The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe

This paper extends our previous research on East Asia to the case of 14 European countries from 1977 to 1999. According to our empirical results, intraindustry trade is again the major channel through which the business cycles of European countries become synchronized. This contrasts with existing studies that found that increased trade itself led to the synchronization of business cycles. Our findings have important implications for the adoption of a currency union, as we expect that the costs of joining a currency union will diminish significantly only when intraindustry trade becomes dominant. JEL no. E32, F33, F36, F41     

Stationary bootstrapping for common mean change detection in cross-sectionally dependent panels

Stationary bootstrapping is applied to a CUSUM test for common mean break detection in cross-sectionally correlated panel data. Asymptotic null distribution of the bootstrapped test is derived, which is the same as that of the original CUSUM test depending on cross-sectional correlation parameter. A bootstrap test using the CUSUM test with bootstrap critical values is proposed and its asymptotic validity is proved. Finite sample Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the proposed test has reasonable size while other existing tests have severe size distortion under cross-section correlation. The simulation also shows good power performance of the proposed test against non-cancelling mean changes. The simulation also shows that the theoretically justified stationary bootstrapping CUSUM test has comparable size and power relative to other, theoretically unjustified, moving block or tapered block bootstrapping CUSUM tests.     

Noise Momentum Around the World

We argue that arbitrageurs will strategically limit their initial investment in an arbitrage opportunity in anticipation of further mispricing caused by the deepening of noise traders' misperceptions. Such ‘noise momentum’ is an important determinant of the overall arbitrage process. We design an empirical strategy to capture noise momentum in a two‐period generalized error correction model. Applying it to a wide range of international spot‐futures market pairs, we document pervasive evidence of noise momentum around the world.     

Earnings Quality Effect on Corporate Excess Cash Holdings and Their Marginal Value

By using panel data from Korea’s listed firms, we find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to accumulate excess cash holdings, perhaps in an attempt to buffer themselves from information asymmetry problems. We also find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to discount the marginal value of their excess cash holdings because their shareholders appear to question the reason for such cash policy changes from the agency theory perspective. Overall, our results suggest that information asymmetry and agency problems are likely to co-exist in firms with poor earnings quality.     

Unit root tests for panel MTAR model with cross-sectionally dependent error

Unit root tests are constructed for dynamic panels whose component series are momentum threshold autoregressive processes. Gaussian null asymptotics are established for the proposed tests. A Monte–Carlo experiment is conducted to compare finite sample properties of the proposed tests. The tests are illustrated by a real data set.     

The Effects of Private Investments in Public Equity on R&D Investment in Small and Medium-Size Enterprises

This paper provides evidence that small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) use a portion of private investments in public equity (PIPEs) for current research and development (R&D) investment, hold the rest in liquidity reserves such as cash assets and working capital, and ultimately use these reserves to smooth R&D investment. That is, PIPEs may have a direct effect on R&D investment and an indirect or smoothing effect using liquidity reserves. This paper also shows that innovative SMEs such as venture businesses, inno-biz firms, and management innovative firms are more likely to use PIPEs for R&D investment than are noninnovative SMEs. The implications of this paper are that PIPEs can be used as an important source of external financing to fund R&D investment and can be particularly valuable for R&D investment in innovative SMEs.     

Earnings Benchmarks and the Information Content of Quarterly Foreign Earnings of U.S. Multinational Companies

The meeting of earnings benchmarks is considered important for investors. The chief financial officers of U.S. companies state that the three most important earnings thresholds to meet are the earnings in the same quarter last year, the analysts' earnings forecast for the current quarter, and zero earnings. These earnings benchmarks have been defined in terms of total earnings. For U.S. multinational firms, total earnings consist primarily of domestic earnings and foreign earnings. We conduct an event study where we examine (1) the stock market reaction to meeting or beating quarterly domestic and foreign earnings benchmarks and (2) the market reaction to the changes in quarterly domestic and foreign earnings, while we control for meeting or beating the analysts' earnings forecast and the analysts' earnings forecast surprise. We find that the quarterly financial statement disclosure of domestic and foreign earnings under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 131 supplies investors with valuable information that was not previously disseminated through financial analysts or other sources. The stock market reaction to meeting or beating foreign earnings from the same quarter in the prior year is stronger than the market reaction to meeting or beating domestic earnings from the same quarter in the prior year.     

Firm-based market structure analysis using competitive advertising responses

In past literature, consumer-based measures reflecting perceptions or behaviour of consumers have been used for market structure analysis. However, for developing competitive strategies, firms may need to identify market structures based on how their competitors perceive the market and how they behave. In this article, we develop a firm-based measure using advertising reaction data to drive market structure. We then test hypotheses regarding the situations where the firm-based competitive maps converge with those derived from a traditional consumer-based approach. To derive competitive maps, we collected time-series advertising and sales data for 27 SBUs in six consumer-product categories. Survey data were also collected from marketing managers to test the hypotheses. Our investigation suggests that the maps of two approaches are consistent when markets are stable and predictable.     

Information acquisition and optimal project management

This paper provides a rationale for why an organization often generates a bias in favor of a new project even after learning that its profitability will be certainly below more conventional ones. We analyze a principal–agent model with two alternative projects, one of which is to be chosen by the principal. In our model, the profitability of a project is determined by the cost of implementation. All parties are familiar with one of the projects (the known project), and thus the implementation cost of this project is common knowledge. Information on the other project (the new project), however, must be acquired by the agent. We find that the new project may be chosen in the optimal contract even when it turns out to be more costly to implement than the known project, if acquiring information is costly enough and the realized implementation cost of the new project is below a particular level. We also discuss distortion in the new project's output schedule when it is selected.     

Avoiding inheritance taxes in family firms

This article documents a novel way to transfer control in family firms while avoiding inheritance taxes: intragroup mergers. I provide evidence that avoiding inheritance taxes is the motivation behind intragroup mergers in Korea. In 1999, Korea initiated a tax reform that bumped up personal inheritance taxes by 25 percentage points. In the posttax-reform period, I find that family firms increase stock-for-stock intragroup mergers involving targets owned by heirs. Specifically, firms with heavy inheritance taxes acquire affiliates owned by heirs, who then convert private target shares into acquirer shares while avoiding inheritance taxes.