STATE DEPENDENT PRICING AND BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRIES*

We present a tractable, dynamic general equilibrium model of state‐dependent pricing and study the response of output and prices to monetary policy shocks. We find important nonlinearities in these responses. For empirically relevant shocks, this generates substantially different predictions from time‐dependent pricing. We also find a distinct asymmetry with state‐dependent pricing: Prices respond more to positive shocks than they do to negative shocks. This is due to a strategic linkage between firms in the incentive for price adjustment. Our state‐dependent model can account for business cycle asymmetries in output of the magnitude found in empirical studies.     

Reviews

“THE POLL TAX” Flannery, Kate, 1987: More than Just a Poll Tax. Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £5.00. MacGregor, Susanne, 1988: The Poll Tax and the Enterprise Culture. Manchester: Centre for Local Economic Strategies, £3.95.

“ECONOMIC THEORY AND THE LOCAL ECONOMY” Smith, D., 1987: The Rise and Fall of Monetarism: The Theory and Politics of an Economic Experiment. Penguin, £3.95.

Holland, S., 1987: The Market Economy: From Micro to Mesoeconomics and The Global Economy: From Meso to Macroeconomics, Weidenfeld, £12.95 each.

Green, F. and Sutcliffe, B., 1987: The Profit System: The Economics of Capitalism. Penguin, £5.95.

“THE SERVICES REVOLUTION?” Rajan, A., 1987: Services: The Second Industrial Revolution? London: Butterworths, £27.50.

“ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY IN EUROPE” Joyce, F. E. and Schneider, G. (editors), 1988: Environment and Economic Development in the Regions of the European Community. Aldershot: Avebury/Gower, £18.50 hb.

“POLITICS OF PRIVATISATION” Ascher, K., 1987: The Politics of Privatisation: Contracting Out Public Services. London: Macmillan Education Ltd. £30.00 cloth, £8.95 paper.

“RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING POLICY” Davies, T. and Mason, C., 1986: Shutting out the Inner City Worker. University of Bristol, School for Advanced Urban Studies, £4.30.

Chapman, P. G. and Tooze, M. J., 1987: The Youth Training Scheme in the United Kingdom. Avebury: Gower Publishing Company, £22.50.

“JOB GENERATION RESEARCH” Storey, D. J. and Johnson, S., 1987: Job Generation and Labour Market Change. London: Macmillan.     

Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity

I characterize time consistent equilibrium in an economy with price rigidity and an optimizing monetary authority operating under discretion. Firms have the option to increase their frequency of price change, at a cost, in response to higher inflation. Previous studies, which assume a constant degree of price rigidity across inflation regimes, find two time consistent equilibria—one with low inflation, the other with high inflation. In contrast, when price rigidity is endogenous, the high inflation equilibrium ceases to exist. Hence, time consistent equilibrium is unique. This result depends on two features of the analysis: (1) a plausible quantitative specification of the fixed cost of price change, and (2) the presence of an arbitrarily small cost of inflation that is independent of price rigidity.     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.