the 1/16 and decimal pricing eras, relative to the 1/8 era, which is inconsistent with microstructure explanations of ex‐day price movements. We also find that abnormal returns increase in conjunction with a May 1997 reduction in the capital gains tax rate, as they should if relative taxation of dividends and capital gains affects ex‐day pricing.     

The Organization of Innovation Brokers: An International Review

Research on networks of innovation has typically focused on relationships of competition and collaboration between firms in the network, sometimes extending the analysis to sources of new ideas such as universities. More recently, attention has been paid to the activities of intermediaries in such networks, which facilitate the innovation process, which are positioned between the sources and users of innovations. This paper focuses on the organization of a distinctive type of intermediary, which we have defined as an innovation broker, by providing an analysis of 10 case studies of organizations dedicated to innovation broking from around the world. Innovation brokers in our definition are organizations that are founded especially to undertake an intermediary role, rather than performing that role as a by-product of their principal activities. The results of this analysis suggest that the key role played by innovation brokers in the innovation process is the independent validation of new ideas, thereby facilitating diffusion. In order to carry out this task, innovation brokers are organized on a not-for-profit basis, typically as a public-private partnership. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for innovation theory and research in networks of innovation.     

The Emergence of Post-Suburban Landscapes on the North Coast of New South Wales: A Case Study of Contested Space

Since 1980, population trends in Australia have indicated new patterns of urbanization involving substantial growth not only in the dominant conurbations, but also in suburban areas and in an extensive coastal zone (Paris, 1994). Comparisons can be made with the emergence of post-suburban forms and processes in other parts of the world (Kling et. al., 1991). The principal aim of this paper is to present an analysis of some of the major local development conflicts and planning and environmental protection issues that are being faced by developers, planners and local communities as the urban restructuring of Australia takes place. The paper draws on evidence of urbanization on the upper North Coast of New South Wales and provides a detailed examination of two shires in the region — Ballina and Byron — where a study was carried out by the authors in 1994 and 1995. Previous research on the population and development trends in Australia is reviewed to provide a context within which the patterns in New South Wales and its North Coast may be placed, and a discussion is presented of the implications of new development with reference to Ballina Shire and Byron Shire. The usefulness of the postfordist model as an explanatory framework for examining these post-suburban landscapes and contested space issues on the North Coast of NSW is also explored.     

Serial Nonparticipation in Repeated Discrete Choice Models

We consider alternative econometric strategies for addressing serial nonparticipation, that is, repeated choice of the same alternative or same type of alternative across a series of choice occasions, in data typically analyzed within the repeated discrete choice framework. Single and double hurdle variants of the repeated discrete choice model are developed and applied to choice experiment and multisite seasonal recreation demand data. Our results suggest that hurdle models can generate significant improvements in statistical fit and qualitatively different policy implications, particularly in choice experiment applications where the proper treatment of serial nonparticipation is relatively more ambiguous.