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11.
Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT). 相似文献
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This paper considers the likely impact of e–commerce and the Internet on the Australian economy. It surveys literature on the extent and development of e–commerce in Australia and its impact on the shape of the Australian economy. Evidence for the 'renewal' of the Australian economy is presented and examined, especially the question of whether Australia has enjoyed increases in productivity as a result of the production and/or use of new information and communications technology. Australia is seen as broadly well placed to benefit from the Internet and e–commerce. Traditionally isolated from the world's main economic centres and reliant on commodities in international trade, the advent of the Internet is ideal for a country in transition to a service–orientated, knowledge–based economy. As the composition of Australia's exports becomes more service–orientated and knowledge–intensive, traditional trading links with Europe and North America may strengthen relative to those with Asia. 相似文献
14.
Modelling soccer matches using bivariate discrete distributions with general dependence structure 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper copulas are used to generate bivariate discrete distributions. These distributions are fitted to soccer data from the English Premier League. An interesting aspect of these data is that the primary variable of interest, the discrete pair shots-for and shots-against, exhibits negative dependence; thus, in particular, we apply bivariate Poisson-related distributions that allow such dependence. The paper focuses on Archimedian copulas, for which the dependence structure is fully determined by a one-dimensional projection that is invariant under marginal transformations. Diagnostic plots for copula fit based on this projection are adapted to deal with discrete variables. Covariates relating to within-match contributions such as numbers of passes and tackles are introduced to explain variability in shot outcomes. The results of this analysis would appear to support the notion that playing the 'beautiful game' is an effective strategy—more passes and crosses contribute to more effective play and more shots on the goal. 相似文献
15.
Ian Molho 《Scottish journal of political economy》1986,33(4):396-419
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We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory. 相似文献
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The Productivity of US States since 1880 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study uses state-level variation in labor productivity levels at twenty-year intervals between 1880 and 1980 to examine the relative importance of institutional and geographical influences in explaining observed and persistent differences in standards of living over time and across regions. Focusing on fundamental rather than proximate influences, we find that both institutional characteristics and some physical geography characteristics account for a high proportion of the differences in state productivity levels: states with navigable waterways, a large minerals endowment, and no slaves in 1860, on average, had higher labor productivity levels throughout the sample period. However, we find little support for two other influences that have previously received attention—climate and latitude. 相似文献
19.
The Bank of England first acquired a macroeconomic model of the UK economy in early 1973, and used it for forecasting in June and July of that year. The initial model was obtained from the London Business School (LBS), but the last 14 years or so have, on the part of both the Bank and the LBS, led to developments which now make the models no closer to each other than to other large scale models of the UK. This article describes the structure and central properties of the current version of the Bank model, which has some 663 variables, 134 of which are modelled by behavioural equations, 153 by technical equations, 212 identities and 164 exogenous variables. In order to provide a transitional step between the kind of models with which most macroeconomists are familiar and the full scale version of the Bank model, one part of the article presents a very simple stylized version of the full model. This is a stepping stone to the full model which is described and analysed on a sectoral basis in Part 3, with a complete listing of equations in Part 4. Some of the simulation properties, and hence full model dynamic responses, are considered in Part 5. 相似文献
20.
The paper analyses the dynamics of some duopoly output games involving the Cournot, Market-Share and Nichol strategies. The model assumes linear price and cost functions and supposes that outputs are adjusted instantaneously at discrete time intervals. For all games considered, equilibrium is either reached after a finite number of moves or a stable approach to equilibrium occurs as t → ∞. In fact, apart from a few uninteresting cases, arising from the oversimplified form of the Market-Share strategy, all equilibrium points lie on specified parts of the firms' Cournot loci. 相似文献