A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study

The study of one's own business future is a distinctive element of a business strategy. Innovative companies are aware of weak signals coming from the periphery and of trends in their industry, and they monitor the coherence between weak signals and trends (the external perspective) and strategic direction (the internal perspective).The literature today does not provide well-framed and complete methodologies for assessing the coherence among trends, vision and products. Therefore, the authors propose a methodology called “the methodology of future coverage”, which measures how much the strategy oriented to the future effectively covers trends and megatrends. In other words, it helps to check the contents and the coherence of the firm' vision and products and those of the trends that will have relevance for the future of the industry, and this process supplies firms with supplementary information on how to improve. The authors tested this methodology and exemplified its use via the Eurotech case study, employing longitudinal analysis.The methodology can be useful as a tool for diagnosing the coherence between trends and company strategy. Moreover, from a dynamic point of view, it can be used as a tool to check on the company's progress in following up on trends by adapting its strategy over time. Finally, the methodology can be also used as a tool for cross-comparison of the “level of future orientation” among companies in the same industry.     

Technological evolution and interdependence in China's emerging biofuel industry

This study uses the European Patent Office worldwide patent database and applies two-stage interactive data collection methods to reveal the evolving technological interdependence for China's emerging biofuel industry. Three findings are excerpted from our empirical results. First, due to dominant patterns of business ownership, China's biofuel technology is seen as largely based on the evolutionary strength of the foodstuff and chemical fields. Second, China's biofuel technology development has evolved in the mode of ‘forward engineering’, led by Chinese universities rather than initiated by the public research institutes as in the experience of other East Asian latecomers. Third, our patent map and technology trajectory analyses illustrate that China's biofuel technology tends to be application-oriented and highly intertwined with the pharmaceutical industry since the 2000s, which evidences the development of biofuel industry as reciprocally reinforcing China's innovation capability deriving from its prominent chemical sector. By examining endogenous technology capability embedded in the national innovation capacity, this study uncovers public implications for other technology latecomers attempting to build an emerging industry while facing technology uncertainty in a transitional society.     

The unholy marriage? Integrating qualitative and quantitative information in Delphi processes

This study analyses the strengths, weaknesses and pitfalls encountered when combining qualitative and quantitative information in a Delphi process and when reporting the results as scenarios or images of the future. The paper draws material from seven Disaggregative Policy Delphi processes conducted in Finland in 1999-2008, in which the authors were researchers or advisors. The cases are analysed in terms of the level of integration and the ways to overcome the difficulties. A learning ‘community of practice’ was created by these afterthoughts and by organising an international conference workshop on the issue. Qualitative and quantitative material was holistically integrated in one case. In the other cases, solutions led to domination of one material type over another but even then the other material did give relevant points to scenario formation. Finally, we give recommendations for tackling the pitfalls: 1) balancing between qualitative and quantitative, 2) balancing between formal structure and questions raised in the process, 3) framing questions to discover alternative future states, 4) paying attention to panellists' style, 5) dealing with lack of data for comprehensive cluster analysis, 6) considering scenario consistency, 7) understanding manager's responsibility and, 8) understanding the epistemological aspects of Delphi data. We conclude that integrating qualitative and quantitative material by using mixed methods to form coherent scenarios is at the same time desirable, possible and difficult - making the ‘unholy marriage’ a worthy adventure.     

Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries

Whether or not a current account deficit sustainable has important implications for policy. If the current account deficits of a nation is sustainable, then it implies that the government should have no incentive to default on its international debt. In this article we examine whether or not the current account deficits for the OECD countries can be characterized by a unit root process with regime switching. The econometric methodology allows us to distinguish periods that are associated with unsustainable outcomes from those in which the intertemporal national long-run budget constraint (LRBC) holds. Among the main results, it is found that it is very likely that the LRBC will not hold for the Australia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, New Zealand, Portugal or Spain, thus signifying a red signal that the current account deficits observed during the period were probably not on a sustainable path.     

An Empirical Investigation of Dual Network Effects in Innovation Project Development

As innovation project developers advance their knowledge through more project experience, cross-project learning is likely to enhance project performance. Past research has demonstrated positive contributions of developer networking at the macro (project) level. However, the network effects at the micro (project property) level have not been studied as much. To address this gap, we apply a network model to examine which project properties (e.g., the project's operating system and topic) generate positive or negative network effects in addition to the macro network effect when developers engage in multiple projects. In this dual (developer and property) network model, we theorize that positive network effects take place because of cross-project learning and knowledge exchange, whereas negative network effects can also occur due to time constraints and cognitive overloading. In addition to such dual network effects, we also consider such project success predictors as spatial and temporal reach opportunities for project users (scope of translations and project age) and human resources availability (developer team size). Our empirical application using open source software (OSS) data demonstrates that the presented model can effectively integrate both the dual network effects and non-network variables as factors influencing the commercial success of OSS projects.     

Do Interruptions Pay off? Effects of Interruptive Ads on Consumers' Willingness to Pay

We present the results of a study designed to measure the impact of interruptive advertising on consumers' willingness to pay for products bearing the advertiser's brand. Subjects participating in a controlled experiment were exposed to ads that diverted their attention from a computer game they were testing. We measured subjects' willingness to pay for a good associated with the advertised brand. We found that the ads significantly lowered the willingness to pay for goods associated with the advertising brand. We do not find conclusive evidence that providing some level of user control over the appearance of ads mitigates the negative impact of ad interruption. Our results contribute to the research on the economic impact of advertising, and introduce a method of measuring actual (as opposed to self-reported) willingness to pay in experimental marketing research.     

Estimating JP Morgan Chase's Profits From the Madoff Deposits

JP Morgan Chase had deposits from Bernard L. Madoff's investors totaling $5.5 billion at one point in 2008. The Chase account was supposedly where most of the funds in his Ponzi scheme were deposited. Any large deposit can be a considerable source of profit to a bank. Assuming that the deposits returned the bank's net interest margin and grew at a random geometric rate, this article estimates that JP Morgan Chase generated $435 million in after‐tax profits from this very large account over the course of 16 years. With JP Morgan Chase the target of pending lawsuits relating to the Madoff fraud, this article's methodology and results may be of interest to litigants, prosecutors, journalists, and academics.     

Network evolution and the embedding of complex technical solutions: The case of the Leaf House network

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the connection between network evolution and technology embedding. To this end, we performed an exploratory case study of the network surrounding an eco-sustainable technology, Leaf House, Italy's first zero-carbon emission house. We apply theories on technological development within industrial networks, with a specific focus on their resource layer and on the three settings involved in embedding an innovation: “developing”, “producing”, and “using”. Our results contribute to these theories by developing four propositions on the connections between network evolution and embedding: first, technology embedding entails both downstream network expansion and upstream restrictions. Secondly, conflicts among actors increase as technology embedding approaches the producing and using settings. Third and fourth, the more the shapes a technology can assume, and the more each of these shapes involves actors acting in different settings, the easier it is to embed it. The paper concludes with managerial implications and suggestions for further research.     

Building capabilities to manage strategic alliances

Recently, academics have attributed a large part of alliance success to a firm's ability to successfully manage its alliances, also called its level of alliance management capability. We contribute to this growing body of literature by (1) verifying the impact of alliance management capability on alliance performance and (2) analyzing the drivers of alliance management capability. We measure this capability through four types of alliance learning processes and study how each of these processes affects alliance outcome. Furthermore, we take into account several possible drivers of alliance management capability such as organizational culture, commitment of the top team, alliance experience and the alliance function. We refine the results by examining how these factors affect each of the four learning processes underpinning alliance management capability. Our research model will be tested on a sample of 189 Belgian companies using PLS. We find that the commitment of the top management team is the most critical factor in explaining success with alliances.