Monetary policy and long-term US interest rates

This paper assesses the effect of federal funds rate innovations on longer-term US nominal interest rates across different periods. The evidence suggests that these responses change with changes in the monetary policy regime. Time periods considered are pre- and post-1979 and different Federal Reserve Chairman’s tenure. The response of longer-term interest rates to federal funds rate innovations are shown to be smaller and less persistent in the post-1979 period when the Federal Reserve placed more emphasis on inflation.     

Bilateral versus Multilateral Free Trade Agreements: A Welfare Analysis

Why is a proliferation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) between certain types of countries observed instead of progress in attaining global free trade through a multilateral FTA? This paper answers this question by exploring the enforceability of different types of FTAs through comparing minimum discount factors that are necessary to sustain them in an infinitely repeated game framework. The authors search for the globally welfare maximizing trade agreements that are sustainable under different conditions. The results depict that transportation costs, differences in country sizes and comparative advantages are all obstacles for having a multilateral FTA. Accordingly, international development policies conducted for the removal of such obstacles should be the main goal toward achieving a multilateral FTA, which is shown to be the first‐best solution to the maximization problem of global welfare.     

Manifest anxiety,general self-efficacy and locus of control as determinants of personal and general risk perception

The hypothesis that risk perception is associated with differences in personality was proposed. Three personality variables were used, Rotter's Internal vs External Locus of Control Scale, Schwarzer's General Self-efficacy Scale and Taylor's Manifest Anxiety Scale. A scale asking for personal and general risk perception measured perceived risk. It was proposed that individuals low in anxiety, having an internal locus of control and high in self-efficacy should perceive general risks and personal risks higher than individuals high in anxiety and low in self-efficacy and having external locus of control should do. Fifty-nine business students responded to these three scales. The hypothesis was supported by the results and suggested that the personality measures and particularly anxiety were significantly associated to both personal and general risk perceptions.     

Monetary policy and U.S. long-term interest rates: How close are the linkages?

The effect of monetary policy on long-term interest rates has been a question of interest in recent years. A number of papers, relying on single-equation estimation techniques, have presented evidence that long-term interest rates exhibit sizable and significant responses to unanticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate. This paper examines these findings in light of conflicting findings from VAR studies, which indicate negligible effects of innovations in the federal funds rate on long-term rates. To address the issue we use a single-equation approach where unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate are measured as residuals from policy reaction functions. We also estimate VAR specifications, which incorporate information about the timing of changes in the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate. Our single-equation estimates provide evidence of strong responses of long rates to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate both for the Greenspan period and for a longer period back to the mid-1960s. It seems likely that estimated VARs for the post-1987 years are less successful in isolating monetary policy surprises than was the case for earlier years.     

Openness and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Cross-country Analysis

Abstract

This paper evaluates the relationship between a country's openness to trade and the effectiveness of monetary policy in changing output growth and inflation in 29 different countries. Using quarterly data from the 1957–2003 period, empirical estimates based on individual country specifications show that the direction, significance and nature of the relationship between openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy on output growth as well as inflation vary considerably across countries.     

Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model

This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987–2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhlig's (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main macroeconomic variables to identify monetary shock. This study finds that expansionary monetary policy stimulates output through consumption and investment in the short-run. However, expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in the long-run.     

Patterns of alignment in alliance structure and innovation

Alliances are becoming an increasingly common strategy for product development despite the intrinsic tension between alliance logic and innovation logic. This paper investigates the development of alliance structures during the exploration phase of the innovation process. Based on a study of five service development alliances in the telecom industry, three patterns are identified by which the alliance structure and the innovation are brought into alignment. Such alignment seems to be a necessary condition for the transition into commercialization. The patterns identified are: (1) Learning about the innovation may trigger changes in the alliance structure; (2) Learning about the innovation may suggest changes in the alliance structure that are impossible to implement, however, thus triggering changes in the innovation; (3) Planning the future alliance structure may suggest changes in the innovation. Based on these patterns, some conclusions and implications are identified, for both theory and practice.     

The Economics of Software Development by Pair Programmers

Evidence suggests that pair programmers–two programmers working collaboratively on the same design, algorithm, code, or test–perform substantially better than the two would working alone. Improved quality, teamwork, communication, knowledge management, and morale have been among the reported benefits of pair programming. This paper presents a comparative economic evaluation that strengthens the case for pair programming. The evaluation builds on the quantitative results of an empirical study conducted at the University of Utah. The evaluation is performed by interpreting these findings in the context of two different, idealized models of value realization. In the first model, consistent with the traditional waterfall process of software development, code produced by a development team is deployed in a single increment; its value is not realized until the full project completion. In the second model, consistent with agile software development processes such as Extreme Programming, code is produced and delivered in small increments; thus its value is realized in an equally incremental fashion. Under both models, our analysis demonstrates a distinct economic advantage of pair programmers over solo programmers. Based on these preliminary results, we recommend that organizations engaged in software development consider adopting pair programming as a practice that could improve their bottom line. To be able to perform quantitative analyses, several simplifying assumptions had to be made regarding alternative models of software development, the costs and benefits associated with these models, and how these costs and benefits are recognized. The implications of these assumptions are addressed in the paper.     

EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary.