中国省区工业产业专业化程度实证研究:1988～2002

本文通过构造产业地方专业化基尼系数,利用工业产业增加值数据,直接测算从1988年到2002年每个省区的工业产业专业化水平,发现我国省区产业结构出现了“两头高,中间低”的格局。根据各个省区十几年的地方专业化基尼系数的整体变化趋势,把省区划分为降低型、U型、增高型和大致不变型,并发现中西部的专业化程度提高,而东部大部分省区的产业结构经历了一个调整的过程,地方专业化基尼系数先降低,之后有些发达省份又有所提高。     

A股市场过度反应的新证据——基于A股和H股估值变化的视角

传统的检验市场过度反应的方法是采用De Bondt和Thaler构造的赢家组合和输家组合,通过检验赢家组合和输家组合的超额收益率来判断市场是否存在过度反应。有别于传统的检验市场过度反应的方法,本文基于我国股票市场上A股和H股估值变化的特殊视角,实证分析了我国A股市场存在的过度反应现象。     

从三因素模型看行为金融学

法玛和法兰奇三因素模型 1953,马科维兹(Markowitz)在一定的经济模型假设下得出了均值一方差的有效市场模型,并初步建立了CAPM的基础;后来,Sharpe(1964年)、Lintner(1965年)和Black(1972年)引入了表征每种证券风险的β值,并提出了著名的CAPM模型.在CAPM模型中,股票的收益率水平用其收益率的期望表示,而其风险则用β值表示.     

Luft zum Atmen

Mehr Sicherheit im Umgang mit Trachealkanülen - Pflegende, die Patienten mit einer Trachealkanüle betreuen, müssen den Kanülenwechsel sicher beherrschen. Denn bei Komplikationen kann das Warten auf den Arzt katastrophale Folgen haben. Daher muss der Umgang mit den Kanülen zur Routine werden.     

Not all trade restrictions are created equally

There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. This introduction has highlighted the importance of the entry/exit decision of firms in response to changes in trade barriers. However, it is typical in many of these models to use iceberg transport costs as a general form of trade barriers that can be interchangeable with ad valorem tariffs. I show that this is not always an appropriate conclusion. Specifically, I illustrate that profit for an exporter is more elastic in response to tariffs than iceberg transport costs, which affects the entry/exit decision of firms. This has implications for welfare analysis and empirical specifications.     

Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.