Complexity dynamics of nascent entrepreneurship

We  use theory and methods from complexity science to examine dynamic patterns among activities undertaken by nascent entrepreneurs in the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics. We develop hypotheses predicting that certain dynamic patterns in start-up activities will lead to the emergence of new firms when: (1) the rate of start-up activities is high, (2) start-up activities are spread out over time, and (3) start-up activities are concentrated later rather than earlier over time. All three hypotheses are confirmed. The paper concludes with some suggestions for the role of complexity science for furthering insights into the process of organization creation.     

Visa restrictions and their adverse economic and marketing implications – Evidence from China

Governments spend considerable public resources, including tax dollars, on marketing their cities or countries in order to become a strong brand attractive for exports, foreign direct investment and tourism. Ironically at the same time, self-imposed and strict visa regulations that can potentially hamper the productivity of marketing and branding are fairly common. There are valid reasons for imposing strict visa regulations, two of the most important being national and economic security. Although strict visa regulations are a common phenomenon around the world, the tourism academia have yet to argue against strict visa regulations by providing empirical evidence on their potential impact on tourism demand, and hence the economy. The current study is a pioneer attempt to generate awareness about the potential detrimental impacts of visa restrictions on a country’s economy, by using the case of People’s Republic of China, one of the countries known to have a history of strict visa regulations. The research reported in this paper was based on the standard tourism demand function, which models the causal relationship between tourism demand and a number of macroeconomic variables. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) was used since it has a dynamic specification that takes the time path of the tourist decision-making process into consideration by using both current and lagged values of variables. Results show the negative effect of visa regulations on both country-level and prefecture-level economies. Implications are discussed and recommendations provided.     

Climate Policy Under Uncertain and Heterogeneous Climate Damages

We highlight that uncertainty about climate damages and the fact that damages will be distributed heterogeneously across the global population can jointly be an argument for substantially stricter climate policy even if uncertainty and heterogeneity in isolation are not. The reason is that a given climate risk borne by fewer people implies greater welfare losses. However, these losses turn out to be significant only if society is both risk and inequality averse and if climate damages are highly heterogeneous. We discuss how insurance and self-insurance of climate risk could theoretically mitigate this joint effect of uncertainty and heterogeneity and thus admit weaker climate policy. Insurance provides more efficient risk sharing and self-insurance allows strongly impacted individuals to compensate damages by increasing savings. We first use a simple analytical model to introduce the different concepts and then provide more realistic results from the integrated assessment model DICE.     

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