Does Productivity in the Formal Food Sector Drive Human Ebola Virus Infections in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

As the hunting, butchering, processing, and consumption of bushmeat is a potential source of human Ebola virus (EV) infections, the extent to which bushmeat is a substitute for food produced and sold in the formal sector suggests that the relative price of food could matter for the incidence of human EV infections. This paper considers if productivity in the food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa. We estimate count data specifications of country level human EV infections as a function of food sector productivity in sub‐Saharan Africa over the 1976–2013 time period. Our parameter estimates suggest that if productivity in the food sector was on average 1 per cent higher over the 1976–2013 time period, the incidence of human EV infection would have been 42.5 per cent lower. This is consistent with bushmeat being a substitute for food produced in the formal sector, as food productivity increases lower the price of formal food relative to bushmeat. Our findings suggest that as productivity in the formal food sector is a driver of human EV infections in sub‐Saharan Africa, policy interventions that increase food productivity would enable Millennium Development Goal outcomes related to hunger, disease mitigation, and sustainability of wildlife.     

Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts

Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers’ strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.     

The joint influence of technology uncertainty and interorganizational interaction on external technology integration success

This paper empirically examines the acquisition of a technology from a source outside the firm and its incorporation into a new or existing operational process. We refer to this key activity in process innovation as external technology integration. This paper develops a conceptual framework of external technology integration based on organizational information processing theory and technology management literature. The primary hypothesis underlying the conceptual framework is that external technology integration will be most successful when the level of interaction between the source of the technology and recipient of the technology is appropriately matched, or fit, to the characteristics of the technology to be integrated. The conceptual framework also develops other hypotheses relating to contextual factors that may also influence the success of external technology integration. A cross-sectional survey methodology is employed to test the four hypotheses of the conceptual framework, with the results indicating strong support for the fit hypothesis and general support for the contextual hypotheses. The paper closes with a discussion of the implications of this study for both theory and practice.     

Dictator monopolies and essential goods: experimental evidence

Monopolists set prices and if the good is unessential this may place the consumer in an uncomfortable position. But if the good is essential the consumer faces a pay-to-live or -die choice. Dictator and ultimatum games are superficially similar in that one game offers the right of refusal, while the other does not. The dictator monopoly is, however, not a game, and behaviour could be radically different in the market environment versus game environment. We recast the dictator game as a dictator monopoly experiment and find that the fairness characteristic of the game evaporates quickly as rounds progress.     

Matching using semiparametric propensity scores

This paper considers the application of semiparametric methods to estimate propensity scores or probabilities of program participation, which are central to certain program evaluation methods. To evaluate the practical benefits, we first conduct a Monte Carlo study. Second, we use data from the NSW experiment, CPS, and PSID. We compare treatment effect and evaluation bias estimates using propensity scores estimated from parametric logit, semiparametric single index, and semiparametric binary quantile regression models. Our results suggest that it is important to account for very general forms of heterogeneity in (semiparametric) estimation of the propensity score, particularly when the treatment effects vary in an unsystematic manner with the true propensity score.     

Scarce collateral and bank reserves

If collateral for bank loans is scarce and, if as a result, access to secured loans is restricted, the allocation of resources is inefficient. In anticipation of future borrowing constraints, individuals over-invest in collateralized types of capital, and consume and invest inefficiently low levels while they are borrowing constrained. The dual counterpart of this misallocation of resources is inefficiently low interest rates. In this situation, bank reserves play a positive welfare role by adding liquidity to the economy and by increasing not only bank lending rates, but also, paradoxically, bank deposit rates. As a result, in economies with scarce collateral the optimal reserves–requirement ratio is positive.     

Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach

This paper explores how a structured decision process, based on methods from the decision sciences, can contribute to the integration of local and scientific knowledge in environmental decision making. Emphasis is placed on the use of key decision structuring steps and analytical tools to help ensure the systematic treatment of both fact-based and value-based knowledge claims. Practical methods are discussed for communicating and evaluating values and technical information across participants and cultures in ways that are methodologically rigorous and encourage different sources of credible knowledge to be considered on equal footing. Examples are presented from water use planning in British Columbia, Canada, where stakeholder consultations at 22 hydroelectric facilities demonstrate specific techniques that can be used to clarify values, to explore hypotheses, to clarify uncertainties, to identify and evaluate options, to make value-based choices, and to facilitate mutual learning.     

Price competition in the market for business telecommunications services

We estimate a two-step control-function model that relates incumbent prices for small-business telecommunications services to the number of facilities-based entrants, cost, demand, regulatory conditions, and a correction for endogenous market structure. Results show that the price effects from entry are understated in ordinary least squares regressions. When controlling for endogeneity, prices are negatively related to the number of entrants, indicating that markets without a competitive presence could exhibit market power. These findings should prove helpful to the Federal Communications Commission and other State regulators determining the conditions under which price and other forms of regulation may be relaxed.