The wisdom of demagogues: institutions,corruption and support for authoritarian populists

This article analyses the drivers of support for authoritarian populist parties in Europe. Such parties claim to represent the interests of ordinary people against greedy and out‐of‐touch elites. Simultaneously, they reject conventional constraints on democratic policymaking. In recent years, such parties on the political left and right have been gaining influence in countries across Europe. Using a panel data set from 1980–2016, we use semiparametric Tobit models with country fixed effects to explain support for authoritarian populists. We find that large vote shares of right‐wing – but not left‐wing – authoritarian populists are associated closely to corruption. Other commonly cited explanations such as unemployment, inequality and immigration perform poorly in predicting support for populist political platforms on the political right. While a full theoretical explanation of the link between corruption and right‐wing populism remains beyond the scope of this article, we suggest that the mechanism involves political trust. Corruption weakens trust in political institutions, which populists exploit. Curbing the rise of right‐wing authoritarian populism in Europe will thus require restoring trust in the integrity of politics.     

Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany

Germany has experienced a period of extreme nominal and real wage moderation since the mid‐1990s. Contrary to the expectations of liberal economists, this has failed to improve Germany’s mediocre economic performance. However, Germany is now running substantial current account surpluses. One possible explanation for Germany’s disappointing performance is found in Kaleckian theory, which highlights that the domestic demand effect of a decline in the wage share will typically be contractionary, whereas net exports will increase (Blecker 1989 Blecker, R. 1989. International competition, income distribution and economic growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 13: 395–412. [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). The size of the foreign demand effect will critically depend on the degree of openness of the economy. This paper aims at estimating empirically the demand side of a Bhaduri and Marglin (1990 Bhaduri, A. and Marglin, S. 1990. Unemployment and the real wage: The economic basis for contesting political ideologies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14: 375–93. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) type model for Germany. The paper builds on the estimation strategy of Stockhammer, Onaran, and Ederer (2009 Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö. and Ederer, S. 2009. Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(1): 139–59. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) and Hein and Vogel (2008 Hein, E. and Vogel, L. 2008. Distribution and growth reconsidered – empirical results for six OECD countries. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32: 479–511. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], 2009 Hein, E. and Vogel, L. 2009. Distribution and growth in France and Germany – single equation estimations and model simulations based on the Bhaduri/Marglin‐model. Review of Political Economy, 21(2): 245–72. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar]). The main contribution lies in a careful analysis of the effects of globalization. Since Germany is a large open economy by now it is a particularly interesting case study.     

Competition in the Rhine delta: waterways,railways and ports, 1870–1913

Rhine transport was not an absolute condition for German industrialization. Railways proved to be efficient, and in the 1840–1870 period were essential for the industrialization of the Ruhr area. The key questions addressed in this article are: why did inland navigation not disappear from the Rhine region (as it did elsewhere), even recovering after the 1870s? And why did it have an unassailable competitive advantage from the 1890s onwards? Political developments leading to the liberalization of Rhine shipping and the canalization of the river created the opportunity to increase the scale of shipping. This gave it competitive advantages when it came to bulk transport. This article uses new data on freight rates in the Rhine delta to demonstrate the course of Rhine competitiveness. Furthermore, it identifies the institutional conditions, and the technological and organizational improvements, that were the basis of this growing competitiveness. The conclusion is that the element of German international trade that went by the Rhine correlated with the cost of Rhine shipping when compared to that of railway transport. As a consequence of the recovery of Rhine shipping, the port of Rotterdam became stronger than its Belgian neighbour, Antwerp.     

ON THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION—A COMMENT ON SASAKI AND FUJITA (2012)

In a paper published in Metroeconomica, Sasaki and Fujita (2012) argue that an earlier paper of mine (Hein, 2007 ; Metroeconomica, 57, pp. 310–39), which introduces interest payments and corporate debt into a post‐Kaleckian distribution and growth model, leads to empirically implausible and unusual results from a Keynesian/Kaleckian perspective. The major reason for the presumed shortcomings is found in the overly restrictive assumption of a retention ratio equal to unity. However, in the alternative model presented by Sasaki and Fujita either perfect capital gains have to be assumed or firms have to be allowed to issue equity in the accumulation process. The latter variant yields results which are again close to Hein ( 2007 ).     

An application of von Thünen's model of agricultural location

Based on quantitative and qualitative fieldwork, this paper analyses how internal and international out-migration of men has affected the position of women left behind in a rural area in southern Morocco. The results generally refute the hypothesis that migration changes gender roles. Although international migration and remittances enable women and their families to live more comfortable and secure lives, internal migration often coincides with increasing workloads and uncertainty. Although their husbands' migration leads to a temporary increase in the tasks and responsibilities of women, this new role is generally perceived as a burden and should therefore not be equated with emancipation in the meaning of making independent choices against prevailing gender norms. In a classical “patriarchal bargain”, women prefer to avoid overt rule-breaking in order to secure their social position. Significant improvements in the position of rural women are primarily the result of general social and cultural change, although migration might have played an indirect, accelerating role in these processes.     

Predicting the money multiplier: Forecasts from component and aggregate models

This paper compares the relative abilities of two money multiplier forecasting procedures. The components method models and forecasts the multiplier's individual ratios. The second procedure is simply to model and forecast the aggregate multiplier itself. It has been suggested, though untested, that the components approach is more accurate in forecasting, because it accounts for certain ratio-specific changes that are masked in the aggregate model. The evidence presented here, based on forecasts of the MI multiplier for the period January 1980 through December 1982, indicates that the aggregate model forecasts the multiplier as well as the component procedure.