Fiscal policy rules,budget deficits,and forecasting biases

In this paper, we analyze the impact fiscal policy rules have on budget deficits and forecasting biases in official budget outlooks. Persistent budget deficits and over-optimistic budget forecasts have been observed in many countries in the past, especially in the euro area. To prevent such developments from happening in the future, fiscal rules have been revised or implemented with the aim to strengthen both preventive (ex-ante) and corrective (ex-post) elements of fiscal rules frameworks. Do such ex-ante and ex-post rules differ in their effects? In an attempt to answer this question, we build a two-period model and distinguish between ex-ante rules that apply to budget forecasts and ex-post rules that apply to realized budget deficits. Our model indicates that effectively enforced ex-post rules are more effective than ex-ante rules at reducing budget deficits. Interestingly, ex-ante rules differ from ex-post rules in their effects on forecasting biases. Only ex-post sanctions reduce forecasting biases, while ex-ante rules have no impact on such biases. In addition, we show that political stability and the size of government increase the effectiveness of fiscal rules. If, however, financial markets have a disciplining effect on governments, the effectiveness of fiscal rules is reduced. Our results imply that if fiscal policy rules cannot be effectively enforced, reforming other areas such as electoral rules or financial market regulations might be a more promising approach to ensuring sound public finances than fiscal policy rules.     

Effects of background music endings on consumer memory in advertising

Background music is widely used in advertising to attract audiences' attention. However, no research to date has considered the effect of background music endings on consumer memory for advertised products and messages. Across two experiments, the present research shows that background music that ends abruptly (i.e., truncated ending) distracts consumers' attention, reducing memory for both products and messages, compared to background music that ends with a note in the chord of the dominant tonality (i.e., regular ending) or that concludes with a fading-out ending.     

Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities

This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.     

Market microstructure,banks’ behaviour and interbank spreads: evidence after the crisis

We present a study of the European electronic interbank market of overnight lending (e-MID) before and after the beginning of the financial crisis. The main goal of the paper is to explain the structural changes of lending/borrowing features due to the liquidity turmoil. Unlike previous contributions that focused on banks’ dependent and macro information as explanatory variables, we address the role of banks’ behaviour and market microstructure as determinants of the credit spreads. We show that all banks experienced significant variations in their liquidity costs due to the sensitivity of interbank rates to the timing and side of trades. We argue that, while larger banks did experience better funding conditions after the crisis, this was not just a consequence of the “too big to fail” perception of the market. Larger banks have been able to play more strategically when managing their liquidity by taking advantage of the changing market microstructure.

     

In search of leisure time: An endogenous growth model with leisure services

Starting from the Ladrón‐de Guevara et al.’s framework, we develop a model with an additional sector for the production of leisure services. By introducing consumption of leisure services as a time‐consuming activity, our model generalizes the standard time allocation problem whereby total available time can be allocated between work, education, free time and leisure activities. We analytically characterize the balanced growth paths of the model, particularly in terms of time allocation and growth. Our comparative analysis of different service economies assumed at equilibrium includes the case of an industrial economy without a service sector and the potential multiple equilibria of such an economy.     

Public Credit Guarantee Schemes and SMEs’ Profitability: Evidence from Italy

The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the Italian State Credit Guarantee Scheme (Central Guarantee Fund). The paper analyzes the impact of the program on SMEs’ profitability considering the firm size and sector. The analysis is performed using propensity‐score matching estimators and the Difference in Differences regressions on a proprietary sample of about 38,000 SMEs in the period 2007–2009. Overall, the Central Guarantee Fund generated an increase in the profitability of guaranteed firms during the period of economic downturn. However, significant differences emerged across firms by size and sector. The effect is positive and robust only for micro‐ and small‐sized firms, and the most relevant improvement in the profitability is recorded for firms operating in the manufacturing sector. This implies that more customized programs are necessary to reach a higher value for money in entrepreneurial policies.     

Reshoring: Does home country matter?

The role of the country, either home or host, in firms' internationalization has been widely analysed in the International Business field. A large number of studies have shown that home country shapes many aspects of firms' internationalization processes such as investment decisions, location selections, and entry modes. However, these studies mainly focus on the firms' foreign expansion. Little is known about the relations between firms’ home country and reshoring processes. This paper aims to analyse whether and how reshoring projects are different across countries, thereby further exploring the underlying home country-related factors contributing to reshoring peculiarities. By using a dataset including 529 cross-industry reshoring projects developed by companies headquartered in five countries (i.e., US, Germany, UK, France, and Italy), the study shows that these projects differ in terms of industry, entry mode, firm size and motivations. Thus, reshoring turns out to be a phenomenon where each country has its own peculiarities. The research further sheds light on the possible institutional, cultural/cognitive and industry/resource-related factors underlying these specificities.This study contributes to both reshoring and international business literature by highlighting how reshoring differs across countries. It also provides policy and managerial implications, at a time when several governments are considering the economic and employment potential of this phenomenon.