Forecasting ultimate resource recovery

This paper considers Hubbert's model for forecasting ultimate resource recovery and its extensions by Kaufmann (1991, Resources and Energy 13, 111–127) and Cleveland and Kaufmann (1991, Energy Journal 12, 17–46). The emphasis of the paper is on econometric and forecasting issues, and it discusses alternative methods of estimating Hubbert's model. Using data on oil production in the U.S. lower 48 states, the paper reports the results of estimating the various specifications of the model and its extensions by the maximum-likelihood method, and provides the implied estimates for ultimate resource recovery and their associated standard errors. When economic factors are taken into account the estimates of ultimate resource recovery become state-dependent, and we find that in this case the estimates are higher than those obtained from the various specifications of Hubbert's original model. Although the accuracy of the estimates of ultimate recoverable reserves cannot be evaluated before oil reserves are actually exhausted, we examine how the various models estimated over the periods 1926–1985 and 1948–1985 perform in predicting oil production over the 1986–1990 period.     

Dispersion of Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Noisy Aggregation of Information

This paper discusses the determinants of the dispersion of beliefs of informed investors and the effects of this dispersion on the equilibrium level of asset prices in a noisy rational expectations model. It is shown that lower asset prices are usually associated with an increase in the dispersion of beliefs. However, when the noise level of private signals is high, or when asset prices are abnormally high, increased dispersion of beliefs will be associated with higher asset prices. This paper shows that the dispersion of beliefs is an increasing function of the standard deviations of an asset's payoff and the noise in the asset's supply, while it may be a decreasing or an increasing function of the standard deviation of errors in private signals.     

The effect of performance feedback on prior budgetary participative research using survey methodology: An empirical study

Prior research examining the relation between budgetary participation and job performance explicitly or implicitly posits budgetary participation and intervening variables such as role ambiguity, motivation, job satisfaction, and job-relevant information as independent variables; job performance as the dependent variable. However, these studies are often based on correlated data in which the direction of causation is unknown. This paper uses attribution theory to examine whether job performance affects perceptions of budgetary participation and/or intervening variables (e.g. role ambiguity). Using a laboratory experiment and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), the findings of this study show that knowledge of performance, obtained through performance evaluations and/or external cues, affects individuals’ perceptions regarding budgetary participation, job satisfaction, role ambiguity, motivation, and job-relevant information. The results of the study may undermine correlations between self-reported data on individual characteristics (e.g. motivation) and performance data, as well as correlations between self-reported data on organizational variables (e.g. budgetary participation) and performance data. The study provides suggestions how researchers could overcome problems associated with causal directions in future budget participation studies that link self-reported individual and organizational characteristics to job performance.     

The Determinants of the Secondary Market Price of Less Developed Countries’ Debt

A present-value model of less developed countries’ (LDC) debt is developed to understand the factors that affect the discount on the secondary market. LDC debt trades at a substantial discount on the secondary market. This paper investigates the determinants of the discount for a sample of 13 countries over a 9 year period. The findings show that debt–exports, foreign currency reserves–imports and total debt service to exports ratios are significant determinants of the secondary market prices of LDC debt. The discount is higher in countries where debt–exports ratios are higher and is lower for those with lower foreign currency reserves–imports ratios. Concentration of debt with money center banks has a positive and significant effect on the secondary market price of debt.

Alternative Sustainability Criteria,Externalities, and Welfare in a Simple Agroecosystem Model: A Numerical Analysis

Using the numerical technique of value iteration, this paper imposes several sustainability constraints on a simple multi-sector agroecosystem model, and provides analysis of the costs tradeoffs of the product and externality is insufficient for intergenerationally equitable welfare paths, while sustaining a physical resource over time in the interests of equitability can result in a less equitable distribution of welfare across generations. Furthermore, a value sustainability constraint imposed on the social welfare maximization problem acts as a welfare transfer mechanism from the productive sector to the sector affected by the externality, but implies growth in profits for the productive sector and declining utility for the non-productive sector.     

Bid ask spread in a competitive market with institutions and order size

Large orders, particularly from institutions, are quite common these days and hence there is interest to know if institutional trading has any bearing on the price effect associated with large trades. Recent empirical studies contradict earlier evidence of negative price effect on selling large blocks and find no price effect associated with large trades. Existing theoretical framework suggests a monotonic and increasing adverse price effect for large trades, where the motivation for a large trade is private information. We model a trading system where pure information, information-liquidity, and pure liquidity traders trade small and large sizes. The pure information traders strategically choose an order size. Institutions trade only large sizes because of their low execution costs for large trades; they are information-liquidity traders whose ability to use an information signal to determine their trades is subject to a binding liquidity constraint. We show that in such a market a separating equilibrium where trade size is informative does not exist and hence there is no price effect for large trades. Trade size may be revealing only if there is a buy sell asymmetry (large buy size is not equal to large sell size) or the corresponding price effect is asymmetric (price effect due to a large buy is not equal to that of a large sell). Further for a pooling equilibrium to exist, where trade size is not informative, the width of the market denoted by the ratio of order size (large size/small size) needs to be small, while the shallowness (inverse depth) of the market denoted by the ratio between pure information and institutional trades and the information signal needs to be stronger (higher). Our results on bid and ask prices and spread confirm recent empirical evidence on price effect of large and institutional trades found in the literature.

Sourcing practices and boundaries of the firm in the financial services industry

We investigate sourcing decisions related to the back‐office operations of 108 processes used by financial services companies. Guided by the arguments of transaction cost economics and the resource‐based and knowledge‐based view of organizations, we hypothesize that service customization and volume represent two key drivers of a service company's sourcing decisions. The inherent uncertainty of service customization gives rise to the transaction cost risks of opportunism and holdups and thus favors insourcing. Moreover, the competency gained from performing high‐volume back‐office operations aligns with the tenets of the resource‐based view, which also favors insourcing. The empirical results corroborate these theoretical expectations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pro-tourism and anti-tourism community groups at a world heritage site in Turkey

This empirical study deepens our understating of support for sustainable tourism development (SSTD) from the perspectives of various community groups in Pamukkale, a world natural and cultural heritage inscribed on the UNESCO list. A quota sampling technique was used to survey the views of three communities: business, farmers, and the government. Occurrences of contrarian cases were checking using cross-tabulation analyses. Complexity theory and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), as an innovative approach, were applied to develop and test a configurational model for predicting both high and low SSTD scores for three community groups. The fsQCA results revealed that causal recipes for achieving pro-tourism behaviour are not simply mirror opposites of the conditions leading to anti-tourism behaviour. The complex configurational models indicating high/low SSTD were unique to each community group, indicating that a specified strategy must be developed for community-based tourism management. The evidence-of-fit validity of the measurement model and the predictive validity of the configurational model were provided. Support for the fsQCA results in the key tenets of complexity theory confirms that this theory explained the heterogeneity and complex interactions of SSTD antecedents well. The study outcomes provide a guideline for managing conditions to both increase SSTD and hinder SSTD negation for various community groups. The limitations and implications for further research are discussed.     

Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach

Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.