POLICY EVALUATION IN THE PRESENCE OF OUTSOURCING: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS VERSUS POLITICAL FEASIBILITY

We analyze the effects of outsourcing in the presence of a minimum wage by presenting a general-equilibrium model with an oligopolistic export sector and a competitive import-competing sector. An outsourcing tax is politically popular because it switches jobs to unemployed natives. It is also economically sound because it raises national income. An export subsidy may or may not be justified on welfare grounds. Increased international competition has no effect on the level of outsourcing, but the direction of its effect on unemployment and national income depends on the relative factor intensities of the two sectors.     

Contenu en information des renseignements relatifs aux bénéfices au coût d'origine et aux gisements présentés par les sociétés pétrolières et gazières canadiennes*

Résumé. L'auteur entend déterminer laquelle parmi trois possibilités de présentation de l'information relative aux gisements pétroliers et gaziers dans le rapport annuel—coûts d'origine capitalisés, quantités ou flux monétaires actualisés—a un contenu marginal en information, par rapport au bénéfice par action. Le contenu en information est défini comme étant la mesure dans laquelle l'option retenue pour présenter les gisements tient compte de l'évolution du prix des actions ordinaires. L'auteur a recours à l'analyse de régression multiple afin d'évaluer dans quelle mesure chacune des trois options de présentation de l'information relative aux gisements est indicative du rendement des actions ordinaires, compte tenu de l'information livrée par un indicateur du bénéfice par action. Il recueille dans les rapports annuels de 67 sociétés canadiennes d'exploration et de mise en valeur du pétrole et du gaz naturel l'information relative à chaque année de la période s'échelonnant de 1983 à 1987. Les résultats de l'étude prouvent que le bénéfice par action présente un certain contenu en information. Pour l'ensemble de la période de cinq ans, l'étude prouve également que les coûts capitalisés, les quantités des réserves et les flux monétaires actualisés présentent un contenu marginal en information; les résultats ne sont cependant pas constants lorsqu'on analyse une à une les années de la période, quelle que soit la forme de présentation utilisée.     

Hispanic consumer acculturation and food safety concerns

The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of Hispanic consumer acculturation on concerns about food safety and pesticide residues, and attitudes toward pesticide-related agricultural practices. Two 3-min bilingual, English and Spanish, videos presenting information on integrated pest management (IPM) farming practices were shown in controlled settings to Californian Hispanic consumers (n = 91). Findings reveal that acculturation among Hispanic consumers, language of use and length of residency in the United States, are significant factors associated with consumer concerns about the safety of domestic grown and imported produce at the supermarket. Overall, however the research suggests a substantial lack of information by Hispanic consumers regardless of level of acculturation. Pre- and post-video survey results show significant change in attitude among Hispanic consumers toward food safety, farming practices, and university efforts to help farmers control pests and assist with other management techniques. These findings suggest that bilingual educational programmes on food safety and the use of pesticides by farmers would be appropriate.     

Picking Winners? Investment Consultants’ Recommendations of Fund Managers

Investment consultants advise institutional investors on their choice of fund manager. Focusing on U.S. actively managed equity funds, we analyze the factors that drive consultants’ recommendations, what impact these recommendations have on flows, and how well the recommended funds perform. We find that investment consultants’ recommendations of funds are driven largely by soft factors, rather than the funds’ past performance, and that their recommendations have a significant effect on fund flows. However, we find no evidence that these recommendations add value, suggesting that the search for winners, encouraged and guided by investment consultants, is fruitless.     

Why Don't U.S. Issuers Demand European Fees for IPOs?

We compare fees charged by investment banks for conducting IPOs in the United States and Europe. In recent years, the “7% solution,” as documented by Chen and Ritter (2000) , has become even more prevalent in the United States, and is now the norm for IPOs raising up to $250 million. The same banks dominate both markets, but European IPO fees are roughly three percentage points lower, are much more variable, and have been falling. We review explanations for the gap in spreads and find the evidence consistent with strategic pricing. U.S. issuers could have saved over $1 billion a year by paying European fees.     

Racialised boundaries in tourism and travel: a case study of the UK black Caribbean community

Studies of tourism motivation and behaviour have not accounted significantly for the aspirations and experiences of ethnic minority groups living in metropolitan societies. This conceptual paper presents a case study of the UK black Caribbean community and seeks to indicate ways in which members of this community perceive places, spaces and destinations in Europe. Attention is directed to how black people’s perceptions and experiences are influenced and structured by the social conditions of racialism and racism. The discussion considers how the incursive nature of the white gaze, and popular representations and stereotypes of black societies and cultures, contribute to black people’s disengagement from ‘tourism experiences’. Racialised experiences and encounters call into question an individual’s right to adopt a tourist identity. As the discussion partly focuses on ways in which black visitors perceive ‘white others’, the work strongly implies that there is a fundamental need to remove the ‘white gaze’ as the only or dominant way to observe and make sense of the world. Given that this paper contributes to an understanding of how race relations are reproduced within tourism environments, it concludes with suggestions as to how future studies of ethnic minority tourism and travel might be conducted.     

Forecasting National Recessions Using State‐Level Data

We investigate whether there is information useful for identifying U.S. business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to forecast the National Bureau of Economic Research expansion and recession classification, we assess the incremental information content of state‐level employment growth over a commonly used set of national‐level predictors. As state‐level data adds a large number of predictors to the model, we employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure to construct forecasts. Based on a variety of forecast evaluation metrics, we find that including state‐level employment growth substantially improves nowcasts and very short‐horizon forecasts of the business cycle phase. The gains in forecast accuracy are concentrated during months of national recession.