The Education of a Technology Policy Analyst—to Process Management

Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision tree. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including ‘do nothing’) that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysts, to run processes that engage stakeholders. We illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case.     

Improving new technology venture performance under direct and indirect network externality conditions

This study compares the effectiveness of five responses to external uncertainty in markets with network externalities: avoidance, imitation, control, cooperation, and real options reasoning as a form of strategic flexibility. Our analysis of 385 new technology ventures shows that direct and indirect network externalities have opposite effects on the effectiveness of these strategies. Moreover, under network externalities, attempts to make ventures less dependent upon environmental instabilities perform differently compared to attempts to control the environment. Finally, we show that real options reasoning does not always perform better under conditions of higher uncertainty, such as uncertainty due to direct network externalities.     

A model of audience choice of local TV news program

This paper presents and validates a model of audience choice of local TV evening news programs. The model is derived from a model of individual viewer choice behavior that specifies a viewer's probability of choosing a particular news program as a function of the viewer's relative preference toward that program. The audience model is operationalized using a multinomial logit model. This specification is estimated and found to perform well. Implications of the model for management of TV stations and advertisers are discussed.     

Optimal dealer pricing under transactions and return uncertainty

The paper examines the optimal behavior of a single dealer who is faced with a stochastic demand to trade (modeled by a continuous time Poisson jump process) and facing return risk on his stock and on the rest of his portfolio (modeled by diffusion processes). Using stochastic dynamic programming, we derive the optimal bid and ask prices that maximize the dealer's expected utility of terminal wealth as a function of the state in which he finds himself. The relationship of the bid and ask prices to inventory of the dealer, instantaneous variance of return, stochastic arrival of transactions and other variables is examined.     

The Impact of Market Experience Upon Appraisers' Energy Awareness*

This article explores the notion that appraisers respond to a very rapid change in any factor that will ultimately affect real estate values only after they witness the effects of this change in actual marketplace transactions. An analysis of 685 responses to a recent national appraiser survey suggests that a cause and effect relationship exists between their energy related market experiences and their energy awareness level. Market imperfections and the difficulty of predicting future energy prices are identified as barriers that inhibit the appraisers' ability to achieve a high level of energy awareness.     

EVALUATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE*

This article evaluates the distribution of public expenditure on subsidized goods and services over income categories. It is argued that undifferentiated application of usual measures of dispersion must be rejected when judging the distribution of these expenditures, because there are hardly any subsidized goods and services for which the government aims at equal consumption. Such an application requires a normative distribution of expenditure. The normative distribution of expenditure is derived from a normative distribution of consumption and the distribution of normative charges. Central elements are needs of consumers and their financial capacity. The normative distribution of consumption is based on government intentions with respect to the goods and services under consideration.     

White,black, and green multipliers: Effects of white,black, and green sector activities on the economy and on the development of consumer services

The effects of production and consumption in the informal sectors, i.e., the black sector (illegal because of tax evasion) and the green (household) sector, are described by a macro model. Effects upon employment, balance of payments, and public deficit are considered. Empirical implementation with Danish data shows that the black and green sectors have negligible effects on the government deficit, and that activities in the green sector are much more harmful to white employment and the balance of payments than are activities in the black sector. The results indicate that formal and informal production of services — the major part of the black and green sectors — could be increased without much damage to the balance of payments and the government deficit. Whether such an increase of service production would also solve the social problems related to unemployment is more debatable, since many service jobs are likely to be considered by the public as unproductive uses of labour.

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Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen von Produktion und Verbrauch im informellen Sektor, also im schwarzen Sektor (Schattenwirtschaft, die wegen Steuerhinterziehung illegal ist) und im grünen Sektor (private Haushalte) werden anhand eines Makromodells beschrieben. Die Wirkungen auf die Beschäftigung, auf das Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht und auf die Staatsverschuldung stehen dabei im Mittelpunkt. Die empirische Analyse anhand dänischer Daten macht deutlich, daß der schwarze und der grüne Sektor zu vernachlässigende Auswirkungen auf das Haushaltsdefizit haben, sowie, daß Aktivitäten des grünen Sektors der Vollbeschäftigung und dem Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht im weißen Sektor weitaus mehr schaden als Aktivitäten des schwarzen Sektors.Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die formelle und informelle Produktion von Dienstleistungen — Hauptbestandteil des schwarzen und grünen Sektors — ohne größeren Schaden für die Zahlungsbilanz und für das Haushaltsdefizit ausgeweitet werden könnten. Ob ein derartiger Anstieg der Dienstleistungsproduktion die mit der Arbeitslosigkeit verbundenen sozialen Probleme lösen könnte, ist fraglich. Denn die Öffentlichkeit neigt dazu, viele Dienstleistungen als unproduktive Verwendung von Arbeitskraft anzusehen.

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Hans Aage is an associate professor at the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestræde 6, DK-1455 Copenhagen K, Denmark.