Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey

The currency denominations of a country's exports and imports are not necessarily the same. If this is the case, then a change in the exchange rate parity among major currencies will affect the trade balance. The empirical evidence provided from Turkey – where exports are mostly denominated in Euros and imports are mostly denominated in USD – suggests that an appreciation of the Euro against the USD would increase the output in the long-run, appreciate the local currency and improve the trade balance for the 1985:01 2003:07 period.     

Inflation expectations in Turkey: learning to be rational

Turkey implemented an ambitious restructuring of the economy in the past several years, including the adoption of inflation targeting along with a floating exchange rate regime. Inflation came down from almost triple digits to single digits between 2001 and 2005. This particular episode of the Turkish economy sets a genuine case study for investigating the possible changes in the behaviour of inflation expectations upon a regime shift. Accordingly, this study analyses inflation expectations in Turkey, focusing especially on the post-2001 transition phase. We first conduct classical tests of unbiasedness and efficiency using aggregate survey data between August 2001 and October 2007 to get a statistical benchmark for rationality; we find that classical tests reject full rationality hypothesis for all series except next month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expectations. Then, we carry out Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) estimates based on a Kalman filter to see how the coefficients in the classical test equations evolve over time. This framework allows us to see whether there is convergence to rationality in terms of unbiasedness and efficiency. We find that forecast performance has improved through time, as the coefficients on the test equations shows movement towards values implied by unbiasedness and efficiency hypotheses, supporting the learning hypothesis.     

Total factor productivity and macroeconomic instability

Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important component of growth for most countries. This article assesses the role of macroeconomic instability on TFP growth. We consider volatility in inflation, openness of an economy and financial market deepness as measures of macroeconomic instability. Empirical evidence provided from Turkey suggests that volatility of openness and financial market deepness reduce TFP growth, whereas volatility of inflation increases TFP growth.     

The Role of State‐Owned Enterprises in an Artificial Monopoly Market: The Case of Turkey

State‐owned enterprises (SOEs) benefit from many privileges based on their unique structure, their substantial capital, and their position in the economic system. Like all business corporations, they have no fixed duration, which makes them effectively immortal. In addition, they are adjuncts of the state, which enables them to survive in noncompetitive markets with little effort. Therefore, under today's ruthless global market conditions, SOEs engage in unfair competition with privately financed businesses. By relying on their identity as state operations, they do not follow the rules of the market—they define those rules. In addition to SOEs, which are direct arms of the state, some privately financed businesses dominate markets in which the state allows them to develop an artificial monopoly and thus increase their power day by day. These artificial monopolies distort market processes and create conditions that frequently give rise to corruption. This study examines the problems associated with monopolies, with a special emphasis on establishing more efficient market structures for SOEs in Turkey. The original mission of SOEs was to balance markets through regulation and to be transparent and accountable to the public. Simply striving to meet those criteria would go a long way toward preventing the abuse of power and unfair competition. In addition, SOEs and artificial monopoly markets distort public institutions by promoting rent‐seeking behavior that corrupts politics and blocks innovation from potential competitors. Privatization has been employed by international financial institutions in recent decades, but it has mostly transferred monopolies from the public sector to private owners, which has made the problem worse and done little to enhance competition. Establishing genuinely competitive economies will require a new political culture around the world.     

THE MISSING LINK BETWEEN INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND INTEREST RATES

In the literature, there is no consensus about the direction of the effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in the sources of the uncertainties and analyzes the effects of different types of inflation uncertainties on a set of interest rates for the UK within an interest rate rule framework. Three types of inflation uncertainties – impulse uncertainty, structural uncertainty and steady‐state uncertainty – are derived by using a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It is shown that the impulse uncertainty is positively and the structural uncertainty is negatively correlated with the interest rates. Moreover, these two uncertainties are important to explain short‐term interest rates for the period of inflation targeting era. However, this time, the impulse uncertainty is negatively and the structural uncertainty is positively correlated with the overnight interbank interest rates, which is consistent with the general characteristic of the inflation targeting regimes. Lastly, the evidence concerning the effect of the steady‐state inflation uncertainty on interest rates is not conclusive.     

Imputing continuous data under some non-Gaussian distributions

There has been a growing interest regarding generalized classes of distributions in statistical theory and practice because of their flexibility in model formation. Multiple imputation under such distributions that span a broader area in the symmetry–kurtosis plane appears to have the potential of better capturing real incomplete data trends. In this article, we impute continuous univariate data that exhibit varying characteristics under two well-known distributions, assess the extent to which this procedure works properly, make comparisons with normal imputation models in terms of commonly accepted bias and precision measures, and discuss possible generalizations to the multivariate case and to larger families of distributions.     

Success in soccer and economic performance: Evidence from beŞİktaŞ-Turkey

This paper investigates the connection between Turkish industrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş, which is a popular Turkish soccer team. The empirical evidence provided in the paper suggests that industrial production growth tends to increase with the success of Beşiktaş in European cups. Moreover, if the winnings are in displacement, the increase in industrial production is higher than if the winnings are in the home field. On the other hand, findings on the effects of domestic games on industrial performance are not statistically significant. All the views expressed in this paper belong to the authors and do not represent the views of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey or its staff. Beşiktaş, established in 1903, is one of the most popular soccer teams in Turkey. Detailed information about the team can be reached at http://www.besiktasjk.com     

Understanding interstate trade patterns

This paper models and estimates bilateral trade patterns of U.S. states in a CES framework and identifies the elasticity of substitution across goods, the elasticities of substitution across varieties of each good, and the good-specific elasticities of distance by using markup values obtained from the production side. Compared to the international trade literature, the elasticity of substitution estimates are lower across both goods and varieties, while the elasticity of distance estimates are higher. Although home-bias effects at the state level are significant, there is evidence for decreasing effects over time.     

Geographical dispersion of consumer search behaviour

This article investigates whether consumer search behaviour differs across zip codes within the U.S. As an application, daily gasoline price data covering virtually all gas stations within the U.S. are employed to estimate the distribution of search costs in each zip code. The results show that there are significant differences across zip codes regarding the expected number of searches achieved before consumers purchase gasoline. In order to have a systematic explanation, such differences are further connected to geographic, demographic, and economic conditions of the zip codes in a secondary analysis. The corresponding results imply several strategies for gas stations in order to maximize profits/markups; suggestions follow for policy makers and regulators to reduce redistributive effects of information barriers across locations.     

Risk Management Strategies in Transportation Capacity Decisions: An Analytical Approach

In recent years, access to freight transportation capacity has become a constant issue in the minds of logistics managers due to capacity shortages. In a buyer–seller relationship, reliable, timely, and cost‐effective access to transportation is critical to the success of such partnerships. Given this, guaranteed capacity contracts with third‐party logistics providers (3PLs) may be appealing to shippers to increase their access to capacity and respond effectively to customer requirements. With this new opportunity, 3PLs must focus on approaches that can assist them in analyzing their options as they promise guaranteed capacity to shippers when faced with uncertain demand and related risks in transportation. In this paper, we analytically analyze three capacity‐based risk mitigation strategies and the mixed use of these individual strategies using industry‐based data to provide insights on which strategy is preferable to the 3PL and under what conditions. We posit that the selection of a strategy is contingent on several conditions faced by both the shipper and the carrier. Although our approach is analytical in nature, it has a high degree of practical utility in that a 3PL can utilize our decision models to effectively analyze and visualize the trade‐offs between the different strategies by considering appropriate cost and demand data.