Censored latent effects autoregression,with an application to US unemployment

A model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment time series data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, correspond with unobserved positive shocks. The generating mechanism of these latent shocks is a censored regression model, where linear combinations of lagged explanatory variables lead to positive shocks, while otherwise shocks are equal to zero. We apply this censored latent effects autoregression to monthly US unemployment, where the positive shocks are found to be predictable using various leading indicators. The model fits the data well and its out‐of‐sample forecasts appear to improve on those from alternative models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vorbemerkung

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Tax systems and direct mechanisms in large finite economies

The equivalence of anonymous direct mechanisms and tax systems for continuum economies, which has been demonstrated by Hammond (1979) and Guesnerie (1981), is shown to have its counterparts in large finite economies.We are deeply indebted to Roger Guesnerie for stimulating our interest in this problem and for the inspiration gained through his work.     

We Ran One Regression*

The controversy over the selection of ‘growth regressions’ was precipitated by some remarkably numerous ‘estimation’ strategies, including two million regressions by Sala‐i‐Martin [American Economic Review (1997b) Vol. 87, pp. 178–183]. Only one regression is really needed, namely the general unrestricted model, appropriately reduced to a parsimonious encompassing, congruent representation. We corroborate the findings of Hoover and Perez [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2004) Vol. 66], who also adopt an automatic general‐to‐simple approach, despite the complications of data imputation. Such an outcome was also achieved in just one run of PcGets, within a few minutes of receiving the data set in Fernández, Ley and Steel [Journal of Applied Econometrics (2001) Vol. 16, pp. 563–576] from Professor Ley.     

Aid and donor countries’ GNP

The authors try to test statistically whether the flow of resources between poor and rich countries has in fact conformed to the “1 per cent” target defined by the United Nations. Basis for testing several hypotheses are data published by the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD.     

Consumer policy in Co-op Denmark as perceived by the member representatives

One important prerequisite for consumer cooperatives to function as consumer welfare organizations must be that the member representatives wish to direct the whole organization towards consumer welfare by means of an active consumer policy. They must perceive themselves as so-called central partners in the organization, and they should use the consumer programme as a parameter of strategic consumer action. However, analysis of the present consumer programme in Co-op Denmark and the works leading up to it indicates that this might not really hold true. An interview study was therefore carried out among selected member representatives in order to throw light on the attitudes to an active co-operative consumer policy. This study shows that the present consumer programme does not aim at establishing or maintaining consumer welfare as the ultimate yardstick for co-operative action, and that member representatives do not want to direct Co-op Denmark towards any precise goals. Cooperative consumer policy should by no means restrict the freedom of choice of its business administration in achieving primarily economic goals.

---

Die Verbraucherpolitik von Co-op Dänemark in der Wahrnehmung der Mitgliedsvertreter

Zusammenfassung Wenn Verbrauchergenossenschaften Organisationen zur Hebung der Verbraucherwohlfahrt sein sollen, so besteht eine wichtige Voraussetzung dazu in dem Willen der Mitgliedsvertreter, die gesamte Organisation mit Hilfe einer aktiven Verbraucherpolitik auf die Wohlfahrt der Verbraucher hin auszurichten. Die Mitgliedsvertreter müssen sich selbst als sogenannte zentrale Partner in der Organisation verstehen, und sie sollten das Verbraucherprogramm als einen Parameter für strategische Verbraucheraktionen nutzen.Eine Analyse des gegenwärtigen Verbraucherprogramms von Co-op Dänemark und der vorbereitenden Arbeiten zeigt jedoch, daß diese Voraussetzung in Wirklichkeit nicht erfüllt sein dürfte. Deshalb wurde bei ausgewählten Mitgliedsvertretern eine Interview-Studie durchgeführt, um deren Einstellungen zu einer aktiven genossenschaftlichen Verbraucherpolitik zu ermitteln. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß das gegenwärtige Verbraucherprogramm nicht auf die Förderung der Verbraucherwohlfahrt als letztes Ziel abgestellt ist, und daß die Verbrauchervertreter ihre Genossenschaft überhaupt nich auf irgendwelche präzisen Ziele ausrichten möchten. Vielmehr solle genossenschaftliche Verbraucherpolitik eben nicht die Entscheidungsfreiheit des Genossenschaftsmanagements beim Erreichen von in erster Linie ökonomischen Zielen einengen.

---

---

Hans Rask Jensen is Associate Professor of Marketing at the Southern Denmark School of Economics and Business Administration, Grundtvigs Allé 150, DK-6400 Sønderborg, Denmark.