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11.
Economic sanctions are an important instrument of U.S. foreign policy. While politicians look favorably on unilateral economic sanctions as a policy instrument, many scholars attribute significant long-term economic costs to the United States and have doubts about their effectiveness. We outline a simple approach to assess the vulnerability of target countries to sanctions in order to develop focused sanctions and reduce unnecessary costs to U.S. business, avoid the imposition of sanctions on countries when sanctions are unlikely to have the desired effects, and determine what other countries must join the United States in imposing sanctions if they are to be effective.JEL Classification K330,F190 相似文献
12.
Reza EbrahimpourAuthor Vitae Hossein NikooAuthor VitaeSaeed MasoudniaAuthor Vitae Mohammad Reza YousefiAuthor VitaeMohammad Sajjad GhaemiAuthor Vitae 《International Journal of Forecasting》2011,27(3):804
A new method for forecasting the trend of time series, based on mixture of MLP experts, is presented. In this paper, three neural network combining methods and an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are applied to trend forecasting in the Tehran stock exchange. There are two experiments in this study. In experiment I, the time series data are the Kharg petrochemical company’s daily closing prices on the Tehran stock exchange. In this case study, which considers different schemes for forecasting the trend of the time series, the recognition rates are 75.97%, 77.13% and 81.64% for stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS, respectively. Using the mixture of MLP experts (ME) scheme, the recognition rate is strongly increased to 86.35%. A gain and loss analysis is also used, showing the relative forecasting success of the ME method with and without rejection criteria, compared to a simple buy and hold approach. In experiment II, the time series data are the daily closing prices of 37 companies on the Tehran stock exchange. This experiment is conducted to verify the results of experiment I and to show the efficiency of the ME method compared to stacked generalization, modified stacked generalization and ANFIS. 相似文献
13.
ABSTRACTWe develop a Manipulation Index (ManIx) that captures the potential manipulation intention of dealers during the World Markets/Reuters (WMR) benchmark (London Close) period at 4 pm London time through a unique algorithm and simulation. The application of this model (using a dataset with dealers’ identities) can identify banks that are prone to potential manipulative behavior. The results concerning the identified banks are validated by the regulatory investigations. Implementation of this algorithm allows regulators better direct their limited resources towards more targeted in-depth investigation. 相似文献
14.
Conditions for Sustainable Optimal Economic Development 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Y. Hossein Farzin 《Review of Development Economics》2006,10(3):518-534
This paper shows that, for dynamic optimizing economies with different types of natural resource, environmental, and human‐made capital stocks, a necessary and sufficient condition for permanently sustaining an optimal utility/consumption level is the stationarity of the current‐value Hamiltonian. For economies whose development is not exogenously and directly affected by time (i.e., time‐autonomous economies), this stationarity condition generalizes Dixit et al.’s (1980 ) “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” rule of sustain‐ability, which in turn generalizes Solow‐Hartwick’s sustainability rule. For non‐autonomous economies, the stationarity condition is not generally fulfilled, and the current‐value Hamiltonian under (over) estimates the true welfare level by an amount equal to the discounted value of the net “pure time effect.” For the non‐autonomous case of a time‐dependent utility discount rate, a general condition on the discount rate function (of which the hyperbolic discount rate function is a special case) upholds the results obtained for autonomous cases. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies that promote both optimality and sustainability objectives. 相似文献
15.
16.
A new comparative statics formalism using generalized compensated derivatives is presented that, in contrast to existing methodologies, directly yields constraint‐free semidefiniteness results for any differentiable, constrained optimization problem. The formalism provides a natural and powerful method of constructing comparative statics results, free of constraints and unrestricted in scope. New results on envelope relations, invariance conditions, rank inequalities and non‐uniqueness are derived that greatly extend their utility and reach. The methodology is illustrated by deriving the comparative statics of multiple linear constraint utility maximization models and the principal‐agent problem with hidden actions, both highly nontrivial and hitherto unsolved problems. 相似文献
17.
In this article, the authors illustrate the use of Bloomberg for analyzing topics in macroeconomics and monetary policy in economics and finance courses. The hands-on experience that students gain from such a course has many benefits, including deeper learning and clearer understanding of data. The authors describe goals and learning objectives, then compare Bloomberg with Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). In addition, they provide examples of how to use Bloomberg in the classroom, describe how to have students perform sector analysis, show how Bloomberg tools are useful for analyzing monetary policy, discuss how to use Bloomberg to analyze the financial sector, and illustrate the platform’s use in a case study. 相似文献
18.
The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework. 相似文献
19.
The lack of knowledge of how resilience management supports enterprise system (ES) projects accounts for the failure of firms to leverage their investments in costly ES implementations. Using a structured-pragmatic-situational (SPS) case study research approach, this paper reports on an investigation into the resilience management of a large utility company as it implemented an ES upgrade. Drawing on the literature and on the case study findings, we developed a process-based resilience management framework that involves three strategies (developing situation awareness, demystifying threats, and executing restoration plans) and four organisational capabilities that transform resilience management concepts into practices. We identified the crucial phases of ES upgrade implementation and developed indicators for how different strategies and capabilities of resilience management can assist managers at different stages of an ES upgrade. This research advances the state of existing knowledge by providing specific and verifiable propositions for attaining a state of resilience, the knowledge being grounded in the empirical reality of a case study. Moreover, the framework offers ES practitioners a roadmap to better identify appropriate responses and levels of preparedness. 相似文献
20.
Naserizade Sareh S. Nikoo Mohammad Reza Montaseri Hossein Alizadeh Mohammad Reza 《Group Decision and Negotiation》2021,30(3):641-663
Group Decision and Negotiation - Water Distribution System (WDS) are strategic infrastructures in all countries. In recent decades, several optimization-based frameworks have been developed to... 相似文献