The Subsystem—MFA: A Qualitative Method for Analyzing National Innovation Systems—The Case of Germany

The paper develops a method derived from the so-called minimal flow analysis (MFA), based on a subsystem approach, to find the characteristic technology flow structure of a national innovation system. The analysis uses input–output tables for Germany for the years 1980 and 1986, as well as innovation expenditure vectors, released by the Ifo-Institut, detailed for 58 sectors for the same years. The data are integrated into a subsystem approach and deliver a matrix of technology providers and technology users, which is analyzed by a suitably modified version of MFA. The results, differentiated according to rather economic vs more technical aspects, show what the German innovation system looks like and show that there was little change between 1980 and 1986.     

Central Bank Independence, Inflation Variability, and the Revenue Smoothing Hypothesis

This paper examines the revenue-smoothing hypothesis, which posits that an optimizing government will adjust both taxes and inflation to meet shocks to government spending. Our contribution is to examine this through the lens of a new methodology that relates both the first and second moments of inflation rates to central bank independence (CBI) measures. Unlike existing least-squares-based CBI papers, this study uses a maximum likelihood framework that facilitates the direct inclusion of CBI parameters in the residual covariance matrix. This new approach allows for a more intensive use of information contained in the CBI indexes and the estimates obtained are better reflective of CBI influences. Our results provide stronger evidence confirming the revenue-smoothing hypothesis, in particular for those countries with more independent central banks.     

哈佛商学院隐形冠军

在一次演讲中，有人问我：德国为什么能够成为全球最大的出口国之一？哪些企业贡献最大？我一时语塞，于是开始研究这个问题。     

The United Germany in The Single European Market

Dr Hermann von Richthofen, German Ambassador in London 1988–1993, now German Ambassador to NATO, spoke at the second LSE Business Performance Lecture on 29 January 1992 about the radical changes taking place in Europe. In particular, the Ambassador stressed that Germany's integration is an inseparable part of Europe's integration and will provide opportunities not only for Germany but also for the rest of Europe.     

Factors Affecting New Product Forecasting Accuracy in New Firms

This study identifies factors that seem to influence a new firm's ability to accurately forecast new product sales. William Gartner and Robert Thomas present a conceptual model and develop hypotheses that specify antecedent factors prior to new product launch, such as the founder's expertise and the marketing research methods used, as well as environmental factors occurring after product launch, such as competitive factors and market volatility, that influence new product forecasting accuracy. The hypotheses were tested with data collected from a survey of 113 new U.S. software firms. Some tentative guidelines for improving sales forecast accuracy among new firms are offered. Directions for future research are discussed.     

The crisis of development aid

Measured in per cent of their Gross National Product (GNP), western industrialised countries currently spend far less on development aid than they did ten years ago. This is partly due to the very limited usefulness of the prevailing concept of development aid.     

Social engineering in the third world

Success in economic development is normally measured in terms of growth rates in gross national product, with little attention given to the accompanying increase in employment. However, growth can be more or less labor absorbing depending upon the technology introduced during industrialization. In this article the author states the case for intermediate technology along with examples of its application.     

Variations in entrepreneurship

This article is written in the style of a “bildungsroman,” a fictional autobiographical “coming of age story” about the author’s experiences of his beginning to recognize the: great diversity of entrepreneurs, many types of startup firms, multiple ways entrepreneurs go about starting firms, and innumerable situations in which entrepreneurial activity takes place. In this remembrance of things past, the author realizes: the phenomenological underpinnings of his understanding of entrepreneurship, his belief in the primacy of facts as the arbiter of theory, that his theory predisposed him to look only for certain kinds of facts and ignore others which then makes theory paradoxically the arbiter of the facts found, and, finally, that knowledge is hard won and wisdom elusive. “Nothing is more uncertain, more contradictory, more unsatisfactory than the evidence of facts”—William Godwin