Redistributive effects of the shift from personal income taxes to indirect taxes: Belgium 1988–93

Between 1988 and 1993, the Belgian personal income tax system and the indirect tax system were reformed to a considerable extent. We use microsimulation models to investigate the impact of the reform on the liability progression and the redistributive effect of the combined tax system. The redistributive effect of personal income taxes decreased, notwithstanding an increase in liability progression. For indirect taxes, both the liability regressivity and the reverse redistributive effect have been enhanced. We use recently developed statistical tests to gauge the significance of the observed changes.     

Money,activity and prices: Some inter-country evidence

The paper explores the relationships between monetary variables and real economic activity and prices in the six largest industrialized economies. Univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models are used to break down monetary policy variables into anticipated and unanticipated components. Overall monetary policy variables, particularly domestic credit expansion, appear to be significant leading indicators for subsequent real economic activity and prices. Additionally, anticipated components of monetary policy are shown to have as much forecasting ability for subsequently realized economic variables as unanticipated components. This does not appear to be consistent with the implications of pure rational expectations models. It was also noted that results differed significantly according to the choice of monetary variable and across individual countries. In particular the results implied no contradiction with previous findings for the impact of unanticipated money supply in the U.S., though such contradictions would have appeared if DCE had been used as the monetary variable.     

Can trade costs explain why exchange rate volatility does not feed into consumer prices?

If countries specialize in imperfectly substitutable goods, trade costs increase the share of expenditure devoted to domestic output, reducing the exposure of consumer price inflation to exchange rate changes. I present a multi-country flexible-price model where expenditure shares are inversely related to trade costs through a gravity equation. In this setting, consumer price inflation can be approximated as an expenditure-share-weighted average of the contributions to inflation from all countries. I use data from 24 OECD countries, 1970-2003, to estimate a structural gravity model. I combine the fitted expenditure shares from the estimation with actual data on exchange rates to construct predictions of inflation. The behavior of these predictions indicates that trade costs can explain both qualitatively and quantitatively the failure of exchange rate volatility to feed into inflation.     

From crinkly sheds to fashion parks: the role of financial investment in the transformation of retail parks

The retail park is one of the most ubiquitous and significant forms of off-centre retailing in the UK. Originally designed as low-cost accommodation for 'bulky goods', retail parks now include high-rent 'fashion parks' which are eagerly sought by institutional investors for long-term ownership. This paper explains why retail-park ownership, originating in the early 1980s in one-off schemes by locally based property developers, has become the province of major property companies, financial institutions, and asset managers. Growth in rents and capital values has been fuelled by increasing institutional investment, and by fears of a growing scarcity of high-quality developments because of town-planning restrictions. This pressure is now leading to attempts to realize the full capital value of older developments, through processes of 'active management' by the new breed of retail-park owners. In turn, this is leading to increasingly rapid changes of retail occupiers, involving in some cases the expulsion of the original 'bulky goods' retailers for whom retail parks were created. A parallel with the 'Wheel of Retailing' model of institutional change is suggested.     

International capital markets and open‐economy macroeconomics

Abstract

The standard open‐economy model on which the Bretton Woods macroeconomics is based takes into account neither the systemically fragmented nature of international capital markets nor the institutional relationship between savings and investment in semi‐industrial economies. This paper suggests that a more realistic approach to these structural features, possibly along the lines suggested by recent “new‐Keynesian” theories of market failure, would yield a model of macroeconomic behaviour which emphasizes investor uncertainty and vulnerability to external shock. The policy implications have interesting parallels with Keynes's own views on stabilization.     

A Gravity Model of Mortality Rates for Two Related Populations

Abstract

The mortality rate dynamics between two related but different-sized populations are modeled consistently using a new stochastic mortality model that we call the gravity model. The larger population is modeled independently, and the smaller population is modeled in terms of spreads (or deviations) relative to the evolution of the former, but the spreads in the period and cohort effects between the larger and smaller populations depend on gravity or spread reversion parameters for the two effects. The larger the two gravity parameters, the more strongly the smaller population’s mortality rates move in line with those of the larger population in the long run. This is important where it is believed that the mortality rates between related populations should not diverge over time on grounds of biological reasonableness. The model is illustrated using an extension of the Age-Period-Cohort model and mortality rate data for English and Welsh males representing a large population and the Continuous Mortality Investigation assured male lives representing a smaller related population.     

Response style behavior: question format dependent or personal style?

In survey research, acquiescence response style/set (ARS) and extreme response style/set (ERS) may distort the measurement of attitudes. How response bias is evoked is still subject of research. A key question is whether it may be evoked by external factors (e.g. test conditions or fatigue) or whether it could be the result of internal factors (e.g. personality or social characteristics). In the first part of this study we explore whether scale length—the manipulated test condition—influences the occurrence of ERS and/or ARS, by varying scale length from 5 till 11 categories. In pursuit of this we apply a latent class factor model that allows for diagnosing and correcting for ERS and ARS simultaneously. Results show that ERS occurs regardless of scale length. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence of ARS. In a second step we check whether ERS might reflect an internal personal style by (a) linking it to external measures of ERS, and by (b) correlating it with a personality profile and socio-demographic characteristics. Results show that ERS is reasonably stable over questionnaires and that it is associated with the selected personality profile and age.     

The surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a correlated risk process

This paper presents an explicit characterization for the joint probability density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin for a general risk process, which includes the Sparre-Andersen risk model with phase-type inter-claim times and claim sizes. The model can also accommodate a Markovian arrival process which enables claim sizes to be correlated with the inter-claim times. The marginal density function of the surplus immediately prior to ruin is specifically considered. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of this result.     

The holiday and Yom Kippur War sentiment effects: the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE)

Several empirical studies reveal that holidays generally create positive sentiment in the stock market, whereas negative events, such as wars or disasters, are accompanied by negative sentiment. However, what happens if a negative event occurs on a holiday? In such a case, we expect two conflicting sentiment effects, which may cancel one another out or, alternatively, one effect may dominate the other. The stock market in Israel provides a unique laboratory in which to test these two conflicting effects, as Israel faced a horrible war on the Yom Kippur holiday in 1973—a war whose influence is still strongly felt today. Indeed, we find two robust effects: A strong and significant positive holiday sentiment effect; and a negative war sentiment effect, which dominates the positive holiday effect. These results, which show how sentiment effects are created, are general and can easily be applied to other events and other markets when conflicting sentiment effects occur.