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41.
This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases. 相似文献
42.
This paper investigates the spillover effects from U.S. and regional stock markets on local stock markets in the Pacific Basin region and China. We also analyze if the spillover depends on countries’ financial and economic integration. We apply a stochastic volatility model with jumps in order to separate the spillover of extreme shocks from those of normal shocks. We find that the spillovers of both normal and extreme shocks are significant for almost all Asian countries except China. We also find that the time‐variation in stock market interdependence can largely be associated with economic integration. 相似文献
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44.
We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis. 相似文献
45.
Mohammad Hossein Rahmati Seyed Reza Yousefi 《The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance》2013,53(3):277-284
The main contribution of this paper is a simple theoretical framework and empirical estimations explaining the behavior of the manufacturers. The paper focuses on the frequently used methods of demand estimation for discrete choice models to analyze the Iranian automobile market. It shows how both major companies in Iran choose to produce lower quality products and why they still collusively charge high markups. Empirical estimations are based on Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) to predict marginal costs and markups. Estimation results also support the hypothesis that manufacturers are charging high markups. In addition, the counterfactual analysis carried out supports the view that both duopolist firms prefer to operate at lower quality rather than at higher quality production levels. They also collusively price their products. Furthermore, analyses are performed using the Multinomial Logit methodology to better understand the Iranian automobile market. Tastes of people with different genders and ages for some specific cars are explained, and the effects of population changes on auto demand are predicted. 相似文献
46.
The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of identifying factors that could presage the imposition of exchange controls. Two sets of variables are argued to contain pertinent information regarding the imposition of controls. One set is composed of 14 economic ratios related to the balance of payments and exchange rate; the other set is made up of 17 proxy measures of sociopolitical instability. The empirical analysis of exchange controls imposed by 13 governments during 1973–1983 shows that these variables have potential for predicting the imposition of exchange controls. 相似文献
47.
International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavioris examined using data for a large sample of industrial anddeveloping countries. Both time-series and crosssectional estimatesare obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offseton private saving of changes in public saving and (for developingcountries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth areimportant determinants of private saving rates, and that interestrates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects.Increases in per capita gross domestic product seem to increasesaving at low income levels (relative to the United States)but decrease it at higher ones. 相似文献
48.
Hossein Emamalizadeh 《Journal of Business Ethics》1985,4(2):151-153
This paper argues that the informative and persuasive dichotomy of advertising is an empty concept. All advertising messages perform only one function and that function is to persuade. It is pointed out that in a moral appraisal of an advertising message, a distinction between rational and irrational persuasion can be made. Rational persuasion is consistent with the autonomy of the consumer and hence moral. Some forms of irrational persuasion may have an adverse effect on consumer autonomy and, therefore, should be viewed as immoral.
Hossein Emamalizadeh is Assistant Professor of Marketing at the Ball State University. His latest publications are Bait-and-Switch Advertising: A Conceptual Approach, and The Spatial Location of Banking Facilities in Central Business Districts of Nine Major Cities of the United States, both published by the Academy of Marketing Science in 1983. 相似文献
49.
Rui Menezes Andreia Dionísio Hossein Hassani 《The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance》2012,52(4):369-384
This paper analyzes stock market relationships among the G7 countries between 1973 and 2009 using three different approaches: (i) a linear approach based on cointegration, Vector Error Correction (VECM) and Granger Causality; (ii) a nonlinear approach based on Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient; and (iii) a nonlinear approach based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). While the cointegration tests are based on regression models and capture linearities in the data, Mutual Information and Singular Spectrum Analysis capture nonlinear relationships in a non-parametric way. The framework of this paper is based on the notion of market integration and uses stock market correlations and linkages both in price levels and returns. The main results show that significant co-movements occur among most of the G7 countries over the period analyzed and that Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient actually seem to provide more information about the market relationships than the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality. However, unlike the latter, the direction of causality is difficult to distinguish in Mutual Information and the Global Correlation Coefficient. In this respect, the nonlinear Singular Spectrum Analysis technique displays several advantages, since it enabled us to capture nonlinear causality in both directions, while Granger Causality only captures causality in a linear way. The results also show that stock markets are closely linked both in terms of price levels and returns (as well as lagged returns) over the 36 years analyzed. 相似文献
50.