Money Pools in the Americas: The African Diaspora’s Legacy in the Social Economy

Money pools are ancient African traditions that speak to the functionality of getting things done by a historically oppressed group of people. The analysis for this study is based on 583 interviews in five Caribbean countries: Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana. African traditions of collectives reveal that Black people have long had money pools that focused on helping people thrive in commerce, including during the hard times of slavery and colonization. This research argues that throughout the Caribbean indigenous banking systems—with localized names such as susu, partner, meeting-turn, box-hand and sol—are long-standing ancient traditions that historically and currently are taking a bold stand against exclusionary financial systems. African-Caribbean people have an important legacy on the social economy through money pools. The ways in which persons of African descent organize in the social economy is vital to unravelling the market fundamentalist view that there is only a singular way to do business in society.     

“Big Man” politics in the social economy: a case study of microfinance in Kingston,Jamaica

Microfinance and its “reinvention as bankers-for-the-poor” to create financial inclusion has not been effective everywhere. The literature seems to suggest that the social economy and microfinance help marginalized business people; yet no one considers that political bias interferes with the social economy, making it hard for it to be just. The promise of micro-credit was to achieve a double bottom line: first, the financial sustainability of the lending institution itself, and second, the social benefit of providing loans to low-income business people. Yet, alternative pitches of a social economy to “help people” fail to analyze the embedded power dynamics within the social economy. In this case study in downtown Kingston, Jamaica, 233 small-business people who depend on development finance because of social exclusion now find that these targeted programs are intertwined in partisan, sometimes dangerous, politics. As a result, oppressed people opt out of micro-banking programs to resist “Big Man” politics – the politicians or gangsters attempting to control them. In this study of 307 interviews, I analyze the informal politics of Dons and politicians who misuse micro-credit for their own ends. I find that the coupling of class biases and clientelist practices in the social economy discourages eligible business people from taking micro-loans, and argue that the microfinance industry needs to pay close attention to this issue if it is to continue to help marginalized business people.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

A dynamic hazard-based system of equations of vehicle ownership with endogenous long-term decision factors incorporating group decision making

The transportation system affects all aspects of our daily lives including relatively long-term decisions on work and home location choice and automobile ownership decisions. The interdependency existing among these three decisions jointly influences household mobility and overall travel patterns. Therefore, a dynamic modeling framework that can account for the effects of interdependencies between vehicle transaction behavior and residential and job location choices is highly desirable. These decisions are made in the household level while individuals’ decisions influence the overall outcome; therefore, it is also important to incorporate a group decision making process within such modeling frameworks.This study introduces a dynamic model for vehicle ownership, residential mobility, and employment relocation timing decisions. These decisions are modeled at the individual level and then sequentially aggregated to the household level if it is required. A hazard-based system of equations is formulated and applied in which work location and residential location changes are included as endogenous variables in the vehicle transaction model while other important factors such as land-use and built environment variables, household dynamics, and individuals’ socio-demographics are also considered.     

Economic and sociopolitical determinants of exchange controls

The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of identifying factors that could presage the imposition of exchange controls. Two sets of variables are argued to contain pertinent information regarding the imposition of controls. One set is composed of 14 economic ratios related to the balance of payments and exchange rate; the other set is made up of 17 proxy measures of sociopolitical instability. The empirical analysis of exchange controls imposed by 13 governments during 1973–1983 shows that these variables have potential for predicting the imposition of exchange controls.