Estimation of the change point of a distribution based on the number of failed test items

This paper discusses the family of life distributions with failure rate functions which decrease initially until a change point and remain constant thereafter. The paper focuses on the estimation for the change point of the failure rate function. While point estimation of the change point of the failure rate function has been discussed by some authors, one can hardly find any existing work on the interval estimation of the change point. In this paper, a method for constructing approximate confidence intervals for the change point is proposed. The proposed approximate confidence intervals are based on the number of failed test items at or before a fixed inspection time. Received: September 1999     

Towards a cross-cultural framework of strategic international human resource control: the case of Taiwanese high-tech subsidiaries in the USA

Due to the growing expansion of newly emerging multinational companies (MNCs) in the USA market, it seems pertinent to explore how to manage their Western industrialized subsidiaries in terms of human resource management. This study combines the institutionalism, resource dependence perspective, and control theory to provide an integrative framework in an attempt to investigate the cross-cultural determinants of strategic international human resource control over MNCs' subsidiaries. By a qualitative analysis of 10 Taiwanese top high-tech manufacturing companies operating in the USA, our findings are as follow: In order to perform subsidiary's value-added activities, multinationals need to identify the value and capabilities need for these activities. At the same time, subsidiaries also need to compare the cultural advantage of the home country in terms of these activities. In addition, from the perspective of cross-cultural influence, input control is designed to respond to high integration and high adaptation; output control is executed in the case of low integration and high cultural adaptation; while behavioural control is used to respond to high integration and low adaptation, simultaneously in the case of low value of subsidiary's activities.     

信息时代党校教师要积极应对教育信息化的挑战

信息技术的飞速发展,引起了教学理论与实践的深刻变革,从而给党校教师的教育观念、教育地位、教学方式方法带来越来越深刻的影响。在教育信息化的环境下,党校教师必须直面新环境的挑战,积极采取相应的对策。     

河南农村受众广告接触行为对其消费观念的影响分析

本文以豫南C乡的农村受众为研究对象展开问卷调查，主要考察了农村受众广告接触频度、接触时间、种类偏好及广告媒介信任度对其消费观念的影响。研究发现，农村受众的广告媒介接触行为影响其消费观念，但具体到广告媒介接触的指标不同则影响不同，其中农村受众广告媒介接触时间压种类偏好显著影响其消费观念。     

桂林候寨220 kV变电所的基础处理

介绍桂林候寨220 kV变电所工程溶洞和土洞地基的处理措施及钻孔灌注桩的施工情况.     

Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand

This study provides a flexible and mathematically precise method for forecasting tourism demand from all five continents of the globe to Taiwan and with potential to assist tourism operators and government officials in improving their management planning and strategy. This investigation applied the Grey Envelop Prediction Model (GEPM) to predict international passenger arrivals to Taiwan. The analysis result shows monthly, seasonal and annual predictions. The prediction values of international tourist numbers can answer the practical needs of managers, owners, and government departments and help in operational and management strategy development. The contributions of this study is provides an effective method for forecasting number of international visitors, and the result provided the flexible, accurate, and efficient interval predicted values used by researchers, mangers and administrators for developing manpower, finance, marketing, and administrative decision-making schemes.     

A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures

Building on realized variance and bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency financial prices, we propose a simple reduced form framework for effectively incorporating intraday data into the modeling of daily return volatility. We decompose the total daily return variability into the continuous sample path variance, the variation arising from discontinuous jumps that occur during the trading day, as well as the overnight return variance. Our empirical results, based on long samples of high-frequency equity and bond futures returns, suggest that the dynamic dependencies in the daily continuous sample path variability are well described by an approximate long-memory HAR–GARCH model, while the overnight returns may be modeled by an augmented GARCH type structure. The dynamic dependencies in the non-parametrically identified significant jumps appear to be well described by the combination of an ACH model for the time-varying jump intensities coupled with a relatively simple log-linear structure for the jump sizes. Finally, we discuss how the resulting reduced form model structure for each of the three components may be used in the construction of out-of-sample forecasts for the total return volatility.     

欧美国家第二住宅政策及其对中国的启示

本文以欧美国家为例，通过建立制度环境、地方影响和第二住宅政策分析框架来说明第二住宅是在特定制度环境下的产物，并针对第二住宅的不同影响程度提出相应的政策，指出借鉴欧美国家的第二住宅政策必须要考虑制度环境的差异，以及地方影响程度的差异和政策作用机制。文章还分析了中国的制度环境和第二住宅的地方影响，以及现有政策的演变和存在的问题，提出了相应的政策建议。     

微博营销的奖励机制

Web2.0时代的消费者是在互动交流中建立起品牌体验,微博已成为企业新营销平台,微博营销的奖励机制是吸引并维持足够数量的粉丝的关键。微博营销奖励机制要注重情感主题、具有一定的挑战性和趣味性,并设置具有品牌特色的奖励。微博营销奖励机制的着力点在于产品造势、品牌使者、借势炒作、雪球推广和统一阵线。     

谈加强“信息系统知识”教育

本文提出了在工作人员中普及“信息系统知识”的必要性，并具体论证了培训的内容